No Franco-Prussian War

Then Napoleon III probably would've gotten forced out. Bismarck's actions before 1870 were intended to inflame the French public, and it worked. If Napoleon III didn't opt for war, he would be perceived as kowtowing to the Prussians.

However, it would have robbed Bismarck of the war he so desperately needed to unify Germany. He probably would have pushed for some kind of war regardless.
 
Then Napoleon III probably would've gotten forced out. Bismarck's actions before 1870 were intended to inflame the French public, and it worked. If Napoleon III didn't opt for war, he would be perceived as kowtowing to the Prussians.

However, it would have robbed Bismarck of the war he so desperately needed to unify Germany. He probably would have pushed for some kind of war regardless.

He couldn't.

The whole point of the FPW was to rally the Southern states to the German cause and clear the way for unification. For that he needs France to be the aggressor. He can needle them a bit, as with the telegram, but he can't initiate hostilities, even supposing that the King (never enthusiastic about the Spanish business) would let him. Since 1866 he had been in a strong position, but he wasn't all-powerful.
 
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