No Franco-Prussian War

What if Napoleon III had igorned the Ems telegram and had not gone to war with Prussia? Would Prussia still be able to unite the southern German states into the empire? Would the Second Empire in France surive longer than it did OTL?
 
The easiest way to get this is to have Austria win Sadowa and thus Prussia loses a war that derails its entire rise right out of the starting gate.
 
What if Napoleon III had igorned the Ems telegram and had not gone to war with Prussia? Would Prussia still be able to unite the southern German states into the empire? Would the Second Empire in France surive longer than it did OTL?

Bismark was of the opion that Germany could not unite until the French where defeated, so it would have delayed the unification process at the very least.

Given the hostility between Prussia and the the second empire I can't see the two countries not getting into conflict however, as both Bismark and Napolean wanted the fight.
 
Bismark was of the opion that Germany could not unite until the French where defeated, so it would have delayed the unification process at the very least.

Given the hostility between Prussia and the the second empire I can't see the two countries not getting into conflict however, as both Bismark and Napolean wanted the fight.
No Napoleon III actually wanted to avoid war.
 
There would have been a war between France and Germany. ,

The Southern States were already "won" in the War of 1866, it was just not formalised (Bavaria had still its OWN Army in 1914-1918)

Maybe if Germany had NOT taken Alsace Lorraine in 1871 the relations between F+G would have been "better" in the years after 1871
 

Adler

Banned
No Napoleon III actually wanted to avoid war.

Well, it might not be his wish, but he had to. His internal problems were far too great to ignore the Ems depeche. Furthermore he wanted not only to get his diplomatic victory, which he indeed got with the retreat of the Hohenzollern prince, but a humiliation of Prussia. And therefore he had to know that this could backfire dramatically.

Adler
 
Maybe if Germany had NOT taken Alsace Lorraine in 1871 the relations between F+G would have been "better" in the years after 1871

In retrospect, yes, but Bismarck had shot his influence stopping the Prussians from taking bits of Austria (mainly the Sudetenland, IIRC) and, thereby, making them the enemy (making Prussia face the prospect of a two-front war against France as Austria joins in on the fun). Thus, he was basically forced to take something from France and A-L was the only thing on offer.

Now, granted, looking back, picking good relations with France over good relations with Austria would probably be the better idea, albeit one arguably worse for Germany as France's relative power means it's less likely to be reduced to a German client and would be more of an equal and an ally.

As for the OP, the obvious choice would be the Austrian victory in the Austro-Prussian war, since Prussia would be in no position to try anything after it. Otherwise ... well, it's not exactly unavoidable, but certainly necessary for German unification to go through. France cannot allow a unified German state to form on it's flank, so they'd have to fight a war unless Prussia decides to give up on it's ambitions regarding the unification of Germany (not something likely to work, they were committed to the path).
 

Adler

Banned
Bismarck opposed to take away AL. And indeed he might have succeeded, if the French had stopped fighting. But they didn't do so, even after Sedan. So it became nearly impossible not to demand AL. Oh, the French did offer Indochina as compensation. However, as the German fleet had just a few ships and even not enough men to give all of them a crew, he had to deny that. Also he needed a threat to bind all German states together.

OTOH, even if the French did not lose AL, I doubt they would have accepted the German unification. France was still the German arch enemy. Because of that I think they would have gone for war with Germany again.

Adler
 
Without the war, I think you'd have seen German unification come about; the North Germans were economically dominant, after all.

But it'd be a German pushed along by mass politics and commerce, without the founding mythos that emanated from Sedan and Versailles. Hrm.
 
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