No Fog Over Munich

[SteveW]

The Soviet invasion of Finland was scheduled for dawn on the 30th November. It was going to be a walkover. In fact, some of the troops on the Northern end of the front had been told not to accidentally penetrate Sweden, such was the confidence. Around Viipuri in particular, the Soviets were expecting an easy ride.

It came as a serious surprise then when, at 2 a.m. on the 30th, the Ninth Army took another blow. Finnish planes bombed the Soviet planes on the ground at several airfields- only one airfield was left unscathed. One plane escaped south to Leningrad and alerted the military authorities there around 5 a.m., as troops were crossing the Finnish border. General Meretskov wanted to release some of his aerial support, but was concerned that showing initiative would see him purged if it went wrong. Instead, he sent the message to Moscow.

Crossing the border, the Russian troops were full of confidence. Many of them were from the southern regions, and this was new terrain, but the propaganda told them they would triumph.

There was no Finnish resistance for around 7 miles, but the going was tough in the snow. Then, passing along a main road, part of the 50th Rifle Corps were attacked by camouflaged men, who punched a hole through a marching column and vanished into the snow on the other side. Few died on either side, but enough chaos was spread to delay the Corps' advance for several hours. Their attackers, unbeknownst at the time, were Italian Alpini troops.

 

[Grimm Reaper]

Can you explain how Finland's tiny air force suddenly becomes so effective?

If they hit every Soviet airfield in that area it would involve roughly 2-3 obsolete Finnish fighters per airfield as the entire Finnish air force was miniscule.

 

[arctic warrior]

Found this one http://www.winterwar.com/Numbers/FINairdefence.htm on the Finnish air force of the Winter War.

 

[SteveW]

Can you explain how Finland's tiny air force suddenly becomes so effective?

If they hit every Soviet airfield in that area it would involve roughly 2-3 obsolete Finnish fighters per airfield as the entire Finnish air force was miniscule.

With a little poetic licence

More seriously, everything goes the Finns' way here: the chaos on the ground, the communications breakdown. Helsinki is still going to be bombed senseless, though, and the Finnish airforce will struggle to survive until Italy supplies some planes.

 

[SteveW]

Although they were involved via proxies, the Winter War was a concern for the Germans but not pressing enough that it would distract from more urgent matters. Like dealing with France.

Despite being somewhat of a puppet figure, Hess still had to be listened to to an extent and he was determined that Germany crush France and try to sue for peace with Britain. Raeder and Keitel were willing to accomodate this wish, and so was Goering. If they could subdue France, and maybe even establish a client regime there, Western Europe would be secure.

 

[SteveW]

In the early hours of the 1st December 1939, Helsinki was awoken by flames. Soviet aircraft pounded the city and its suburbs, but due to evacuation, casualty numbers were lower than expected. Elsewhere, the Soviet troops had not advanced as quickly as assumed, and the Ninth Army in particular was having immense difficulties in the snow. Enterprising Finns had taken to shelling soup kitchens, which was not just making it hard to feed soldiers, but enormously demoralising them as well. The Soviet tank corps were also having to deal with a strange, rudimentary weapon consisting of petrol or alcohol in a bottle being thrown at tanks.

There was also now sporadic partisan violence to deal with in Karelia, which was occupying valuable resources which should have been directed towards supplying the front.

In the south, the Soviets were struggling to take Terijoki. The Alpini volunteers had harried their vanguard by day, and Finnish troops had machine-gunned their forest encampments by night. Finally, on the 3rd December, they took it-although by now it was ablaze, and totally useless for supply or staying in.

In fact, the Finns had been forced to pull back by the sheer force of the final Soviet wave. They had retreated to the railway junction at Tyriseva, which they dynamited. Between Tyriseva and Terijoki, there was almost nothing left. The locals had fled, the rails had been pulled up in various places, villages burned.

The Soviets would be welcomed by scorched earth, snow, and guerillas in the woods.

 

[fhaessig]

Plans began to develop. The old Schlieffen type of plan was considered out of the question, as it had failed miserably in the past and trench warfare was doomed to demoralise the population. General von Manstein's plan, to cut through the Ardennes, was kept on..

Given the personalities involved, I think that's ASB.

And Manstein's plan was NOT the german plan at that time, IIRC; it took a plane landing at the wrong place AND Hitler's preference's to make it adopted. SO, at that point, it's a very steep uphill battle to get it even seriously considered in OKW.

 

[Alratan]

Given the personalities involved, I think that's ASB.

And Manstein's plan was NOT the german plan at that time, IIRC; it took a plane landing at the wrong place AND Hitler's preference's to make it adopted. SO, at that point, it's a very steep uphill battle to get it even seriously considered in OKW.

I'll back this up. IIRC, it took Hitler's personal intervention to even get Manstein a hearing. I've heard strong arguments that it was this incredibly bold intervention that encouraged Hitler to believe he could meddle so whole heartedly and his record of being vindicated in the face of other's excessive caution that gave him the power to do so.

Almost literally, only Hitler could make a call this apparently insane.

 

[OperationGreen]

The Soviet tank corps were also having to deal with a strange, rudimentary weapon consisting of petrol or alcohol in a bottle being thrown at tanks.

Just wanted to point out that the Soviets will know everything about Molotov cocktails as it was Republican Spanish, which first used them, and the name is a big give away.

 

[SteveW]

Just wanted to point out that the Soviets will know everything about Molotov cocktails as it was Republican Spanish, which first used them, and the name is a big give away.

I accept your point, but IIRC, a lot of the troops sent to fight the Winter War were from small villages in the south and many even thought the Finnish commandos were forest spirits. So just a little poetic licence again!

 

[SteveW]

@fhaessig and Alratan- looking back over my notes, I have indeed managed to commit an ASB blunder there. Changed, and back to the drawing board....

 

[SteveW]

With the top brass of the Nazi Party either dead, imprisoned or (more likely) rising up even closer to the top, there was tension lower in the ranks. Hitler had been an inspiring figure to many of them; to some, he remained a betrayer of the original ideals of their Party.

But the Left Nazis were going to get nowhere. The military men who now called the shots would never put up with the regime turning into a radical socialist grouping. Nonetheless, the Nazis were becoming split without the unifying figure of Hitler.

 

[SteveW]

Visitors

On the 3rd December 1939 at Berlin, Hess and Raeder received a number of delegates from sympathetic countries and groupings. The most prominent of these was Count Ciano, the Italian Foreign Minister, and Admiral Horthy, the Hungarian Regent. Ciano was ushered in to see Keitel, to his great surprise.

Ciano was sent back to Rome with a proposal for Mussolini. Next year, France would be invaded, although no details of the plan were given. All that was said was that the Italian Army should be ready for battle in May. And that in return, Italy would annex Savoy and the southern coast as far west as Hyeres.

Another visitor was Juan Luis Beigbeider, Ciano's Spanish opposite number. Again, few details were given, but Beigbeder returned to Spain with a request that Spain be ready to attack Gibraltar in May 1940. Whether General Franco would accept was a different matter.

 

[SteveW]

Otto Ville Kuusinen was the first President of the Finnish Democratic Republic, a Soviet puppet regime intended to become the new government. On the 6th December 1939, he was able to survey his new capital, Terijoki. It was an impressive collection of burnt-down buildings and unburied corpses, with a heavy garnish of snow. It was, all in all, a disaster.

The Soviet advance had been dramatically slowed. Not only had the scorched earth policy worked a treat, but the Finns had really got into the swing of shelling field kitchens. In addition, some Finns were now operating behind Russian lines, harrying supply vehicles and forcing the redeployment of troops. There was a major success for the Finns on the 7th December, when Finnish commandos blew up the railway line near Kuokkala, severing the line for several days.

 

[The BigI]

Just curious why was Goebbels demoted from his postion as Minister of Propaganda?? I thing this vile creature was good at was propaganda.

I like where this is heading.

 

[SteveW]

Just curious why was Goebbels demoted from his postion as Minister of Propaganda?? I thing this vile creature was good at was propaganda.

I like where this is heading.

Thanks very much!

It's not so much that he ahs been demoted as pushed sideways- Keitel wants to avoid such a potentially powerful rival from having a place to shout from.

 

[Vaude]

I really like this. Good job SteveW! Look forward to the alternate campaign against France. But, I have to say, I think it is very implausible that Franco's Spain will join with the Axis. Hitler made many offers, and Franco steadfastly refused, because the country had already been wracked with years of war, and he believed that Spain needed at least a decade for reconstruction.

 

[SteveW]

On the 8th December 1939, Admiral Doenitz announced the government's intent to begin unrestricted submarine warfare in the North Sea. This naturally led to protests from the Danish, Norwegian and Dutch governments, who were deeply concerned.

And the Dutch indeed had reason to be worried. For the new German plan was to invade the Netherlands and increase the pressure on France by threatening Belgium. Raeder, Hess and Keitel were now convinced that the Dutch coast would be the perfect place to conduct mass submarine warfare from, and to attack England.

Grim times lay ahead.

 

[SteveW]

I really like this. Good job SteveW! Look forward to the alternate campaign against France. But, I have to say, I think it is very implausible that Franco's Spain will join with the Axis. Hitler made many offers, and Franco steadfastly refused, because the country had already been wracked with years of war, and he believed that Spain needed at least a decade for reconstruction.

Thanks very much! Don't worry, Spain will be the same IOTL- Franco, as ever, will be a master bulls***ter.

 

[SteveW]

One of the odder moments of the war came in early December 1939 ( the dates are unclear, as the official papers are still to be released). The German ambassador to Dublin made overtures to the Taoiseach, Eamon de Valera. This is now known from de Valera's own statements later to have included a suggestion that Ireland allow a German occupation in return for the North when the war was 'won'.

De Valera did not give the offer a second thought-he refused outright. Carelessly, the ambassador's aide hinted that there were other people he could speak to.

De Valera knew who this meant-the IRA. He would have to take action sooner rather than later.