No French Invasion of Tunisa - Who takes it?

Currently working on a TL with a far less adventurous France post-Franco Prussian War. Some quick look ups indicate that it was part of a deal if Britain takes Cyprus, then the French get Tunisia because they were not paying back their debts. The Germans stay quiet, the Italians kick and scream while the French tell them "Go get Libya".

So let's say Jules Ferry doesn't get into power or gets killed so France doesn't cross the border to track down raiders and get their debt back. Do the Italians take it? The British? Does it stay within Ottoman Autonomy?
 
Italy takes it. The Italians wanted it for themselves and there was a sizeable Italian population in a couple of towns in Tusinia.
 
What about the effects overall? Was the Tunisia issue alone a big enough deal to tie Italy to Central Powers?
 
It would be Italy. Now, it is a good question to see if this would spur them on to further conquests like Libya and other Ottoman areas as per OTL, or be satisfied with Tunisia. Also, how would the development and colonisation of Tunisia go?
 
Well their reason for taking Libya was because they were denied the chance of taking Tunisa by the French. It might be enough to satisfy the Italians though I wouldn't pass them to go forwards to taking Libya.
 
And what if the Italians use it as a place for Italian emigrants. The place had just 1 million people when the Italians unified. I'm sure they can do it.

It could give us an Italian Tunisia, part of Italy. It would be orgasmic:D
 
The thing is that it would take a government like the Fascists to really encourage emigration to the Italian colonies. Migration to Africa was extremely low.
 
Italy definately gets Tunisia. Libya may be split, British get Cyrenica, Italians get Tripolitania, Fezzan may go either way (though Italian seems more likely).
 
And what if the Italians use it as a place for Italian emigrants. The place had just 1 million people when the Italians unified. I'm sure they can do it.

It could give us an Italian Tunisia, part of Italy. It would be orgasmic:D

At the time France took Tunisia there were 109,000 Italians and 80,000 French.

With enough new Citizens going to Tunisia this would have been the next addition to the Italian Kingdom!
 
At the time France took Tunisia there were 109,000 Italians and 80,000 French.

With enough new Citizens going to Tunisia this would have been the next addition to the Italian Kingdom!


The prime minister of the time first Agostino De pretis then Benedetto Cairoli try the economic and emigration approch in the colonization of Tunisia instead of the military invasion becouse they feel that Italy was to weak to stand alone against France or Britain so, you may want someone more keen to adventurism in the italian governament and who feel France too weak to respond after the Franco-German war and remember that the 'schiaffo di Tunisi' was one of the reason of the enter of Italy in the Central Alliance.
For the massive colonization of Tunisia by italian people, well is certain more easily doable than Lybia, better weather, more land and the relations between italian colonist and local people very good at the time.
 
Currently working on a TL with a far less adventurous France post-Franco Prussian War. Some quick look ups indicate that it was part of a deal if Britain takes Cyprus, then the French get Tunisia because they were not paying back their debts. The Germans stay quiet, the Italians kick and scream while the French tell them "Go get Libya".

So let's say Jules Ferry doesn't get into power or gets killed so France doesn't cross the border to track down raiders and get their debt back. Do the Italians take it? The British? Does it stay within Ottoman Autonomy?

I was reading about this a couple of weeks ago and the basic problem for any POD is you need to remove the behind-the-scenes detail done at Berlin. Without the deal, though, certain tensions would remain between the powers.

IIRC when he found his country invaded the Bey of Tunis was a smidgeon pissed off and appealed to the powers for help. None gave it of course, because of the deal already done

If there had been no deal, and the Italians decided to invade then the Bey has a good case in appealing to the powers who haven't got a good case in ignoring him

Best Regards
Grey Wolf
 
The prime minister of the time first Agostino De pretis then Benedetto Cairoli try the economic and emigration approch in the colonization of Tunisia instead of the military invasion becouse they feel that Italy was to weak to stand alone against France or Britain so, you may want someone more keen to adventurism in the italian governament and who feel France too weak to respond after the Franco-German war and remember that the 'schiaffo di Tunisi' was one of the reason of the enter of Italy in the Central Alliance.
For the massive colonization of Tunisia by italian people, well is certain more easily doable than Lybia, better weather, more land and the relations between italian colonist and local people very good at the time.

Yea, Italy REALLY wants Tunisia, both for land and for strategic value (it's a natural invasion route for Sicily). Libya was taken OTL partly from "well, we didn't get Tunisia" and partly from the near-mythic "Fourth Shore" ideal of land for the overpopulated peasantry. If Libya could be trumped up as a "land of vines and grain" OTL, Tunisia will take that and run.

Asuming they can grab and hold it Italy stands a good chance of achieving the Fourth Shore dream and may be happy with it. Of course they may want to grab Libya too out of victory fever or some damnfool idea to "guard their flank" or something.

Assuming this doesn't butterfly Fascism then the Fourth Shore ethnic cleansing and colonization goes into high gear.
 
I fear I have to report a different opinion here.
Italy is NOT likely to conquer tunisia militarly.
From the unififacion onwards italy had indeed made a deep economic penetration in tunisia, and a sizeable part of populatuion had relations with italians, but up to 1910 italy made a point of pursuing the so-called "clean-hands policy", i.e. no military conquests.
this was not for idealistic purposes, but just because the government thought it would achieve the same result just by means of economic control. In albania, it worked. It was taken as a fact that everyone else accepted that tunisia was in the italian sphere of influence, and the french conquest was a severe shock (especially since the french cut down all the italian contracts and set up french ones) and spurred military ambitions ("we cannot trust them. we must do something or nothing will remain for us") which ended on libyan war.
Without the french conquest of tunisia, italy would have acquired economic control and de-facto political control(albania like), but not formal conquest
 
I fear I have to report a different opinion here.
Italy is NOT likely to conquer tunisia militarly.
From the unififacion onwards italy had indeed made a deep economic penetration in tunisia, and a sizeable part of populatuion had relations with italians, but up to 1910 italy made a point of pursuing the so-called "clean-hands policy", i.e. no military conquests.
this was not for idealistic purposes, but just because the government thought it would achieve the same result just by means of economic control. In albania, it worked. It was taken as a fact that everyone else accepted that tunisia was in the italian sphere of influence, and the french conquest was a severe shock (especially since the french cut down all the italian contracts and set up french ones) and spurred military ambitions ("we cannot trust them. we must do something or nothing will remain for us") which ended on libyan war.
Without the french conquest of tunisia, italy would have acquired economic control and de-facto political control(albania like), but not formal conquest

I agree with this, but Tunisia would probably end up a de fact protectorate- ie if another power tried to attack it later on Italy would step up to defend 'its colony'.
 
I fear I have to report a different opinion here.
Italy is NOT likely to conquer tunisia militarly.
From the unififacion onwards italy had indeed made a deep economic penetration in tunisia, and a sizeable part of populatuion had relations with italians, but up to 1910 italy made a point of pursuing the so-called "clean-hands policy", i.e. no military conquests.
this was not for idealistic purposes, but just because the government thought it would achieve the same result just by means of economic control. In albania, it worked. It was taken as a fact that everyone else accepted that tunisia was in the italian sphere of influence, and the french conquest was a severe shock (especially since the french cut down all the italian contracts and set up french ones) and spurred military ambitions ("we cannot trust them. we must do something or nothing will remain for us") which ended on libyan war.
Without the french conquest of tunisia, italy would have acquired economic control and de-facto political control(albania like), but not formal conquest

I agreed, but if France was little less determined in his decision of conquest, maybe she wait too long, maybe someone in Italy catch their intentions and try a preempetive conquest or better declare Tunisia an Italian protectorate for the saveguarding of italian economic interest (logically at least with Austria and Germany approval and if possible Great Britain disinterest) or maybe France is too determinated in his intention but in the wrong way, a lot of huffing and puffing but little real action, so Italy fearing a fait accomplì try to convince the Bey to a formal declaration of a protectorare with better term than the French but all depends if Rome can convince the other powers of Europe.
 

yourworstnightmare

Banned
Donor
One possibility is France allowing Italy to swallow Tunisia in an exchange for some "common security in North Africa" agreement, that'd push Italy towards the Entente earlier.
 
Now the interesting point would be that Austria-Hungary could claim that article 5 of the triple alliance applies here (to an augmentation of AH/Italy, a corrisponding augmentation of the other must follow).
So, what Franz Josef could wriggle out of it?
 
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