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Your map of Africa is really quite nice. But my map of Africa lies in Europe. Here is Russia, and here... is France, and we're in the middle — that's my map of Africa.
Otto von Bismarck
Bismarck wanted no overseas colonialism because in his opinion Germany should focus on countering expected French revanchism and possible Russian expansionism.

So the PoD is that Bismarck in 1884 does not authorize the establishment of protectorates in Togoland, Cameroon, SW Africa, E Africa and North New Guinea. Most of these coastal areas will become British in short time, probably.
Perhaps Bismarcks intervenes in London and asks that existing tradings posts
of German companies will be respected, perhaps not even that.

Anyway, the next year, after the Berlin Conference, the scramble for Africa is mostly over. Germany is confined to its European possessions. The companies of Woermann, Lüderitz and Peters are seething, the National Liberal Party is unhappy - so Bismarck will have to throw them some other bone.

What are the long term consequences?
Obviously there will be different naval policy. Germany might still acquire Kiauchow and try to have bigger influence in China. Other roads to expansion will mostly lead to a confrontation with the US, namely over Samoa and the Spanish East Indies. But these quarrels will be soon over, nothing you start building a HSF for.
And what about Heligoland? With no overseas territory to trade in, will Germany ever acquire the island? If not, than an anti-British naval strategy makes even less sense.

Any ideas?
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