no Germany in WW1

i figure this is very unlikly but what if afterAustria declares war on Serbia Germany refuses to back Austria & stays out of the war? would this end up being a war between Austria Serbia & Russia? Or would it continue escalating even larger? So with no Germany in WW1 how does the world change for say the next 40 years?
 
There wouldn't have been a war. Without the Kaiser's Blank Cheque A-H wouldn't have gone to war with Serbia for fear of Russian intervention.

As to what happens next, continued tensions between the Great Powers for 18 months until the time when the German General Staff calculated that the combined strength of France and Russia would make the Schiefflin strategy obsolete, after that it's anyone's guess!
 
i figure this is very unlikly but what if afterAustria declares war on Serbia Germany refuses to back Austria & stays out of the war? would this end up being a war between Austria Serbia & Russia?
Yep, it would. Austria would lose. Might cease to exist altogether. Germany, in the medium term, is royally screwed and has zero friends in Europe.
There wouldn't have been a war. Without the Kaiser's Blank Cheque A-H wouldn't have gone to war with Serbia for fear of Russian intervention.
Incorrect; the Austrian "war council" that met before even dispatching Hoyos to get the skinny on Germany's position had decided to go to war regardless of Germany's stance. This decision was contingent on Germany's complete failure to support Austria in 1912 and 1913 when Serbia was massively enlarging its territory. Berchtold and the others just went "fuck it, this alliance is useless" and decided to do what they thought they had to do, with or without German approval.
 
Incorrect; the Austrian "war council" that met before even dispatching Hoyos to get the skinny on Germany's position had decided to go to war regardless of Germany's stance. This decision was contingent on Germany's complete failure to support Austria in 1912 and 1913 when Serbia was massively enlarging its territory. Berchtold and the others just went "fuck it, this alliance is useless" and decided to do what they thought they had to do, with or without German approval.

I didn't know that, they must have been stupid beyond belief to have done that, as you say they would have been steamrollered by Russia.
 
well it would still have Italy & the Ottomans. Italy was its ally before deciding to switch sides in WW1 & i doubt the OE will align with Austria in a losing war.

IIRC the Ottomans were not aligned with either the CP or Entente on the eve of WWI. With fewer CPs it may be less likely to go their way if war breaks out.
 
maybe as a result an early anschluss of austria?
It depends, would Austro-Hungary collapse in this war, or would it be over quickly enough for it to remain together. It also depends on what other countries would join. Would Italy and Romania decide to join, hoping to get some desired parts of A-H, or would they remain outside the war, as it isn't their war to fight. If it would just be Russia/Serbia vs Austria-Hungary I think they would stay out of it. My guess it would be a relatively short war (compared to WWI at least), in which loses and Rin the peace afterwards ussia annexes Galicia and Serbia Bosnia and possibly the Vojvodina. The rest of A-H will stay together and thus not join Germany.
 
It depends, would Austro-Hungary collapse in this war, or would it be over quickly enough for it to remain together. It also depends on what other countries would join. Would Italy and Romania decide to join, hoping to get some desired parts of A-H, or would they remain outside the war, as it isn't their war to fight. If it would just be Russia/Serbia vs Austria-Hungary I think they would stay out of it. My guess it would be a relatively short war (compared to WWI at least), in which loses and Rin the peace afterwards ussia annexes Galicia and Serbia Bosnia and possibly the Vojvodina. The rest of A-H will stay together and thus not join Germany.
another question with a fairly quick victory like this coul Russia keep from falling to communisium & stay an empire
 
another question with a fairly quick victory like this coul Russia keep from falling to communisium & stay an empire
I would say that a quick succesful war would keep Russia from becoming communist.

Actualy it would mean that the status quo of late 19th century early 20th century remains in place. There would still be an Austro-Hungary (although slightly smaller), there would still be a tsarist Russia and still be a German Empire and of course an Ottoman Empire. No end to the European Empires alone is an interesting point. How long would they be able to continue and how? Would it just mean another alternate world war a couple of years later in which they fall? Or would they collapse under their own internal problems (although that is not as likely for Germany I think)? Or would they manage to succeed in the twentieth century?
 
Hi,

with germany doing this in 1916 france and russia will attack germany and try to destroy it.

germany has no ally and has big troubles... maybe germany can beat france, but russia will be a problem.

great britain will find a way to join th efight, so germay is doomed, cause this time they fight alone.

so no - for germany this means that ww1 will happen 1916... maybe - big if - germany develop gas grenades as a secret weapon, so they can gas the french and russian they could beat em so hard, that they can break one of the both... but only in this scenario...

the chances are
10% germany beat both, uk stay neutral (cause of a "wonderweapon like gas")
1% germany beat both, uk support germany
69% russia and france beat germans
10% germany beat france but has to make peace with russia
10% germany hold/beat russia, russia break cause of revolution, draw with france (similar to brestlitovsk in the east)

generally:
uk joins germany 1%
uk stay neutral 10%
uk joins france and russia 89%
 
Hi,

with germany doing this in 1916 france and russia will attack germany and try to destroy it.

germany has no ally and has big troubles... maybe germany can beat france, but russia will be a problem.

great britain will find a way to join th efight, so germay is doomed, cause this time they fight alone.

so no - for germany this means that ww1 will happen 1916... maybe - big if - germany develop gas grenades as a secret weapon, so they can gas the french and russian they could beat em so hard, that they can break one of the both... but only in this scenario...

the chances are
10% germany beat both, uk stay neutral (cause of a "wonderweapon like gas")
1% germany beat both, uk support germany
69% russia and france beat germans
10% germany beat france but has to make peace with russia
10% germany hold/beat russia, russia break cause of revolution, draw with france (similar to brestlitovsk in the east)

generally:
uk joins germany 1%
uk stay neutral 10%
uk joins france and russia 89%
Why would the UK support France and Russia. With an isolated Germany, those two countries are no Britains' biggest threats.
I'd see Britain supporting Germany through loans and supplies if it survives a month or two.
 
i figure this is very unlikly but what if afterAustria declares war on Serbia Germany refuses to back Austria & stays out of the war? would this end up being a war between Austria Serbia & Russia? Or would it continue escalating even larger? So with no Germany in WW1 how does the world change for say the next 40 years?

It wouldn't have to back them active, if German can keep Russia from entering. Then this conflict might end with an international conference.
 
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without germany, without german support, there would be no war at that time

(count Tisza as for Hungary, opposed a war against serbia and thus a possible war against russia, at least until the german support - and that opposition meant a practical veto)

and later? who knows...
 
U.K. barely joined the war. They only joined because Germany attacked Belgium. Besides that, the U.K. has already decided on not getting into it.
 
Why would the UK support France and Russia. With an isolated Germany, those two countries are no Britains' biggest threats.
I'd see Britain supporting Germany through loans and supplies if it survives a month or two.

Germany is a problem whether isolated or not. But it becomes a war between problems, that's true.
 
Why would the UK support France and Russia. With an isolated Germany, those two countries are no Britains' biggest threats.
I'd see Britain supporting Germany through loans and supplies if it survives a month or two.


Nether - one has to understand that uk was 100% sided with france in 1914... belgium was just the casus belli - but without it uk still had joined with the rest of entente.

so any scenario that look like germany "winning" means uk in the war.
also, some "we need to stop agressions in the german bay, so no ships with goods for germany are allowed (forgetting the french atlantic harbors) will do it... or say the brits cause a casus belli with some sunken french ship by german subs....

uk need to take down german economy, so even without belgium, even with france start the attack uk will support france...
 
U.K. barely joined the war. They only joined because Germany attacked Belgium. Besides that, the U.K. has already decided on not getting into it.


well, not in otl... in this uk had secret treaties with france, they had signed that they DEFEND the french shipping... if france is at war with germany, how will they handle this?
 
Germany is a problem whether isolated or not. But it becomes a war between problems, that's true.

Well IMHO all Great Powers like Austria-Hungary, France, Germany, Britain, Russia etc. share a part of the blame; and so IMHO Germany is not the only problem.
 
Well IMHO all Great Powers like Austria-Hungary, France, Germany, Britain, Russia etc. share a part of the blame; and so IMHO Germany is not the only problem.

Blame for WWI, sure. I meant a problem in the sense Britain is dealing with an ambitious, even threatening power.
 
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