No Global WWII, Pacific war instead.

Plus France, the Netherlands and possibly Portugal.

Ah. I forgot about France and the Netherlands. I suppose that they would also wish to reclaim their colonies from the Japanese. And having not being conquered by the Germans they would be in a position to attempt recapture.

The Portuguese probably wouldn't be a major player in any war with Japan. I believe that their main colonial possessions at this time were Angola, Mozambique and Guinea (all in Africa). Their only possessions in Asia / Pacific was Macau, a small territory leased from China (in a similar manner to Hong Kong was leased to the British), and a few small holdings in India. Do they have enough at stake or have enough manpower to be a major player in a war against Japan?
 
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Do either the Soviets or Chinese have the capacity to transport that manpower to Japan?[/QUOTE]

I have no idea. The Soviet Union certainly should be able to come up with considerable number of troop ships. It should have the industrial capacity to make a decent number if required. The Chinese might be able to capture any Japanese ships left docked in Chinese ports. Will this provide enough troop carry capacity? I don't know.

The prospect of limited troop ferrying capacity does perhaps thwart the idea of an invasion of mainland Japan. Or it might make the two Japanese states outcome more likely.

Perhaps the invasion could have been performed in waves, with Sino-Soviet forces establishing a beachhead, whilst the troop ships journey back to China to collect additional troops. Such a beachhead would be vulnerable to Japanese counter-attack however.
 

CalBear

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As noted the chances of Japan making any such attempt without France, the UK and Dutch being fully occuppied by a shooting war (and in a couple of cases being simply occuppied) would be close to zero.

The U.S. would, possibly, be more ready to go after Japan if there was no Europe to worry about (the dislike of Japan's actions in China were fairly prevalent across the political spectrum). It would still probably take a direct attack to goad the U.S. to action.
 
Let us not forget the German navy. If we butterfly away Nazi Germany with an economically vigorous Weimar Republic, Germany will have colonial interests somewhere. Middle East? Africa? Some place in the Pacific?
 
Let us not forget the German navy. If we butterfly away Nazi Germany with an economically vigorous Weimar Republic, Germany will have colonial interests somewhere. Middle East? Africa? Some place in the Pacific?

I doubt it the Weimar Republic was quite a passive state.
 
As noted the chances of Japan making any such attempt without France, the UK and Dutch being fully occuppied by a shooting war (and in a couple of cases being simply occuppied) would be close to zero.

I'm not so sure. Collectively, is attacking the Western Europeans less suicidal than attacking America?

Say the League tells Japan to get out of Southern China, or face an embargo. What do you think Japan would do?
 

Bearcat

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I don't think they would run wild for a week, let alone a few months. The Brits would have a MUCH more powerful fleet at Singapore, the French would have a sizable force, and the Dutch a not inconsiderable one as well. I think if the Japanese attempted an attack on any of the European colonies, we would quickly see the Japanese fleet at the bottom of the South China Sea.

Remember the fleet air arm is still crap. Lots of slow obsolete planes that don't stand a chance against the zero, and can't stop the Val or Kate.

In a carrier battle, the Brits get hammered. Badly. And likely the carriers would have been operating there at some point.

The US is just as unprepared in 12/41 as in OTL. Not enough combat experience, no good air superiority fighters, still too wedded to the Battleship model of great naval battles.

Things will be different in detail but not theme in '41 and early '42.

But when the new naval construction and newly designed planes reach the Pacific? Damn...

The naval war will not last into '45. By 12/1/44 Japan is beaten and broken, completely blockaded. The Russians have taken Manchuria. The Grand Alliance is making the decision whether to invade the home Islands or starve them out.
 
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More interesting...

Here's one possible way to make it less of an "everyone jumps on Japan" situation.

As Germany is geting ready to invade Poland, the Polish government finds out, and makes a (perhaps foolish) desicision to lanuch a preemptive strike. Polish cavalry surges across the border, with infantry and artillery behind them, as the Polish airforce strafes Luftwaffe airfields. Hitler is elated, as the Polish attack is crushed, and now, there's a clear attack on Germany to justify his actions. By the time France and Britian actually decide to do anything, the USSR has jumped in as well, supporting their German ally. Poland is crushed, yet war doesn't break out.

But, Britain and France are so close to war with Germany that, while there's no shooting, deploying additional forces elsewhere is out of the question.

Japan makes overtures to Germany, asking them not to make war, but to keep up the posture of readiness, to keep Allied forces looking across the border. In return, Japan will ship rubber to the USSR and Germany via Siberia.

Now, it could get interesting over in the Pacific.
 
Let's just say for the sake of argument, that there is no Nazi Germany, that the 30s and 40s in Europe are peaceful, but the problems between the United States and Japan still occur. What would be the final out come of a WWII limited to the Pacific? What would the Geopolitical consequences be?


I tend to think such a Japan would be much more cautious and focus a lot more on China. I really don't see her getting herself involved in a war with the Western powers alone. The naval strength of the UK, France, and the US alone seems to make any attempt at a 'Pacific' Pacific war crazed. If she could find a way to get into a conflict with just a single power (especially the Dutch) then perhaps. Possibly even striking the Soviets if they were vulnerable ... and over time maybe even a large attempt at Siberia if holds and gains in China are consolidated. The oil shortage is important though ... if the US shuts off the pumps ... what does she do? I imagine diplomatic overtures in trade areas while secretly planning for Asian ventures against China or the USSR.

This scenario makes me think of the implications for a strong Russo-Germanic alliance being created. First economic and trade in nature, but eventually becoming more diplomatic and strategic and eventually a partnership in various affairs. That would be a powerful lobby in world affairs.
 
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