Wartime production resulted in a surplus of arms and munitions in Europe and North America that found ready buyers in China after the conclusion of hostilities, much to the relief of the sagging Western economies. These transactions were in turn financed by foreign loans (issued immediately after China's entry into the war) originally intended to equip Chinese armies for operations against the Far Eastern territorial holdings of Germany. IOTL, the end result was the diversion of these arms and war loans to and amongst the internally warring cliques and factions that dominated the Warlord Era, further fueling the conflicts of the Anhui and Fengtian in particular.
So if we butterfly away the First World War, would it be plausible to say that the Western arms influx into China during the interwar era of OTL might be butterflied away to a large extent as well? While the arms trade would still exist, the scale of it might be severely reduced without a post war surplus created by the downsizing of the Allied militaries and forced demilitarization of the defeated Central Powers and their successor states. While this might end up forcing Chinese armies to rely on the output of the local arsenals and munitions plants, I was wondering if anyone had a better idea of the pre-war dynamics of the Western arms trade with China and whether or not the status quo pre-antebellum would've held out for another decade or so.
In regards to further impacts, I'm also thinking the absence of the White Russian exodus of military units and technicians into China might have some sort of effect on the development of the warlord conflicts as well, but I don't feel well versed enough in the OTL history to comment in depth on those ramifications.
Anything else I missed aside from the butterflying away of the populist indignation at the postwar German concessions/territorial handovers?
So if we butterfly away the First World War, would it be plausible to say that the Western arms influx into China during the interwar era of OTL might be butterflied away to a large extent as well? While the arms trade would still exist, the scale of it might be severely reduced without a post war surplus created by the downsizing of the Allied militaries and forced demilitarization of the defeated Central Powers and their successor states. While this might end up forcing Chinese armies to rely on the output of the local arsenals and munitions plants, I was wondering if anyone had a better idea of the pre-war dynamics of the Western arms trade with China and whether or not the status quo pre-antebellum would've held out for another decade or so.
In regards to further impacts, I'm also thinking the absence of the White Russian exodus of military units and technicians into China might have some sort of effect on the development of the warlord conflicts as well, but I don't feel well versed enough in the OTL history to comment in depth on those ramifications.
Anything else I missed aside from the butterflying away of the populist indignation at the postwar German concessions/territorial handovers?