No German Revolution/Armistice in 1918: How long for the Entente to fight their way into Germany?

A major element of Nazi propaganda was the so-called stab in the back myth - that Germany had not been truly defeated on the battlefield and had lost the war due to traitors in Berlin overthrowing the Imperial government. What if there had been no revolution, and the Entente had had to occupy a significant part of Germany before it threw in the towel? How long would it have taken them? IIRC in 1918 Belgium had been liberated but there were still parts of France, plus Alsace-Lorraine, under German control.

Also, what effects might this have on the post-war world, focusing on the effects on the UK/France and the post-war settlement?
 
Avoiding the collapse of German morale and fighting ability in Oct-Nov 1918 is - Tricky. The ability to draw significant foodstuffs and other resources from the Ukraine is a must and could be doable. Earlier Treaty of Brest-Litovsk or simply better German organisation in there 'New Territories. But the collapse of all its Allies is harder to butterfly away. Maybe if Austria-Hungary doesn't sure for peace until a few weeks later, once winter has set in and it's hard to move troops through it quickly? This might be a by-product of the more stuff from the East POD.

So Germany feels it can hold out for better terms than it might get from an Armistice in November 1918 and so fight on longer? But remember Germans were shocked by the "harshness" of Versailles - hypocrisy as most of its terms were far milder than Brest-Litovsk. Could it ever believe it would get better than a peace supposedly to be based on 'The Fourteen Points'? But, assuming the German leadership has control of itself, civil society and the military, and is so deluded ---

My thought would be the defences of the Western Front would creak throughout the winter. Some loss of ground but no major breakthrough. Maybe the Germans would be pushed back to the 1914 frontiers of Belgium and Luxembourg, with parts of Lorraine also taken by France. By April the Allies would be poised to launch large-scale offensives with deeper penetrations by tanks than hitherto and also massed enough on the border with the former A-H to start a 'Southern Front'. The German lines would be ruptured within days. While you might not have Blitzkrieg style cauldrons parts of the army would disintegrate. After that - the Rhine by May and across it a month later - if the Germans don't give up.
 
Wasn't Foch a week away from starting an advance into German territory on the southern end of the line when the Armistice was called?
 
What if there had been no revolution, and the Entente had had to occupy a significant part of Germany before it threw in the towel?

Not going to happen; you'd see the Entente finish liberating Belgium, occupied France and Alsace-Lorraine at best before both sides go to the table exhausted.
 
What if there had been no revolution, and the Entente had had to occupy a significant part of Germany before it threw in the towel? How long would it have taken them? IIRC in 1918 Belgium had been liberated but there were still parts of France, plus Alsace-Lorraine, under German control.

Maybe spring or summer 1919.
 
Even with millions of American troops in Europe?

Yes, because the Anglo-French were at their breaking point and to end German resistance would require casualties beyond what I think the American public would be willing to take. To get an idea of what I mean, here is an excerpt from Paddy Griffiths's The Great War on the Western Front: A Short History (Pg. 128):

However, what Pershing overlooked was that ever since 1871 Metz had been fortified to at least the same standard that the French had applied to Verdun during the same period. To attack Metz in 1919 would have been equivalent to selecting the very strongest point in the enemy line on which to beat one's head.

By the time Verdun had occurred, the French had the benefit of nearly two years of trench warfare and still managed to take 300-500k casualties; the American experience to this point only consisted of a few months of action primarily in the relatively fluid environment of the Hundred Days. This is a recipe for disaster once they butt up against such stout defenses, one which will have major political consequences.

As far as the Anglo-French go, Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed The World, by Margaret MacMillan:

Pg 158:
Among the Allied leaders only General Pershing, the top American military commander, thought the Allies should press on, beyond the Rhine if necessary. The French did not want anymore of their men to die. Their chief general, Marshal Foch, who was also the supreme Allied commander, warned that they ran the risk of stiff resistance and heavy losses. The British wanted to make peace before the Americans became too strong. And Smuts spoke for many in Europe when he warned gloomily that "the grim spectre of Bolshevist anarchy was stalking the front."

Expanding on that Smuts quote, is important to note that there had been large mutinies among the Australians back in September and that there was reoccurring unrest and mutiny in the Royal Navy throughout 1919.

With regards to German morale, John Keegan in his book The First World War (Pg 421) states that:
The army at the front, after its brief morale collapse in late September, when troops returning from the trenches had taunted those going up with cries of "strike breakers", had indeed recovered something of its old spirit and was contesting the advance of the Allies towards the German frontier. In Flanders, where water obstacles were plentiful, the French were held up, to Foch's irritation, for some time.
He later states that (Pg 423):
by the first week of November, therefore, the German Empire stood alone as a combatant among the war's Central Powers. Under pressure from the French, British, Americans and Belgians, the army's resistance stiffened as it feel back across the battlefields of 1914 towards Belgium and the German frontier. There was hard fighting at the rivers and canals, casualties rose-among the penultimate fatalities was the British poet, Wilfred Owen, killed at the crossing of the River Sambre on 4 November-and the war, to the Allied soldiers battling at the front, seemed to threaten to prolong.

Enduring the Great War: Combat, Morale and Collapse in the German and British Armies, 1914–1918 by Alexander Watson notes on pg. 210 that Crown Prince Rupprecht (Commander of the 7th Army) and Generaloberst Karl von Einem (Commander of the 3rd Army and former Prussian War Minister) both do not mention desertion as becoming an issue until October. He further states that there is no evidence for mass numbers of deserters until the last three or four weeks of the war, at which time the OHL had to reinforce the military police with five squadrons of cavalry. Even still, Watson decisively refutes the notion that there was a million deserters by the time of the Armistice and further notes that little desertion was occurring by the combat units at the front who were resisting quite strongly as Keegan wrote. Going into 1919, the Germans had managed to crush their own Bolshevists by June. In February, the Freikorps had managed to likewise defeat the Poles and reclaim Poznan until Entente pressure forced them to pull out once more. Likewise, a force of about 50,000 under General von der Goltz had managed to occupy the Baltic states and eject the Red Army; Entente pressure on Berlin forced them to return large numbers of von der Goltz's troops, while British supplies and naval gunfire support allowed the Balts to kick the reduced force out soon after. I think all of this, quite clearly, shows the Germans were more than able to fight it out morale wise.
 
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There were one million American forces in France in fall, 1919 and the plan was two million by spring 1919 when an offensive that was planned to cross in to Germany was planned. By fall 1918 US war industries were cranking out plenty enough materiel to supply these troops, and various new weapons like the BAR were just coming in to service. While food from the Ukraine might have been available to help alleviate the situation in Germany, the reality was that the Germans simply did not have the manpower to deal with the American numbers coming to Europe - like the British and French the Germans were scraping the bottom of the barrel. Morale might have improved as the German Army was now defending German territory, but the numbers in personnel and materiel were simply overwhelming.

Even if the Germans hang tough in to 1919, the Ottomans and the Austro-Hungarians were played out, and they threw in the sponge before Germany did. I can't see any way either of those two Empires could have held out any longer than they did, their internal problems were overwhelming. Imagine the Entente now sending troops through an occupied Austria to open up a front against Bavaria. Imagine the Czechs, now breaking free of A-H and throwing in with the Entente. With all the skill and will in the world, Germany simply does not have enough military to defend on all these fronts.

Freikorps victories against hastily organized Polish or Baltic forces are not the same as fighting against well organized and supplied Entente forces. The 50,000 mentioned against the Balts are little more than a speed bump against Entente forces.
 
What would be the effects on British finances of a war continuing into 1919? My impression is that the UK was essentially broke by 1918.
 
I can say with some certainty that it would have had little to no effect on the propagation of a stab in the back myth. The utility of said myth wasn't its resemblance to reality, but the shifting of blame from the military leadership to the SPD. So long as those two remained at odds, it would still be employed.
 
I can say with some certainty that it would have had little to no effect on the propagation of a stab in the back myth. The utility of said myth wasn't its resemblance to reality, but the shifting of blame from the military leadership to the SPD. So long as those two remained at odds, it would still be employed.

I think the biggest irony of the whole ordeal is the fact that the decision to make peace came about as a result of Ludendorff, a man who would prove crucial in establishing the NSDAP, having a mental collapse in late September and demanding peace, which was ultimately granted. By the time he calmed down and began advocating resistance unto the last, the home front had collapsed with all that entails to the ability to prosecute industrial warfare.

As an aside, this is the easiest PoD for this; Ludendorff doesn't have his breakdown or recovers quickly that same day.
 
The problem with 'holding on' is that the 100 days had already overrun the main 'Germany to Western front' railheads in Belgium further impacting the German armies ability to defend another push in the north or indeed retreat in the face of it.

The other major railhead in the centre was close to being overrun at Sedan and the Southern most at Strasbourg - once they had gone the German Army has lost the ability to move forces north to south and vice versa (which they had already lost in Belgium)

This was one of the major logistical and strategic advantages that the German army enjoyed between 1914-18 on the Western Front and had the war gone on till the next year that advantage would be in the hands of the Entente forces.

The Allies had already proven they could do the 'big sneaky attack' thing and having penetrated the main line of resistance in the north and on the verge of doing likewise in the south IMO things would only get worse for the German Army from November 12th 1918+
 
Depending if the army actually remained in the field or completly disintegrated,the germans could probably hold out for several months before the Wallies take Berlin,though there is no uncertainity about the fact that they would in fact be able to do so.

Of course,dragging the war out for an additional year,additional destruction in the german economic regions and an even bigger power vacuum in middle europe (with germany shattered and the wallies bled out) will make the continent even more horrible than the real interwar period was.
 

Archibald

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I think the biggest irony of the whole ordeal is the fact that the decision to make peace came about as a result of Ludendorff, a man who would prove crucial in establishing the NSDAP, having a mental collapse in late September and demanding peace, which was ultimately granted. By the time he calmed down and began advocating resistance unto the last, the home front had collapsed with all that entails to the ability to prosecute industrial warfare.

As an aside, this is the easiest PoD for this; Ludendorff doesn't have his breakdown or recovers quickly that same day.

(must.resist. making.lame. wonder woman. jokes.)
 
Another point in the capability (or rather lack of) of the German army to continue to resist was the loss of so many peices of Artillery (I beleive that in the Sept - Oct battles the German army lost over 6000 peices alone?).

This at a time when the superiority in allied artillery and the ability to provide a staggering number of shells was already many times beyond what the German army could hope to match.

This was one of the aspects that drove the Germans to ask for an armistice in the first place.

Had the war gone on then this disparity in artillery would only get worse for the Germans.
 
Not all the events at the end of the war were necessarily connected, and so long as democrats don't get in charge of Germany I feel that we can still keep the revolts and muting ties around. Though I think one of the naval mutinies was because an armistice was being arranged soon and the admirals were trying to send ships out to fight the much larger British navy despite how it would not win the Germans the war, only costing them lives and possibly the armistice.

Also, there was going to be one, one and a half, or two million American soldiers in Europe within a year of the OTL peace, meaning that the Entente had numbers on their side, with the added benefit of the US resupplying the French and British. The Germans were not getting as much food out of Easten Europe as they were hoping for, and I imagine there might be a bread riot or two at one point. Also issues if the Germans start conscripting people from mines, farms, and factories.
 
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