278. The Great Crisis
“If everything is going well, something bad is going to happen and the better things are going, the worst will be a following disaster.”
Al Bundy, ‘Married with children’ [1]
“There were so much money that the chicken did not peck them [2] … because these were the paper money.”
Saltykov-Schedrin, ‘History of the city’
“The crisis of 1873 was more extensive in terms of the size of the disasters caused by it and in terms of the general consequences with which it responded, more harmful than all previous disasters. At first it was a purely stock exchange crisis, but little by little it captured all branches of trade and industry into its area of operation…. The crisis in Vienna was already rampant with terrible force and led to the Viennese disaster and other German stock exchanges, and in northern Germany, meanwhile, until October, the foundation of the new companies was on its previous course, like a ship, which, once launched forward, cannot immediately stop, despite the fact that the engine stopped operating…”
Max Wirth, ‘Geschichte der Handelskrisen’
1873 Pretty much everywhere [3]
Europe and the US (which finally finished the ACW) had been in a generally euphoric state of mind. There was peace everywhere (where it mattered) and all types of the modern technologies had been around with the telegraph cables laid across the Atlantic, not to mention the lesser water reservoirs, the trade was booming and the railroads being built, between 1862 and 1872 the Austrian breweries more than doubled their production (and of course there was a big growth in many other industries as well) so this was seemingly a good time to make money.
“
This resulted in emergence of many plans of enterprises that bear a clear imprint of unprofitability and yet find gullible people who are seduced by them because they are new, and because such eras of industrial excitement are characterized by the development of a propensity for gambling, while in ordinary times such projects would stall immediately when they arise among everyone's indifference… Finally, envious greed played a significant role, which forced traders to rush at the first enterprise that promised profit, and they, of course, could not calculate whether the moment had already come or when production crosses the borders determined by demand, and the use of new services or the consumption of new goods cannot go hand in hand with the speed of appearance of both.” [4]
All these enterprises required credit. The turnover of the London Clearinghouse was: in 1870 - 3,904 million pounds; in 1871 - 4,787 million pounds; in 1872 - almost 6,000 million pounds.
Already during the American Civil War, the deterioration of the currency and the high cost of gold, due to the strong participation of German capital in the Union's loans, had an extremely favorable effect on the export of American products to Europe. Many Americans came personally to European markets and were selling goods for any price, if only they were paid with a real coin. Increased trade relations between the two continents also caused the need for closer relations between the monetary and stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
In Europe the major centers of speculations were:
- Austria, which after losing everything it could, was viewed as a peaceful and politically stable country. Already in May 1869, the total amount of enterprises based in Vienna was estimated at 982 million guilders, of which 470 million had already been transferred to joint-stock companies. Austrian National Bank was forced to increase loan rates from 4.5% to 5% but it was too late.
- Hungary because it seemingly had a huge economic potential (and plenty of things to develop). In Pest at the beginning of 1868, there were only 21 joint-stock companies, the total capital of which did not exceed 30 million guilders; but twenty months later, by September 1869, there were already 99 companies representing a nominal capital of 135 million.
- Prussia/Germany, development of joint stock business characterized by the following figures: from 1790 to 1867, 225 joint-stock companies were founded in Prussia; from 1867 to 1870 - 54 joint-stock companies. After the publication of the law on joint-stock companies in June 1870, it was founded: in 1870 - 34 companies, in 1871 - 259 and in 1872 - 504.
Demand for the money needed for the speculative investments was growing and resulted in printing huge amounts of the paper money not backed by anything but this was not enough to satisfy the demands. The banks had been scared enough to try put some limits upon the speculations but this led to the crisis.
Since 1871, real bankomania broke out in Berlin and Vienna, which reached the point that even construction companies were transformed into banks, and in the end even brokerage accepted the banking organization. Until now, negociants themselves had to be held responsible for such non-performance, but now they wanted to get rid of this responsibility with the help of broker banks, which took risks for a minimal payment. The initial goal of these banks was just to act as the intermediaries but many of these banks went into risky scams, took part in railway enterprises that could only generate income in the distant future, in construction companies that suffered from too high the price of land - and thus, as soon as the crisis broke out, these banks collapsed. In Vienna, for example, the construction companies ended up purchasing at the very high prices more than 11,000 hectares within and outside the city limits, a territory which would allow to build houses for a population three times bigger than existing population of Vienna, obviously such a growth could not be expected within a reasonable period of time. Most construction companies purchased more land than their cash allowed. When crisis started they simply could not make the required payments and could not sell the land even at a reasonable loss because they were purchased at the cost many times greater than a realistic value.
Speculations with the railroad construction were on even a greater scale. Quite often the high-ranking officials or the influential aristocrats had been getting concessions using their connection and then selling them thus bypassing the regulations regarding financial solvency of the public companies. There were few very loud scandals in Germany followed by the trials and revelations regarding these practices. Among other things, it was proved that the certificates required by law that the subscription took place and part of the contributions to the shares were paid had repeatedly submitted in a fake form. “
According to the unanimous testimony of witnesses," the report sai
d, "a significant part of subscriptions to shares were made in exchange for return receipts for the relevant amounts or for a known reward.” But the general public did not pay attention and preferred promises of the high profits to the much less exciting government’s bonds.
And if things were bad in Germany, in Austria and Hungary they were even worse but at least in Hungary enthusiasm related to the railroad speculations somewhat cooled down being replaced … by the stock exchange speculations. This shift to a great degree was prompted by the news of losses caused by individual entrepreneurs due to abnormal wage conditions, as well as emergency requirements imposed on concessionaires by various public authorities, mainly by the military department. However, both in Austria and Hungary the governments had been interested in a further
private railroad development because, while costing little to the state, they were providing the links between the existing state-owned railroads. As a result, in Germany, Austria and Hungary the governments kept being generous with giving concessions to the new constructions and in Austria the railroad sector was practically controlling the whole money market because practically all financial institutions had been involved in it to one degree or another. Situation in Austria was made worse by the active participation of the aristocracy: “
When amateurs get down to business, it usually turns out even worse than when it is being operated by scammers by profession.” Members of the titled nobility had been well represented in the boards of both the railroad companies and the banks (and quite often they were the same people) without having any professional qualifications (but having connections and votes in the upper chamber of the parliament).
Germany, besides the domestic speculations, was heavily investing in the US: unlike Britain and France Prussia from the very beginning betted on Union’s victory and was extensively lending money to the federal government. The pattern persisted after the war and when the US government started paying off its debt obligations the received money were heavily invested into the railroad construction. The German investors generally did not pay attention to the fact that the American rules for creation of the publicly held companies were much less restrictive than those in Europe. Germany stimulated effective demand and expanded industrial supply capacity by increasing and adjusting capital formation. For example, Germany dramatically increased investment of
social overhead capital, such as in the management of electric power transmission lines, roads, and railroads, thereby stimulating industrial demand in that country, but similar investment stagnated or decreased in Britain. The resulting difference in capital formation accounts for the divergent levels of industrial production in the two countries and the different growth rates during and after the depression.
Strictly speaking, situation with the Austrian railroads was quite similar to one which existed in Russia during the reign of AII when Reutern was Finance Minister but under AIII the whole thing had been put under the tight state control with most of the railroads being bought out by the state and the private ones tightly regulated.
Britain and France had been less impacted by
this speculation circle because both had rather scary experiences in the 1860s and at least somewhat cooled down. The main areas of vulnerability for both of them was extensive export of the capital abroad with the inevitable participation in some risky local schemas. At worst, the economic situation was “stagnant” but without the noticeable declines. However, in Britain there was heavy unemployment in the basic industries of coal, iron and steel, engineering, and shipbuilding.
Russia had its railroad construction under the state control and the real estate construction boom pretty much was not happening. The big cities kept growing but there was too much land available in and around them to hike prices to the crazy levels. Pretty much the only big-scale housing constructors had been the industrialists building the settlements for their workers but, due to the fact that the industrial enterprises tended to be on the outskirts of the cities, so were these settlements.
Anyway, the prevailing pattern outside centers of the major cities still tended to be the individual houses and it was shifting toward the “European” pattern rather slowly and not on the scale allowing nation-wide (or even capital-wide) scam. Even in the center of Moscow the blocks of the big modern multi-apartment had been intermixed with those of the small traditional individual houses with almost rural backyards.
While the numbers of public stock companies kept growing, they still were much less spread than in Europe or the US and as a result scope of the stock exchange speculations simply physically could not reach the same level as in Western Europe and the US. Which, of course, was not excluding the big problems like favoritism, bribery and swindling. Anyway, in the early 1870s too much attention and finances had been turned to the East to be seriously impacted by what was happening on the West.
Most of the exports to Europe remained agricultural and, while subject to the grown competition, not really dependent upon the ongoing processes because people need to eat. Of course, the general situation had its negative impact on the industrial exports into Poland, Hungary and Ottoman Empire with a resulting slowdowns in some industrial areas. The relative stability of the Russian domestic markets increasing their attractiveness for the foreign investments.
The US after the ACW accelerated construction of the railroads and while neither the banks nor trade had been heavily involved in the speculative insanity, there was plenty of opportunities to swindle the general public. When a planned route had been passing through the state-owned lands, the company was getting for free a strip few kilometers wide on both sides of the trucks and this allowed the companies to sell it relatively cheap creating new settlements along the route and thus having consumers of the railroad services. Of course, in more densely populated Eastern states situation was trickier and the railroad companies had to deal with the states, counties and even individual so the big-scale projects going further west were more popular.
But how much further to the west?
Most of the potentially valuable and settled areas on the “west” belonged to Mexico even if, except for some areas on the Pacific coast, they were sparsely populated. Of course, as far as the ruling Liberal Party of Mexico was involved, the American investments and railroads construction through the Mexican territory were more than welcomed and at some point Benito Juarez (admittedly, when he was hard pressed during the ongoing civil war) had been ready to offer the generous concession including rights of the exterritoriality and military presence. Of course, after his troubles diminished he became less generous but still quite accommodating.
Attractiveness of the East-to-West intercontinental railroad(s) was two-fold:
- With the proper agreements it would allow the American settlers to start farming on the Mexican territories with their produce being transported by rail to the Atlantic ports and shipped to Europe: so far cotton and grain remained two major American export items and cotton lost some of its positions due to the growing competition from Egypt, India and Brazil, not to mention disruption of the industry caused by the ACW. This idea still was to a great degree a wishful thinking because it would require the international agreements which the Mexican government, now reasonably secure, may or may not agree with.
- The US was widely using silver coin and the main sources of it were in Mexican Alta California even if the extraction was mostly done by the American companies (courtesy of Mr. Juarez).
The railroad industry was the largest employer outside agriculture in the US and involved large amounts of money and risk. A large infusion of cash from speculators caused spectacular growth in the industry and in the construction of docks, factories, and ancillary facilities. Most
capital was involved in projects offering no immediate or early returns.
The bubble bursts.
While the general mode of a drunken speculation had been still prevailing in Austria, the financial professionals started their retreat. The credit institution and other large banks were beginning to refuse to accept any dubious pledges and mainly securities intended for exchange speculation; the credit of debtors of these institutions on current accounts has been limited. But they already had huge volume of the risky papers on their hands, which they were trying to get rid of thus causing fall of their value on a stock exchange starting from the April. On May 5 and 6, the fall in the rates of speculation securities went faster. On May 7, fifteen banks met to discuss measures that could keep further successes of the decomposition process. On May 8, the harbingers of the storm already appeared: about a hundred insolvency statements were made on the stock exchange. A new meeting of bank representatives was held. Losses in the courses have already extended to 300 million guilders. And on then the bubble burst.
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In the days of May 8 and 9 the Vienna stock exchange was literally insane with fear. The stormy scenes that were played out there were almost revolutionary; no description can give an idea of the explosion of rabies to which the victims indulged. The vast majority of all securities listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange quickly, irresistibly lost all value in these two days.” All exchange transactions have absolutely stopped. There was complete chaos. All attempts to at least slow down the crisis failed, including decree of FJI which pretty much gave carte blanch to the Austrian National Bank to do whatever is necessary. The crisis had been spreading, impacting first Hungary and Germany and then expanding across the Atlantic.
In Berlin, the railway empire of
Bethel Henry Strousberg crashed after a ruinous settlement with the government of
Romania, bursting the speculation bubble in Germany. The panic came and became known as the Gründerkrach or "Founders' Crash"
In the US there were few contributing factors:
- The decision of the German Empire to cease minting silver thaler coins in 1871 caused a drop in demand and downward pressure on the value of silver, which, in turn, affected the US since much of the supply of silver was mined there. As a result, the US Congress passed the Coinage Act of 1873, which changed the national silver policy. The act was hurting interests of the American silver mining companies (and hit Mexican government on the pocket) and also reduced the domestic money supply, raising interest rates and hurting farmers and others who normally carried heavy debt loads. The perception of US instability in its monetary policy caused investors to shy away from long-term obligations, particularly long-term bonds.
- In September 1873, Jay Cooke & Company, a major component of the country's banking establishment, found itself unable to market several million dollars in its recent transcontinental highly speculative (basically, the railroad to nowhere) railroad project. The company expected the usual injection of the German investments but an ongoing crisis with a sharp increase in interest rates in Germany has led to a massive repatriation of capital from other countries, including the United States. Liquidity was gone, refinancing became difficult. Jay Cooke’s financial company, which relied most on short-term loans, was unable to repay $15 million bonds on time. Just as Cooke was about to swing a $300 million government loan in September 1873, reports circulated that his firm's credit had become nearly worthless. On 18 September, the firm declared bankruptcy.
- The major fires in Chicago and Boston seriously hurt the insurance companies.
Getting additional fundings for the railroads already became more difficult after Crédit Mobilier scandal.
On September 4, 1872, the Sun broke the story. The newspaper reported that Crédit Mobilier had received $94 million in contracts for building a railroad worth only $50 million. The executives pocketed the excess $44 million. Then, part of the excess cash and $9 million in discounted stock was used to bribe several Washington politicians for laws, funding, and regulatory rulings favorable to the company.
The failure of Jay Cooke's bank set off a chain reaction of bank failures and temporarily closed the
New York Stock Exchange. Factories began to lay off workers as the country slipped into depression. In NY 25% of workers became unemployed.
The New York Stock Exchange closed for ten days starting on 20 September. By November 1873, some 55 of the nation's railroads had failed, and another 60 had gone bankrupt by the first anniversary of the crisis.
[16] Construction of new rail lines, formerly one of the backbones of the economy, plummeted from 7,500 miles (12,100 km) of track in 1872 to just 1,600 miles (2,600 km) in 1875,
[16] and 18,000 businesses failed between 1873 and 1875. Unemployment peaked in 1878 at 8.25%. Building construction was halted, wages were cut, real estate values fell, and corporate profits vanished.
The railroad construction, which prior to 1873 heavily relied upon the foreign investments, went into a prolonged crisis causing numerous strikes that had been violently suppressed by the state militias and even federal troops (in Reading Railroad Massacre of 1877 hich 10 to 16 people were killed and between 20 and 203 were injured) and eventually crushing the lumber industry as well.
With the depression, ambitious railroad building programs crashed across the South, leaving most states deep in debt and burdened with heavy taxes. Retrenchment was a common response of the South to state debts during the depression. One by one, each state fell to the Democrats in the South, and the
Republicans lost power.
General outcome pretty much everywhere was a shift from the liberal economic policies toward protectionism and stricter regulations.
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[1] Quoted by memory so the precise wording may be slightly different.
[2] Russian expression “so much money that the chicken do not peck them ”.
[3] In the “civilized world”, of course. 😉
[4] Wirth