During last week's Sealion TL, I realized that World War II would have ended before the 1944 Democratic Convention and Roosevelt would have had no excuse to run. So before we tackle the no fourth term issues.
I will now tell you how the war ends early enough.
Hitler decides even though he does not have control of the skies over Britain, he will still order Sealion. His plan is to have thousands of paratroopers dropped on the British country side. He assumes the can gain control and let the larger invasion in. The paratroops are slaughtered and the RAF and the Royal Navy destroy the invasion fleet. With the losses of Sealion Hitler decides to focus all his resources on the invasion of the Soviet Union.
In late 1941, with the USSR the only scene of fighting anywhere around Europe, the British station large number of Commonwealth troops in Burma and Malaysia. There are enough forces to turn back the Japanese invasion.
The US also enjoys great success against the Japanese in the early days of the war. A great intelligence coup allowed the US forces to prepare for the Japanese attack all ships are sent to sea. At Pearl Harbor, US fighters met the Zeros in the air. In the Philippines the airplanes were hidden. Also fortunate for the US was the decision following the Japanese invasion of China to dramatically increase the funding for the Filipino Army. The testimony of Philippine High Commissioner Paul V. McNutt was very effective. The ground forces in the Philippines turned away the Japanese invaders with plenty of air support. After April 1942's Battle of the Philippine Sea, the US controlled the South China Sea. In June, the vast majority American forces where sent to the Central Pacific. By November 1942, the Marianas are captured. In December, intensive bombing of the Japanese home islands begins.
The same month US forces enter the war in Europe as part of the Invasion of Sicily. Before the end of the month Mussolini is overthrown, the Allies sign a truce with the new government and Italy declares war on the invading Germans. In December, Allied forces are bogged down in Northern Italy fighting entrenched Germans.
The first important Allied victory of 1943 was January's conquest of Iwo Jima. In March and April Allied forces would take Okinawa. By September the Allied blockade of Japan was complete.
The big event in Europe in 1943 was July's invasion of Normandy. By September Allied forces moved across France.
The war would come to end in 1944. Fearful that the economic devastation caused by blockade and bombing would cause a revolt, Hirohito surrendered in April 1944. As Berlin was encircled, Hitler committed suicide on June 5, 1944, and the German High Command surrendered on June 6, 1944. Pacific War veterans who are arriving back in the states for their one month of leave celebrate the cancellation of their European tours/
Now with all that military history out of the way I can return to my first love politics. I don't know who would win the Democratic nomination. I know that Wallace and Byrnes would run but I don't see either one getting the nomination. The best case scenario is Truman as the compromise candidate. He however was a reluctant candidate for Vice President. I can't see him running for President. Although he won considerable respect with the Truman Committee, I don't think he would enjoy enough support.
I see no reason why Dewey does not win the Republican nomination. I think he wins the election. There will be a hard transition to the post war economy that will provoke public anger. Also the Democrats no longer have their most popular candidate.