No Gengis Khan and No black plague

Indeed. Medieval Lithuanian and Russian history had been related to such a degree that nowadays at least some of the Belorussian historians and writers keep insisting that actually Belorussia is true Lithuania. Anyway, one can easily find Lithuanian "footprint" all over the Russian history from Lithuanian "voyevoda" Bobrok Volynets playing a decisive role in Muscovite victory over Emir Mamai and all the way to the Lithuanian roots of many of the most aristocratic Russian families.
Not even mentioning, that without Mongols Duke Henry II of Silesia would not be killed in Battle of Legnica, so Poland would likely be united by different Piast line, likely Silesian one (OTL fact that Łokietek, ruler of tiny Cuiavian duchy became King of reunited Poland also was something close to miracle) and that Piast line is not guaranteed to be extinct by the end of 14th century like IOTL, Poland would hardly be recognizable ITTL (unless someone belives that everything in Polish history up to partitions was pre-determined since times of Mieszko I, like 19th century 'Cracow School' of history used to do ;) ).
 
Not even mentioning, that without Mongols Duke Henry II of Silesia would not be killed in Battle of Legnica, so Poland would likely be united by different Piast line, likely Silesian one (OTL fact that Łokietek, ruler of tiny Cuiavian duchy became King of reunited Poland also was something close to miracle) and that Piast line is not guaranteed to be extinct by the end of 14th century like IOTL, Poland would hardly be recognizable ITTL (unless someone belives that everything in Polish history up to partitions was pre-determined since times of Mieszko I, like 19th century 'Cracow School' of history used to do ;) ).

The good thing about the deterministic schools of a history is that they always know an outcome and just have to fit the facts into the final framework which is not such a difficult thing either as long as you feel free with the terms like "historically inevitable": it was "historically inevitable" for Poland and Russia to became the united states so to Hell with the probabilities. x'D

But, if anything, the whole Polish-Lithuanian union even in its initial form does not look like a high probability thing and creation of the PLC probably even less so: would it happen without the events leading to the Livonian War, "specifics" of personality of Ivan IV, etc.? Would the union survive on its early stages if, say, Vitold had surviving male children and won at Worskla? Would it survive if at the time of Vitold's death his OTL grandson, the Great Prince of Moscow, was a grownup man and a little bit more talented than in OTL (say, had abilities and ambitions of Vitold's great-grandson, Ivan the Great)? There were still plenty of Orthodox followers in the Grand Duchy at that time. Could Vitold's successor, Švitrigaila (more talented version of OTL) continue his work and make Lithuania independent? Could Lithuania at that stage broke into the Catholic and Orthodox states gravitating to Poland and Moscow, correspondingly? The list of possibilities is if not endless than at least a long one.

Well, what was a probability for an orphaned son of an obscure Mongolian chieftain to become a founder of the Mongolian Empire? What was a probability for one of the least significant princedoms of the Central Russia to became a center of a great empire?
What was a probability for an obscure artillery lieutenant to became a head of the most powerful European state? What was a probability for a son of the provincial judicial clerk from Bearn to became a founder of the Swedish royal dynasty?
 
The good thing about the deterministic schools of a history is that they always know an outcome and just have to fit the facts into the final framework which is not such a difficult thing either as long as you feel free with the terms like "historically inevitable": it was "historically inevitable" for Poland and Russia to became the united states so to Hell with the probabilities. x'D

But, if anything, the whole Polish-Lithuanian union even in its initial form does not look like a high probability thing and creation of the PLC probably even less so: would it happen without the events leading to the Livonian War, "specifics" of personality of Ivan IV, etc.? Would the union survive on its early stages if, say, Vitold had surviving male children and won at Worskla? Would it survive if at the time of Vitold's death his OTL grandson, the Great Prince of Moscow, was a grownup man and a little bit more talented than in OTL (say, had abilities and ambitions of Vitold's great-grandson, Ivan the Great)? There were still plenty of Orthodox followers in the Grand Duchy at that time. Could Vitold's successor, Švitrigaila (more talented version of OTL) continue his work and make Lithuania independent? Could Lithuania at that stage broke into the Catholic and Orthodox states gravitating to Poland and Moscow, correspondingly? The list of possibilities is if not endless than at least a long one.

Well, what was a probability for an orphaned son of an obscure Mongolian chieftain to become a founder of the Mongolian Empire? What was a probability for one of the least significant princedoms of the Central Russia to became a center of a great empire?
What was a probability for an obscure artillery lieutenant to became a head of the most powerful European state? What was a probability for a son of the provincial judicial clerk from Bearn to became a founder of the Swedish royal dynasty?
OTL history is so unbelivable, that if not the fact that it really happened no one would belive that it is possible. Common mistake in any ATL scenario is that people behave reasonable, while IOTL one madness follow another, utter fool change course of history more than any genius even could. Polish-Lithuanian personal union would not happen if Poland have no available heiress at right time, whom Jogaila could marry, was it determined, that Casimir the Great would have no legal son, when he had so many bastard sons?. Union of Lublin would not happen if Jagiellon dynasty continues-Jagiellons would never ceede rights to their hereditary Grand Duchy to the Crown, Sigismund Ausustus did it, because he had no heir and was afraid that both countries would go separate ways after his death. Union of Lublin was most radical possible outcome. And end of Jagiellon dynasty in 1572 was hardly something set in stone-just one accident on hunting party in September 1527 (when Bona fell from her horse, which was scarred by bear, and gave premature birth to the boy, who only lived long enough to be baptized) need to be avoided.
 
OTL history is so unbelivable, that if not the fact that it really happened no one would belive that it is possible. Common mistake in any ATL scenario is that people behave reasonable, while IOTL one madness follow another, utter fool change course of history more than any genius even could. Polish-Lithuanian personal union would not happen if Poland have no available heiress at right time, whom Jogaila could marry, was it determined, that Casimir the Great would have no legal son, when he had so many bastard sons?. Union of Lublin would not happen if Jagiellon dynasty continues-Jagiellons would never ceede rights to their hereditary Grand Duchy to the Crown, Sigismund Ausustus did it, because he had no heir and was afraid that both countries would go separate ways after his death. Union of Lublin was most radical possible outcome. And end of Jagiellon dynasty in 1572 was hardly something set in stone-just one accident on hunting party in September 1527 (when Bona fell from her horse, which was scarred by bear, and gave premature birth to the boy, who only lived long enough to be baptized) need to be avoided.

I mean the most unbelieveble part was the Fall of the Western Roman Empire. Because literally every time they got someone half way competent he gets murdered
 
No Black Death means famines in Europe but once the Old World discovers the New World there is going to be a lot of people rushing to settle the new lands so their families don't starve to death...

But this also means that the nobility has more power for longer than in OTL.
 
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