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What if the Germans don't have colonies? AFAIK the Germans only had about 10,000 people in their Kolonialverein, the lobbying group for Germany to gain colonies, before they actually acquired any. Bismarck was opposed to any efforts to gain colonies, which actually gave the other European powers the room to grab the best ones in Africa and Asia.
So what if Germany doesn't get involved? For the sake of argument let's say they still build a fleet and don't use colonialism as justification. I'm not sure how much was spent on the colonies, but it had to be in the millions of Marks, especially after the military expeditions to fight the revolts against European rule. What is the money used for instead?
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