No First Intifada; Israel Returns Most of the West Bank to Jordan in the 1990s or 2000s

CaliGuy

Banned
Based on this article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peres–Hussein_London_Agreement

I'm curious about this--what if the First Intifada would have somehow been prevented and Israel would have returned most of the West Bank to Jordan in a final peace treaty in either the 1990s or in the 2000s?

Would the Palestinians, other Arab countries, and the international community have actually accepted such a peace deal?

Also, what would have happened afterwards in this scenario?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
FTR, given the fact that Jordan actually did make peace with Israel in 1994 in our TL, I suspect that it would be easier for Israel to make a deal in regards to the West Bank with Jordan in a no-First-Intifada scenario than it was for Israel to make a deal in regards to the West Bank with the Palestinians in our TL.
 
Does Jordan even want the place back?

Without an Intifada there is likely to be at least some push for annexing the whole lot populace included and a bigger one to set up a transitional government for the West Bank sans Jerusalem.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Does Jordan even want the place back?

It did until 1988 and apparently only changed its mind due to the First Intifada.

Without an Intifada there is likely to be at least some push for annexing the whole lot populace included and a bigger one to set up a transitional government for the West Bank sans Jerusalem.

What about if Jordan still wants the West Bank back, though?
 

Pangur

Donor
Yes--just like Israel engaged in a land grab with its annexation of various territory in 1948-1949.
Then why are you asking about what is effectively returning stolen land to the first thief rather than the owner? The very concept is at the heart of the issue. Palestine is not Jordan
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Then why are you asking about what is effectively returning stolen land to the first thief rather than the owner? The very concept is at the heart of the issue. Palestine is not Jordan
By your logic, though, Israel should withdraw to its 1947 UN Partition Plan borders instead of only withdrawing to the 1949-1967 lines.
 
I'm not even in favour of an Israeli state, the place is untenable, Israel exists because of western support, should a day come where that support stops it's only a matter of when and not if it's arab neighbors swallow up the area.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
I'm not even in favour of an Israeli state, the place is untenable, Israel exists because of western support, should a day come where that support stops it's only a matter of when and not if it's arab neighbors swallow up the area.
Arab countries tried to destroy Israel in 1948, 1967, and 1973 and failed all times; indeed, Arab countries simply appear to be rather incompetent militarily.
 
Arab countries tried to destroy Israel in 1948, 1967, and 1973 and failed all times; indeed, Arab countries simply appear to be rather incompetent militarily.
Im willing to bet the Arabs would have done much better if you took away Israel's western benefactors.
 

PhilippeO

Banned
Based on this article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peres–Hussein_London_Agreement

I'm curious about this--what if the First Intifada would have somehow been prevented and Israel would have returned most of the West Bank to Jordan in a final peace treaty in either the 1990s or in the 2000s?

Would the Palestinians, other Arab countries, and the international community have actually accepted such a peace deal?

Also, what would have happened afterwards in this scenario?

No, Israel would still seize East Jerusalem in that scenario. majority of Muslims and Arab countries would still condemn the peace, and Jordan would suffer from accusation of treason to Muslim community abroad and Palestinian guerrilla inside.
 
There would not be an intifada. More likely a Jordanian civil war as the population of the Hashemite kingdom is even more Palestinian than in OTL. What happens next depend on who wins or a stalemate. Would the Israelis side with a Palestine or Jordan? That would probably depend on whether the Palestinians are lead by the PLO, hamas, local tribal leaders or what the Hashemites offer.
 
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