No GNW (or “Peter goes South”)

Does this sound plausible?
Absolutely, but I think a gradual success approach works well. Defy them once and side with his OTL preferred dude with a small thing that pans out. Then emboldened by that success he gets another one and from there the restraint is off.

Edit: you'd do need to avoid him believing in his own superiority after though. Perhaps by making the 2nd success only by lucky chance. Enough to scare him, but still prove him right.

The same to you!
Thank you!
 
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“Counter-reformation”
271. “Counter-reformation”
“... The Emperor can arbitrarily change the laws, but before changing or repealing them must obey them himself.”
D. N. Bludov
The most important thing is to arrange on a solid basis and put into the right attitude towards the highest central government zemstvo and local government, because through them the supreme power can enter into closer ties with the people.”
Senator N.P.Semenov
“The absurdity of urban self-government of Russian cities has long been recognized by the government.”
Alexander III​

[credits: A lot of text and quotations are shamelessly borrowed from Е.П. Толмачев «Александр III и его время». Lousy Google translations are being fixed to the best of my abilities but I really could not find the good equivalents for some of the administrative entities: they were in archaic Russian with no obvious modern equivalent. Of course, the dates and circumstances are changed appropriately including dealing with the counter-reformers; on this subject special thanks to @dunHozzie for helping to generate the idea. 🤗]


Russia late 1860s - early 1870s

Domestic affairs.

Predictably, reforms of the previous reign produced a strong negative reaction from those members of the nobility who (justifiably) considered them as a serious infringement on their class interests. To a certain (and quite noticeable) degree these feelings were coinciding with the personal feelings of AIII himself by a number of reasons:
  • As the 1st noble of the Russian Empire he considered himself a protector of the nobility’s interests.
  • In his opinion the reforms of his father went too far along the road of decentralizing the government thus weakening the central authority and creating the de facto independent entities which often were going in a completely wrong (in his opinion) direction .
  • So far, these newly created institutions had a very questionable balance of the successes and failures.
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In addition, the “counter-reform” movement had very eloquent supporters like Pobedonostsev and Katkov, influential publisher of the conservative “Moskovskiye Vedomosti”, who had on his employment a number of the very active journalists skilled in bringing up and blowing out of proportion any noticeable screwup of the “liberal institutions”. This was rather easy both in the cases of Zemstvos, which were as often as not inefficient in performing their assigned duties, and in the new judicial system which was producing numerous showcases of the violent criminals being acquitted based upon the jury “feelings” and the judges and/or prosecutors not performing their duties properly. While being a capable ideologist, as Minister of Justice Pobedonostsev, not being even a mediocre administrator, proved to be completely unsuitable for the position and so far was retaining his post exclusively due to the personal respect AIII felt to his former tutor.
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One of the initiators of “counter-reform” trend was the nobility leader of the Alatyr district of Simbirsk province A. D. Pazukhin. "He was a man of a big mind, but a mind that is too straightforward and therefore prone to illusions. He was sincerely convinced that the order of government of Russia was almost ideal under Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich, and that we should return to the habits and mores of that time.” His program Pazukhin formulated in the article “The current state of Russia and the class issue”: “The great evil of reforms of the past reign was expressed in the fact that they cut the class privileges of the nobility. Hence, the task of the present should be to restore the destroyed: it is necessary to reform zemstvo and city institutions and return from the classless pronciple to the class-based one ; then Russia will on the historical road” from which it deviated during the previous reign.

He was given a high profile position the Ministry of Interior and started writing proposals regarding reforming Zemstvo. In March 1878, the project was ready.
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It provided for the creation of the institution of zemstvo chiefs and the reform of the zemstvo. The zemstvo chief appointed by the government had to unite both judicial and administrative power in his person. A new system of elections to zemstvo institutions was proposed, instead of the existing council - an executive body, a committee of zemstvo affairs, composed of a local administration with the participation of two members from the zemstvo.
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The program proposed by the Minister of Interior, D.A.Tolstoy [1] boiled down to the following:
1) it was envisaged to create administrative bodies of management of peasant affairs;
2) the role of public self-government in zemstvo and city institutions was minimized;
3) the power of the Minister of Internal Affairs "to supervise zemstvo, city and peasant institutions" was strengthened;
4) the elective principle "when filling positions in local government" was limited and replaced by the administrative appointments;
5) role of the nobility in the local governing bodies increased;
6) “insignificant” cases were transferred from the courts to the local administrators.
1672011100233.jpeg

AIII generally liked the proposal because it was fitting into his set of ideas regarding centralization but it faced a serious opposition in the State Council. Chairman of the Department of Laws Baron A. P. von Nicolay remarked: “It will not be very difficult to convince the peasant that the new institution is nothing more than an indirect restoration of the serfdom-time police, that the peasant population is again given to the full power of the landlords who seek to restore serfdom.

Minister of the Imperial Court argued that the project will just further increase complexity of a government by creating instead of one collegial peasant governing entity several independent zemstvo chiefs, with extensive power and not obeying anyone except the governor.
In the State Council (which was not, yet, expanded) majority voted against the project but AIII sided with the minority ordering to create this institution and to transfer to the newly created chiefs the minor cases from the local courts, which was in a violation of the existing law regarding separation of the judicial and executive powers.

It did not take long for this institution to demonstrate itself as a really lousy idea. To start with, the initial rules regarding selection of the candidates for these positions proved to be impractically high: a 200 hectares of land or other real estate for 7,500 rubles, have higher education, three years of service as a zemstvo mediator, justice of the peace, or a member of the provincial peasant affairs committee. They had been lowered and then lowered even further so the whole system ended up with a majority of the zemstvo chiefs being people absolutely unqualified for any serious administrative position behaving in dictatorial manner toward the peasants, ignoring decisions of the village assemblies, extorting bribes, beating people, etc. The complaints and bad publicity had been piling up but AIII was reluctant to reconsider his decision and the institution remained in existence for quite a few years [2].

The next attack was on the Zemstvo as institution. Not because it was provably inefficient but because it was considered “classless” and elective - a grave sin in Pobedonostsev’s view. He wrote: “It is necessary to change the current nature of zemstvo institutions, irresponsible, separated from the central administration and given to all random choices.” The initial Pazukhin’s project passed through the number of changes and, in theory, zemstvo remained classless and elective but application of these principles was curtailed and a new elective system was heavily favoring the nobility while the administrative control increased. Alexander signed this document.

In uezd zemstvo councils, the proportion of nobles increased from 55% to 72% compared to the 60s, and in gubernia councils - from 90% to 94%.
Deputies with a right of vote from peasants were now: in uezd zemstvo assemblies - 31% (instead of the previous 37%), in gubernia assemblies - 2% (instead of the previous 7%). The number of voting members from the bourgeoisie decreased from 17% to 14% in uezd zemstvo assemblies and from 11% to 8% in gubernia assemblies. The content of the activities of the Zemstvo councils has not changed. However, all Zemstvo activities related to the rural population had to be coordinated with the zemstvo chiefs.

Zemstvos now being under state control, their status changed to one of the governmental institutions and their chairmen had been getting the official ranks. The competence of the zemstvo continued to be limited to the management of local economic affairs. However, the new provision gave the zemstvos the right to issue binding regulations on the local population on a wider range of issues. This includes precautions against fires, sanitary living conditions of the population, arrangement and maintenance of piers, crossings, transportation, some food supply issues, etc.

The next target were the city councils. It was considered that they have too many representatives of the merchant-manufacturer class and are too independent. After much argument the restrictive property census for the voters had been established and the governors got a right to interfere into their decisions. This was one more stupidity. In capital cities, no more than 0.7% of the population could enjoy the right to participate in elections. In other cities, the number of voters decreased by 5-10 times. Of the 336 urban settlements in 154, the number of voters did not reach 100 people. A broad interpretation of governor's rights created great opportunities for arbitrariness. Especially since the entire leadership - the mayor, his deputy, city secretary, members of the councils - was approved by the governors, and candidates for the posts of mayors of Moscow and St. Petersburg were approved by the emperor.

Now there was a time to deal with the legal system. The counter-reformers demanded its total dismantling and return to the pre-reform system.
1672018591014.jpeg

The Judicial Statutes had been intensively criticized by the editor of "Moskovskiye Vedomosti" M. H. Katkov and the closest adviser to the tsar, publisher of "Citizen" Prince V. P. Meshchersky. Both of them had been acting as the spokespersons for Pobedonostsev (who actually took an active part in creation of the new judicial system during the reign of AII). The main targets of attacks were the immunity of judges, the principle of their independence and irremovability, the transparency of legal proceedings and the jury. Meshchersky wrote in his diary (which he was reading to AIII):
All of Russia has learned with bitter … experience that the jury trial is an outrage and abomination, that the publicity of the court is poison, that the irremovability of judges is absurdity, etc. Meanwhile, what a lack of courage in altering the statutes, what a seemingly wise caution, and in fact what a fear of doing firmly and simply what is needed to fulfill the desire of the whole of Russia and to strengthen the autocracy in the eyes of the judicial department.”

Katkov in his publication widely used expressions "judicial republic", "street court", "anti-government Senate", with which he tried to brand the jury court and the criminal cassation department of the government Senate. And, of course, all these detestable institutions must be dismantled.

Alexander found himself in an ambiguous position. On one hand, as an autocrat he was inclined to agree with at least some of the arguments of the counter-reform clique but, OTOH, just because he was a convinced autocrat, he was not going to tolerate being lectured by his subjects on how the autocracy should look like: he was one and only judge on this. Pobedonostsev was politely removed from his ministerial position to Ober-Procurator of the Most Holy Synod. Meshchersky was asked to stop preaching and, because this was perhaps the first time when Alexander was openly unhappy with him, he desisted because he had a lot to lose [3].

Katkov was discretely invited to a certain newly-created department of the Ministry of Interior where he was explained that the Imperial Ukaz was granting “freedom of press but not unbridledness” and that the open disrespect to the most important state institutions, like the Senate, may fell into a category outlined by the law written by the recently retired Minister of Justice and, as such, will end up involving a close familiarity with the judicial branch functioning based on the principles he is so vocally advocating: removable judges, no jury, no transparency and no right to the appeal. As an alternative, he may continue to express his opinions but in a more restrained way and without presuming to instruct the Emperor about his duties. Just as two other persons mentioned above, Katkov was not a fool: even if the outlined perspective looked as something of a low probability, an amount of various unpleasant things of a high probability that could be done by the government was big enough so he promised to behave and to tame his journalists.

The judicial system survived with one change: Ministry of Justice established a special commission to handle cases of the judicial misconduct and recommend punishments all the way to judge’s dismissal.

At least for a while the counter-reform movement was over. The damage done by it was, fortunately, mostly social with a limited economic impact but it was not negligible and sooner or letter the counter-reforms would have to be undone.

Foreign Affairs.
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In the early summer of 1871, Chancellor/Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Gorchakov came with the intention of asking for dismissal from his post. Count Ignatiev (at that time a prominent figure in the Russian diplomacy) convinced him not to do so on the pretext that the charm of the name of the prince would support Russia's authority in the diplomatic world. Naturally, Gorchakov, conceited and not wishing to lose his 40,000 salary, willingly succumbed to these beliefs. According to contemporaries, in the intimate circle of his admirers, he called himself Talleyrand and Metternich, and even sometimes most sincerely imagined himself equal in strength to Bismarck, a gladiator in the arena of diplomats. When Gorchakov told Alexander III that he intends to bear, as long as the forces allow, the burden of managing the ministry, N. P. Ignatiev began to tell the prince almost every day that the situation is terrible, that every day you can expect a new attempt on the life of the sovereign, the beating of all educated people and the destruction of the best parts of Moscow and St. Petersburg Frightened by all this, the Chancellor went abroad again.
1672022561327.png

Ignatiev’s idea was to keep Girchakov in place until he (Ignatiev) manages to position himself as his successor bypassing Gorchakov’s deputy, N. Girs. Girs knew about this and was desperate. His funds were very scarce, and meanwhile he had to take out his daughters and host the diplomatic corps. For lack of money, of course, it was done extremely modestly. Therefore, the ambassadors, especially the German one - Schweinitz, looked down on him.

After long hesitation, having gone through all the candidates for the post of Minister of Foreign Affairs, Alexander III finally entrusted the management of the Foreign Ministry to N. K Girs. The appointment of Girs, a quiet and inexpressive old man in his appearance, as opposed to the brilliant prince-chancellor, surprised the entire titled nobility. To address this issue the official newspaper of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs published an article explaining that from now on the main concentration of the efforts will be on the domestic issues and non-interference into the foreign affairs unless honor of the Russian Empire is involved.

As the head of foreign policy, Geers was an obedient performer of the will of Alexander III, but had his own system of views on the strategy of tsarist diplomacy. He was committed to contacts with European countries and is particularly concerned about cooperation with Germany. According to contemporaries, Geers was distinguished by modesty, kindness, softness, accessibility, polite and affectionate treatment, extraordinary charming courtesy.

Taking into an account that AIII defined his role as “I am my own Foreign Minister”, Girs’ function was mostly one of a competent secretary which suited him just fine.

There was a rumor that every time he was traveling to Gatchina for the meeting with the emperor, his deputy was going to the Kazan Cathedral to light a candle and pray that the meeting would go well.


____________
[1] As I already commented, there were plenty of members of that family all over the place. And during that time the ministers, especially of the Interior, had been changing in a fast rate. A.K. Tolstoy in his “History of the Russian State…” compared them with the children going on the sledges down the hill. D.A. Tolstoy, who was before this appointment Minister of Education, had very few qualifications except for being a conservative and managed to screw up in both positions.
[2] In OTL it was abolished only after the February Revolution but ITTL its life is going to be shorter. Please remind me to get rid of it within the reign of AIII. 😉
[3] His newspaper was getting every year a generous subsidy from the Ministry of Court and AIII was usually approving his numerous requests for various favors.
 
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“... The Emperor can arbitrarily change the laws, but before changing or repealing them must obey them himself.”
D. N. Bludov
"Is that a law? If so can I change it too?"
- The Emperor probably
As the 1st noble of the Russian Empire he considered himself a protector of the nobility’s interests.
What a noble cause
One of the initiators of “counter-reform” trend was the nobility leader of the Alatyr district of Simbirsk province A. D. Pazukhin. "He was a man of a big mind, but a mind that is too straightforward and therefore prone to illusions. He was sincerely convinced that the order of government of Russia was almost ideal under Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich, and that we should return to the habits and mores of that time.” His program Pazukhin formulated in the article “The current state of Russia and the class issue”: “The great evil of reforms of the past reign was expressed in the fact that they cut the class privileges of the nobility. Hence, the task of the present should be to restore the destroyed: it is necessary to reform zemstvo and city institutions and return from the classless pronciple to the class-based one ; then Russia will on the historical road”
The next attack was on the Zemstvo as institution. Not because it was provably inefficient but because it was considered “classless” and elective - a grave sin in Pobedonostsev’s view.
He's like a opposite day marxist!
Its amazing!
Baron A. P. von Nicolay remarked: “It will not be very difficult to convince the peasant that the new institution is nothing more than an indirect restoration of the serfdom-time police, that the peasant population is again given to the full power of the landlords who seek to restore serfdom.
which was in a violation of the existing law regarding separation of the judicial and executive powers.
To start with, the initial rules regarding selection of the candidates for these positions proved to be impractically high: a 200 hectares of land or other real estate for 7,500 rubles, have higher education, three years of service as a zemstvo mediator, justice of the peace, or a member of the provincial peasant affairs committee
So they were right
Landlords, high society, ruling over a bunch of peasants, ignores preexisting judiciary and executive laws
Meets all checkmarks
They had been lowered and then lowered even further so the whole system ended up with a majority of the zemstvo chiefs being people absolutely unqualified
And then they tried so hard to not be that it got upside down
 
"Is that a law? If so can I change it too?"
- The Emperor probably

What a noble cause


He's like a opposite day marxist!
Its amazing!



So they were right
Landlords, high society, ruling over a bunch of peasants, ignores preexisting judiciary and executive laws
Meets all checkmarks

And then they tried so hard to not be that it got upside down
The counter-reformers had a platform which was seemingly logical from their class point of view, they had eloquent defenders of that platform and enough clout to push it through.

What they failed to understand was that a big part of their class were people motivated first and foremost by their individual interests and by their personal qualities not well suited for the leadership, especially when it involves very broad powers.

Second big problem was in the fact that the nobility already lost most of its economic value and kept loosing the rest of it at a high speed. Keeping it artificially as a privileged class was just creating irritation without any benefits to the regime. Actually, even worse, it was cutting into the regime’s support base.

So, Pobedonostsev & Co instead of strengthening the regime, which was their goal, were undermining it.
 
Thanks for update
Katkov in his publication widely used expressions "judicial republic", "street court", "anti-government Senate", with which he tried to brand the jury court and the criminal cassation department of the government Senate.
"Libertarians/libertines in robes" gravely missing :)
just because he was a convinced autocrat, he was not going to tolerate being lectured by his subjects on how the autocracy should look like: he was one and only judge on this
Ah, the first and the most serious problem for all intellectual supporters of strong government since Plato.
"Who are you to f***ing lecture me?"


Girchakov
Typo. Gorchakov.

Hm. In OTL great advantage for Katkov was Polish rebellion of 1863 year. Katkov was hardliner and relentlessly crticize soft, liberal, cosmopolitan elements of Imperial bureaucracy (A.K. Tolstoy even mocked him in one of his poems, compare Katkov with duke of Alba). In this timeline Poland is independent state, so I wonder on which qustion Katkov catch his momentum.
He's like a opposite day marxist!
Horshesoe theory! Horseshoe theory!

(By the way, one of the most distingushed Russian specialist on subject of conservatism of XIX century, Andrey Teslya even compares social ideal of Pobedonostsev with Lao-Zi)
 
Ah, the first and the most serious problem for all intellectual supporters of strong government since Plato.
"Who are you to f***ing lecture me?"
Plato should have done it himself tbh
Yeah he didnt want to rule but according to his philosophy thats exactly why he should've tried rather than staying in some cave in his academy
 
Thanks for update

"Libertarians/libertines in robes" gravely missing :)
It is mid-XIX and the Russian language was lacking certain terminology. 😂
Ah, the first and the most serious problem for all intellectual supporters of strong government since Plato.
"Who are you to f***ing lecture me?"

That’s the point. In the properly organized autocratic places the supporters are opening their mouthes only for two purposes: (a) food consumption and (b) praising autocrat’s decisions and actions. The only premised occasion when they are allowed to imitate vox populi and call for the government’s actions is when they are instructed to do so by the government. So, logically, AIII was not a true autocrat. 😂

Typo. Gorchakov.

Thanks
Hm. In OTL great advantage for Katkov was Polish rebellion of 1863 year.

On this he was pretty much a mainstream: the rebellion was extremely unpopular in Russia.

Katkov was hardliner and relentlessly crticize soft, liberal, cosmopolitan elements of Imperial bureaucracy (A.K. Tolstoy even mocked him in one of his poems, compare Katkov with duke of Alba).

“Katkov, our Duke Alba, would be straightening their noses…” 😂
In this timeline Poland is independent state, so I wonder on which qustion Katkov catch his momentum.

Well, there are plenty of people holding a firm belief that AII was going too fast and in a wrong direction. Objectively, his agrarian reforms were hurting the landed nobility and in the city dumas were opening a way for the bourgeoisie. So this part should not be a major problem. Not so the judicial part: he was, AFAIK, supporting reform all the way to Zasulich trial and, to be fair, his changed attitude is easy to understand because combination of the mob pressure on the jury and questionable legality of the actions of the presiding judge (Koni) produced a show case scenario of how the system may go wrong (cherry on the top was Koni’s admission that he most probably misbehaved but will not go away because the principle of judges’ immunity is a top priority). ITTL the precedent is absent so Katkov may just acting on a principle formulated by “general Krutitsky”: “all reforms are bad”.

Horshesoe theory! Horseshoe theory!
“In Moscow I felt myself as being among the old Party comrades” Ribbentrop, 1939. 😜

But, to be fair to the Russian reactionaries of that period, in their practices they were innocent children comparing to their political opposites.

(By the way, one of the most distingushed Russian specialist on subject of conservatism of XIX century, Andrey Teslya even compares social ideal of Pobedonostsev with Lao-Zi)
But wasn’t Lao-Zi proponent of a limited government? This was, AFAIK, not Pobedonostsev’s ideal. OTOH, “do nothing” ideal for the rulers was highly praised by Saltykov-Schedrin (a liberal) in “Unique one”.
 
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Which way to go? (#1)
272. Which way to go? (#1)
Don’t be fools wasting time on your own inventions, copy” [1]
“If you have a fleet, you will find the harbors!”
Peter I
“To have a fleet, it's not enough to have shores.”
Admiral P. Chchagov


The quarrels about the right directions were not limited to the social issues - in the view of the modern developments there was no clear direction for the future development of the Russian army and navy. As formulated by AIII, the main task of the Russian armed forces was to provide a reliable protection of the empire against any outside threat and for this both army and navy had to be modern and powerful. But, as with most of the broad definitions, the hell was in the details and in both cases there were plausible options, some of them almost or completely mutually exclusive.

The navy.
The opinions had been varying in a wide range.
In a purely technological area:
  • Experimenting with the Russian original designs and technologies. The main proponent of this direction was rear-admiral A.A.Popov who already distinguished himself as constructor of the monitors, the 1st Russian ironclad, Peter the Great, and the armored cruisers (promoting the idea of the fast ships with a powerful artillery for acting on the ocean communications; potentially, against Britain) with much more tofollow. [2] Of course, he was not really inventing things from the scratch but definitely was a strong proponent to the creative approach to the naval construction.
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  • On the opposite side of the spectrum was … surprise, surprise, Katkov who, of course, was not a naval specialist by any stretch of imagination but became a big supporter of the Russian naval development and from time to time was making some valid points (validity of his position in this specific case is a separate issue). His idea was that Russian can save money on experimenting and just copy what was already there (Britain being a model). From a purely financial perspective he was probably right but this would mean that technologically Russian Navy would be doomed to lag behind (and the RN at that time was in some areas lagging behind the French). Another at least somewhat valid aspect of his argument was that 1860s - early 1870s were period of the extensive and expensive naval experimentation with, so far, no obvious “correct” trend being found and that probably a serious analysis of what is available could allow to chose the good solutions based upon others’ mistakes. But this was easier said than done and by just waiting for the right direction the Russian shipbuilding industry will find itself lacking the needed technology and competence.
In the area of composition:
  • There was an “extreme” party of the young naval officers who questioned real usefulness of the large armored ships and preached superiority of the smaller fast ships and boats carrying the newly-invented torpedos and mines.
  • The opposite party had been stressing the mighty ironclads.
Katkov, with his extensive governmental and commercial connections had been preaching intensive development of the commercial fleet both as a base for the possible conversion into the armed raiders and as a school for the naval cadres. Quite correctly, he was also pointing out that the Russian Empire is short of the “natural sailors” and that as a result the Russian Navy has the crews that mostly consist of the people who did not have any previous seagoing experience. The conclusion was that, with Britain being a predominantly naval power and Russia predominantly land power, the easiest way for Russia to hit Britain where it really hurts is to have an available fleet of the fast ships, including the armed merchant ships, operating on the oceanic trade routes.

With a passage of time he kept changing his opinions to be in synch with the government’s line and started praising the powerful ironclads as the main criteria of the naval power. Besides comparison to the British Navy, he was extremely concerned with the fact that while the Russian Pacific Fleet consists only of the light ships, post-Taiping China is buying the ironclads from Britain. Actually, this was not just his individual fantasy.

Intermission. Far Eastern framework. The Taiping War has greatly changed the political situation in China. Even before it was completed, the Qing government began partial reforms within the framework of the "self-strengthening" policy. But the process dragged on for a long time - it wasn't enough of money, weapons and other material support. China started it own weapons production producing all types of the army weapons except for the heavy artillery.
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The Qing government, based on the current military and political situation, refused to accept the Russian proposal of assistance in the formation of a new type of armed forces and preferred to ask for the British help. The troops trained in European style had a relatively modern weaponry and were staffed with Han-born volunteers and Green Banner soldiers. Russian observers noted the rather high quality of training of Chinese infantry and artillerymen. Since the 1860s, the construction of military steam ships at the Fuzhou shipyard began. Additionally, the warships were purchased abroad - mainly in England and Germany. Combat qualities of the Chinese-built ships were somewhat worse than those of European-built ones, but, nevertheless they were quite comparable by their technical parameters.

1672094805020.jpeg

It was anybody’s guess what are the Chinese long-term plans and a potential wish to get back the lost territories on the North did not look as an unrealistic option. Of course, with the regional logistic being pretty much the same as in the XVIII century, it would be rather difficult for Li Hongzhang, who was pretty much controlling the North, to launch an offensive across the Amur (and he was at least somewhat pro-Russian) but who could say anything for sure about the Chinese policy and plans? True, after 1866 the Brits had been gradually squeezed out by the German instructors and weapons but this did not automatically meant that the Chinese became friendly to Russia. The fact remained that Russia did not have any significant land and naval force on the Far East and that the land communication with the region was still more or less limited to the navigation by the Amur.

Which meant that the regional railroads of the Western and Eastern Siberia must be consolidated with a speedy construction. of the missing pieces allowing travel all the way at least to Nicholaevsk-on-Amur and preferably to Vladivostok and connection to the European Russia via already existing railroads of the CA and Ural. Which, in turn, meant considerable expenses and perhaps even shortage of the technical resources because construction of the railroads in European Russia could not be stopped by the economic and strategic reasons. It also meant that Russia will benefit from having a friendly balancing force on the Far East and that the already friendly relations with Japan have to be further strengthened. But one of the tools for reaching this goal was increased export of the Russian goods which Japan wanted: steel and iron, steam engines, cotton fabrics, coal, etc. Which could be done only by speeding construction of the Trans-Siberian railroad.


Back to the navy.
There was, of course the third, “centrist” group which was arguing that a fleet must have all types of the ships because to a great degree they are mutually-complementary in their functionality. The top brass in the Russian Naval Ministry, probably because they were mostly traditionalists, belonged to this camp. And, being (unless AIII explicitly objected) the decision makers, they had a final say on the subject.

Of course, to build a fleet one needs the naval guns and in this area the most useful proved to be cooperation of the Obukhov Steel Plant and Krupp’s plant in the Southern Russia. The creation of most of the guns went according to the standard scheme. The guns were designed by Russian officers of the Artillery Committee of the Main Artillery Directorate (AK GAU) or the Maritime Technical Committee (MTK) of the Maritime Ministry. Then the drawings were handed over to Krupp, where his engineers developed working drawings and made a prototype of the gun. Further, Krupp's engineers and Russian officers carried out factory tests, and according to their results they made changes to the project. After that, Krupp very quickly produced the ordered batch of guns. And in parallel, German documentation, and often semi-finished products, were delivered to Obukhov plant, and even before the delivery of the last Krupp cannon, the production of these guns began. [3]

In the mid-1960s, Krupp developed a system of rifled guns, which had been called the system of 1867. The bodies of the guns were made of steel, the locks were Krupp's wedge systems. The shooting was carried out with shells of 2-2.8 calibers long with a lead shell. In 1868-1869 Obukhov plant rifled 27 smoothbore 8-inch Krupp guns, delivered in 1864. Total by 1870. The Naval Ministry had a fifty-one 8-inch gun of the system of 1867. In 1868 Krupp rifled 19 9-inch smoothbore guns and after this was done got an order on 22 new 9-inch guns. In 1869 Krupp produced 4 11-inch guns of the system of 1867.
The first 11-inch gun on the Obukhov plant was produced in 1873 and all guns produced afterwards were installed in the turrets.
The first 12-inch gun on Obukhov plant was made in 1872.

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Competition between the casemate- and turret-placement was not, yet, over and the first Russian sea-going ironclad, “Peter the Great” had combination of both: the main caliber guns in two turrets and smaller artillery in a casemate. The long-term ship-building program planned: for the Baltic Fleet 16 battleships, 13 cruisers, 100 destroyers; for the Black Sea Fleet 8 battleships, 2 cruisers and 19 destroyers; for the Pacific Ocean (Siberian Flotilla) 8 gunboats and 6 destroyers. However, the changing geopolitical situation and technological developments resulted in the numerous corrections of that program. Among other things, according to the new plan the Pacific Fleet had to be strengthened by 4 or 5 battleships and the initial small torpedo boats (23 tons)
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had to be augmented by the bigger sea-going destroyers of 160 tons.
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___________
[1] Presumably (just a hearsay) from a speech of some prominent Soviet academic on the idea of developing original computers vs. copying American ones. Somewhere in the 1960s - 70s.
[2] In OTL his name was associated with a highly controversial project of the “round ships”, the ironclads for the coastal defenses. Rather unjustly, they were pretty much the only “lasting legacy” by which he was remembered. In OTL the whole debate happened in 1880s and Katkov, to be fair, was basing his argument about copying on the big expenses caused by the round-ships experiment and a poor condition of the Russian finances after the war of 1877-78. ITTL in the absence of this war, much better financial situation and absence of the round-ships experiment, his position is much weaker except for saving money part.
[3] In OTL this schema had been used in cooperation with real Krupp plant all the way to 1914.
 
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Don’t be fools wasting time on your own inventions, copy” [1]
"What a good idea! Who did you copy that from?"
The Qing government, based on the current military and political situation, refused to accept the Russian proposal of assistance in the formation of a new type of armed forces and preferred to ask for the British help.
Cringe and anglophile
The troops trained in European style had a relatively modern weaponry and were staffed with Han-born volunteers and Green Banner soldiers. Russian observers noted the rather high quality of training of Chinese infantry and artilleryme
Neat! Go China!
 
"What a good idea! Who did you copy that from?"

As I said, this is a hearsay but the alleged author, whoever he was, was correct. At least as far as the mini-computers were concerned.
Cringe and anglophile
Actually, this was logical after the demonstrated British qualifications in the Opium and Taiping wars. Did happen in a reality.

Neat! Go China!
Well, I did not quote the negative part of their comments. 😜
 
As I said, this is a hearsay but the alleged author, whoever he was, was correct. At least as far as the mini-computers were concerned.
In this case I shall bow before your computer expertise because I dont know a heck about it
Actually, this was logical after the demonstrated British qualifications in the Opium and Taiping wars. Did happen in a reality.
Yeah it is logical...and cringe!
Well, I did not quote the negative part of their comments. 😜
Rip
 
It also meant that Russia will benefit from having a friendly balancing force on the Far East and that the already friendly relations with Japan have to be further strengthened. But one of the tools for reaching this goal was increased export of the Russian goods which Japan wanted: steel and iron, steam engines, cotton fabrics, coal, etc. Which could be done only by speeding construction of the Trans-Siberian railroad.
That is a very interesting option for either it to go really well with Russia and Japan going very friendly, butterflying the whole RJW. Or it will be that Japan reacts very negatively to yet another competitor like OTL. Given where we are at I think it leans to the former.

Manchukuo to Russia as a puppet, Japan a free hand in the rest? I could certainly see that. Wasn't that the original offer before the RJW?

Edit: they did think about it 2/5 of their leaders were in favor, from wiki
He regarded Japan as too weak to evict the Russians militarily, so he proposed giving Russia control over Manchuria in exchange for Japanese control of northern Korea.
Still, plenty of room to have a more similar outcome to OTL.
 
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But wasn’t Lao-Zi proponent of a limited government? This was, AFAIK, not Pobedonostsev’s ideal. OTOH, “do nothing” ideal for the rulers was highly praised by Saltykov-Schedrin (a liberal) in “Unique one”.
In thursday, when I return to home I try to find this quote.
Also, after reading of Saltykov-Schedrin "Abroad" (Za Rubezhom) I (half-humorously) doubt liberal credibility of Saltykov.
But, to be fair to the Russian reactionaries of that period, in their practices they were innocent children comparing to their political opposites.
No doubt.
“In Moscow I felt myself as being among the old Party comrades” Ribbentrop, 1939.
That's ironic because Ribbenthrop wasn't "old partyman"; he joined NSDAP only in 1932. And, IIRK, this remark provoked ire from Rosenberg as "fraternising with bolsheviks" :)
Not so the judicial part: he was, AFAIK, supporting reform all the way to Zasulich trial and, to be fair, his changed attitude is easy to understand because combination of the mob pressure on the jury and questionable legality of the actions of the presiding judge (Koni) produced a show case scenario of how the system may go wrong (cherry on the top was Koni’s admission that he most probably misbehaved but will not go away because the principle of judges’ immunity is a top priority)
Thank you for explanation.
“Katkov, our Duke Alba, would be straightening their noses…
"Markevich would exclaim:
Hosanna! Axios!"

There was an “extreme” party of the young naval officers who questioned real usefulness of the large armored ships and preached superiority of the smaller fast ships and boats carrying the newly-invented torpedos and mines.
Some categories just don't learn on mistakes of others. No major sea war was ever won by raiders.
 
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That is a very interesting option for either it to go really well with Russia and Japan going very friendly, butterflying the whole RJW. Or it will be that Japan reacts very negatively to yet another competitor like OTL. Given where we are at I think it leans to the former.

Russia and Japan had been quite friendly until after the China-Japan War: after it Witte decided that it will be in the Russian economic interests to get concessions in China, etc. and the rest is history.


Manchukuo to Russia as a puppet, Japan a free hand in the rest? I could certainly see that. Wasn't that the original offer before the RJW?

Something along these lines with Russia breaking all promises it made. My personal impression (I don’t have numbers) is that the whole great plan of the trade with China did not live to the expectations: the Russian exports to China reminded modest except for kerosine and vodka (and even those faced a strong competition) and while the railroad was producing profit in gold it was not enough to cover expenses for the lunacy of building PA and Dalnji. Schema of “Bezobrazov adventure” in Korea also failed. AFAIK, the Russian manufacturers were, in general, not interested in Witte’s idea because it was much easier to make profits inside Russia rather than adjust production to the demands of Chinese market, pay high tariffs (both in the TransSib case for the sea option) and then deal with the Chinese even if Witte eventually created Russian-Chinese bank to at least help with the credit issue. The whole thing started because it looked logical from St-Petersburg and because “everybody is doing this” without paying enough attention to the trifles like interests of the Russian manufacturers, railroad tariffs (who set them for TransSib?), Russian merchant marine (tariffs, general interest, etc.) and the list goes on. As a result, Russia had to build a second branch of TransSib which was not fully operational by 1914. By which time the Russians RRs were already in a bad shape requiring modernization (no money), Archangelsk had a narrow gauge RR, Murmansk had nothing and RR had to be built during WWI.


The practical thing, which you mentioned, would be to do things along the lines the Soviets did in Xinjiang but on a greater scale: get a compliant ruler of the area, back him up with a military force (rather ironically, the Soviets relied on the former Whites) and start getting out the natural resources (the area has all sorts of the rare metals and other valuable things). Even with the expenses on RR (the Soviets, AFAIK, did not bother and used trucks) this would be cheaper than the Grand Schema. ITTL the region is Russian (including Kashgar) and, IIRC, I already “built” the RR (😉) so there is no real reason to go any further.

Screw Manchuria. Some trade with China can go on and perhaps even RR across China can be built (if China is forced to pay for it), the Japanese did not mind if the whole thing happened within reasonable limits, but no loans to China, no “warm water port” madness, no massive military presence, etc.

Witte was a great economist and RR specialist but in the East he went over his head and NII added a cheery on the top of the cake with his own stupidity.



 
Screw Manchuria. Some trade with China can go on and perhaps even RR across China can be built (if China is forced to pay for it), the Japanese did not mind if the whole thing happened within reasonable limits,
You know I feel different about this, I'd say having it as a puppet, mining it and selling both to the Russian Far East as well as Japan is worthwhile. Granted, I'm thinking from the WW1 & 2 and beyond perspective, but still it's a boon to have and to deny others (China & Japan). Easy to do as well, give the Japanese free hand in Korea/rest of China and agree to "special price, just for you".

You'd build up even more industrial capacity, taxable goods and services, have more balance in the Empire (not 100% to the west) and supplying the Japanese keeps them as dependant friends. On the flip side, it fuels either Japanese (like OTL) or Chinese growth (as OTL post-WW2). I know what I'd choose.

but no loans to China, no “warm water port” madness, no massive military presence, etc.
Agreed. A big offensive Navy there is a direct provocation, as is the massive military presence. And if they'd be loaning money to anyone, Japan is much better as an option
 
In thursday, when I return to home I try to find this quote.
Also, after reading of Saltykov-Schedrin "Abroad" (Za Rubezhom) I (half-humorously) doubt liberal credibility of Saltykov.

Try “Помпадуры и помпадурши” and you’ll have even greater doubts. 😉

But IMO there was/is some terminological confusion: at that time everybody who was not a “reactionary” or “revolutionary” was “liberal” and this category came in a wide variety of the shapes. I’d call SS “negativist”: he was very good in criticizing both right and left but I’m not sure if he had any coherent positive platform except for “non-action” for the officials (the last novel in the cycle I mentioned above).



No doubt.

That's ironic because Ribbenthrop wasn't "old partyman"; he joined NSDAP only in 1932. And, IIRK, this remark provoked ire from Rosenberg as "fraternising with bolsheviks" :)
But it was OK with those who mattered and Goering even appropriated the hunting area presented to Ribbentrop by Stalin (as per Speer) so probably he did not mind fraternization. 😜

Thank you for explanation.

"Markevich would exclaim:
Hosanna! Axios!"

Yep.
Some categories just don't learn on mistakes of others. No major sea war was ever won by raiders.
But they were causing huge problems and could be considered a good ROI. In this case I’m talking about the OTL proponents had been basing their argument on two main considerations:
1. Experience of 1877-78 demonstrated that the reasonably modern Britain-built Ottoman battleships proved to be pretty much useless while the small Russian mine boats were quite effective in creating problems for the Ottomans.
2. Nobody in the right senses expected that Russia is going to win a naval war against Britain because Russian strength was on the land and the naval communications were pretty much irrelevant (at that time). The purpose was to make the whole exercise as painful for the opponent as possible and within this framework the raiders (submarines were not, yet, practical) were good ROI.

Of course, this was one of the extremes and extremes are rarely correct. Not that the Russian battleships helped to win RJW or WWI. And, AFAIK, neither did the British. But the German submarines did cause very serious problems in wwi and wwii (did not win them either).
 
You know I feel different about this, I'd say having it as a puppet, mining it and selling both to the Russian Far East as well as Japan is worthwhile. Granted, I'm thinking from the WW1 & 2 and beyond perspective, but still it's a boon to have and to deny others (China & Japan). Easy to do as well, give the Japanese free hand in Korea/rest of China and agree to "special price, just for you".

Of course, the straightforward classic colonial looting was making a practical sense (for the looter) but I’m not sure if the geopolitics of the late XIX would allow to get away with carving a puppet state out of China without getting in trouble with the rest of the “civilized world”: Russia already grabbed a big territory and the Brits were unhappy. Not that they could do something about it alone but they could and did operate through Japan and they had more money to throw around than Russia.

Anyway, in OTL Russia had serious problems in Manchuria and solution would require either a puppet state (Chinese are killing Chinese, nobody cares) or adoption of the (future) Japanese methods involving the wholesale slaughters, mass executions, etc. with the resulting outcry of the “civilized world” against the Russian barbarities (it was OK for the Japanese because, after all, they were “Asians” and for the members of the “cw” because they were “civilizing the natives” but somehow Russia was always ending with the bad PR 😤). In OTL Russian government chose “a little bit pregnant” approach and it was not working.

Anyway, there are plenty of natural resources in the former Dzungaria and even Sakhalin is not fully exploited, yet, not to mention Alaska.

You'd build up even more industrial capacity, taxable goods and services, have more balance in the Empire (not 100% to the west) and supplying the Japanese keeps them as dependant friends. On the flip side, it fuels either Japanese (like OTL) or Chinese growth (as OTL post-WW2). I know what I'd choose.

This could be done by developing what is already within the Russian Far East without pain in the butt of dealing with the Chinese population.
Agreed. A big offensive Navy there is a direct provocation, as is the massive military presence. And if they'd be loaning money to anyone, Japan is much better as an option
Exactly.
 
Personally opposed to Russia carving up it's own chunk of China far better option would be to deal with country itself, or with Japan. In exchange for allowing Japanese expansion Russia could strike a deal for some concessions in Korea and maybe Manchuria down the line, maybe access to Korean port's, or some sort of lover tariffs.

Same with China, opposed to trying to get it's own chunk of the pie it's far better to support territorial integrity of China and get concessions , generally Idea is to let Japan and China have a free hand with each other (within reasonable limits) while profiting from both for minimum investment.

Now if we are talking about potential territorial expansion, well getting outer Mongolia would be nice, maybe just north of Manchuria.
 
Personally opposed to Russia carving up it's own chunk of China far better option would be to deal with country itself, or with Japan. In exchange for allowing Japanese expansion Russia could strike a deal for some concessions in Korea and maybe Manchuria down the line, maybe access to Korean port's, or some sort of lover tariffs.

Russia already carved a very big chunk of China (Manchuria) : compare the border after Nerchinsk with one after Peking Treaty. And ITTL it also has Dzungaria with Kashgar. Further direct expansion into Manchuria is going to cause the same international reaction as the Russian military presence in the region did in OTL: having the US and Britain pissed off by the “Russian expansionism” (which, unlike everybody else’s was bad thing 😂).
The second part of the issue would be usefulness bs. problems. To use the old Polish expression this would be “more stench than pleasure”. It already was pretty much this way in OTL: endless problems with the massive banditism, theft and the local administration. In the case of a direct annexation it would be even worth because the Chinese bureaucrats were unreliable, to put it mildly, and where would you get enough Russians speaking (and writing) Chinese. As for usefulness,
(1) How much sense would it make to start the massive mining operations in this area if you can’t fully exploit even what you have on your side of a border?
(2) As a market for the Russian goods it sucks; situation was somewhat different in the major cities on the South but here you have the predominantly rural area with the population’s purchasing capacity being close to zero and no major Chinese trading houses nearby.
(3) There will be a need to have a permanent presence of a big Russian contingent just to maintain a minimal level of an order.

Agreement with Japan was a distinct possibility. Japan was looking for (a) natural resources of which it was short and (b) the markets for the crappy consumer goods (mostly textiles of a questionable quality) it was producing to maintain neutral or positive balance of its trade. Russia was not a competitor because its main exports to China were kerosine and vodka. The Russian manufacturers were generally uninterested in the Chinese market and in the case of vodka there was a trick, or rather two: 1st, in 1893 Witte established state vodka monopoly hurting the producers and Manchuria was outside Russian Empire so …; 2nd, unlike the tough requirements to the ingredients of the original brands, at least Smirnov in these new production plants was using whatever crap was available locally.

Even in OTL problems started after Russia (or rather Witte) chose China as a partner. ITTL if Russia is a reliable supplier of what Japan needed most (metals, kerosine, coal) then the issues of accessibility of the Korean ports and non-competitive trade on the Japanese-controlled parts of China should not be a major issue. Probably even the RR concession with the proper arrangements to save Japan’s own iron.


Same with China, opposed to trying to get it's own chunk of the pie it's far better to support territorial integrity of China and get concessions , generally Idea is to let Japan and China have a free hand with each other (within reasonable limits) while profiting from both for minimum investment.

May not work because Japan wanted its piece of China and why would Russia care to support anything as long as its own interests are not directly involved? Especially, if it has a sweet deal with Japan? In OTL after the RJW they made a nice agreement which clarified who owns what and set as a goal not to let the third party (US) into the territory,
Now if we are talking about potential territorial expansion, well getting outer Mongolia would be nice, maybe just north of Manchuria.

Does not make sense: it was extremely poor even by the Chinese standards. Why would Russia need it?
 
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