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Hello All. Though I have been on this site many times in the last couple of years, I have only recently joined and this will be my first post. My apologies to all if this has been done a great many times before. Hopefully something original may be said.
As the title eludes to, let’s say Hitler ate some bad cabbage the previous night (or whatever reason you want to credit him with) and didn’t have the stomach to do a DOW against the U.S on Dec. 11th, 1941. He also doesn’t try the next day, the next week or for many months to come.
I think, (given the extreme division of opinion in American society over this issue) it would be safe to say that Roosevelt will not have the political clout to force through a DOW from the American side, so for now a technical state of peace will exist between the US and Germany.
This is not to say that thing are now hunky dory between the two powers. Quite the opposite in fact. Roosevelt was acutely aware of the threat posed by Nazism to the free world and he was not shy about expressing his opinions. In addition:
There will be substantial US naval forces in the North Atlantic conducting patrols and escorting convoys to the mid-Atlantic transfer point (where British Commonwealth forces take over).
US land and air forces occupy a string of outposts from Greenland to South America keeping a watchout for German incursions into the Western Hemisphere defense zone.
Lend Lease aid to Britain and Russia will still be flowing into Europe (maybe at a decreased rate with the pressures of a Pacific War but definitely continuing)
US volunteers (i.e. RAF eagle squadrons) will be actively fighting German forces.
There is thus plenty of opportunity for “incidents” escalating into a full scale clash and a DOW. But let’s say whatever incidents do occur are not enough to give either side a cause belle to for a DOW. So for now the full attention and military resources of the United States can be concentrated on the Pacific theatre. How does the US deploy those resources to achieve victory over Japan?
Before beginning to answer this though a few words on the initial course of the Pacific War.
I am going to assume that the same damage is done to the US Pacific Fleet and British Force Z is taken out. Also Japanese forces will still follow the same attack strategy and patterns they used IOTL (i.e. Conquest of US possessions of the Philippines, Guam and Wake. Expulsion of British forces from Hong Kong, Malaya and Singapore, followed by a massive sweep to secure the Dutch East Indies. Ending with thrusts on the eastern and western flanks to secure Northeastern New Guinea/Solomons and Burma respectively)
Without a viable offensive naval force in the Pacific I very much doubt the US or its allies can stop these Japanese conquests so, for example sailing a US army from San Francisco to rescue MacArthur at Bataan is not realistic. It should also be noted that it will take several months to organise, train, equip and transport those forces that the US is trying to constitute so I don’t think they will be able to deploy much more than they actually did IOTL during these first few months.
By March or April 1942 however (and without the distraction of also preparing for action in Europe), the build-up of US forces in theatre should be large enough for US planners to seriously begin considering what their next moves should be. And with a steadily expanding force, they will have far more offensive options at this juncture than the limited single thrust at Guadalcanal that OTL provided. What then will they be?
In addition to a Solomons campaign does the US take a much more active posture in New Guinea, possibly being the primary fighting force there at this time in place of the Australians
Does the US begin their Central Pacific island hopping campaign a year and a half earlier that they did IOTL.
Japanese forces are still pretty thin on the ground in the Dutch East Indies so there are plenty of opportunities to take back some of the more easterly islands of the group near Northern Australia. And remember there is an active guerilla movement by a remnant of the Australian force that tried to defend Timor.
Does the US place a large land force to the India-Burma border to defend that frontier and begin rolling back Japanese advances.
Will the US consider deploying more forces to the China theatre to encourage and assist Chiang Kai-shek into taking a more offensive posture and thereby tie down the very large forces the Japanese have in place there.
And let’s not forget the Aleutians. Geographically the closest territory the US has to the Japanese home islands and therefore a place to consider for an air build-up to support a strategic bomber campaign.
In addition to these military considerations, what will the impact of an expansive strategy be for the allies of the US. I have read that not all Australians were happy with the Americans they did get (overpaid, oversexed, over here attitude) so with so many more could that lead to significant tension between these two Allies.
If the US does decide to move to the Burma border, what will be the British reaction to having all those “symbol of freedom and democracy” soldiers in the very heart of their empire and in full view of their subjects. And given the increasing political instability between the Raj and Indian nationalists, can the US ever hope to remain neutral (assuming they do choose to do that and not prod the British to consider concessions). The Quit India campaign will be coming, so how does the US respond and how do both sides react to the US response (how about having Patton on riot control duty in Calcutta).
More US forces in China will also include more accountants so that is going to make it much more difficult for Chiang Kai-shek and his cronies from siphoning off those millions from US aid that is earmarked to improve Chinese fighting forces and infrastructure. What if one of those accountants objects and goes public with it? Very embarrassing for all sides.
Also to consider IOTL the Pacific theatre was clearly the primary responsibility of the US Navy, but with no war in Europe to fight will the Army acquiesce to being the junior service in this fight? And who will command there? MacArthur has a big ego so how does he react to the presence of Eisenhower, Bradley, Patton, Clarke and others.
And finally, what do the Japanese do? Any thought?