No First Gulf War

So, let's just say that Saddam is a bit smarter and decides not to invade Kuwait out of fear of causing a massive international outcry.
He bullies the Kuwaitis by letting his divisions roll up the border and the Kuwaitis make some kind of agreement with him, giving him 5% of their oil export income per year.
What happens now?
How does this influence the whole Middle East development?
Does Iraq get nukes in the mid-1990s?
Does Iraq go against Iran again (with nukes)?
Does Israel get nuked or does Israel nuke Iraq?
 
UN Sanctions if not the moving of a US carrier group into the Gulf to assist the Kuwaitis to not pay 5% on their oil income. I doubt any of the other Gulf states will be willing to allow such a precident be set.
 

Anaxagoras

Banned
UN Sanctions if not the moving of a US carrier group into the Gulf to assist the Kuwaitis to not pay 5% on their oil income. I doubt any of the other Gulf states will be willing to allow such a precident be set.

If you actual invasion took place, I think that Russia would veto such a resolution. And I do not think that the Americans would react so strongly as to dispatch a carrier group.

Also, remember that Iraq owed money to a lot of the other Arab states. They might have actually supported the 5% plan so as to provide more revenue to the Iraqis so as to enable them to pay their debts.
 
=Also, remember that Iraq owed money to a lot of the other Arab states. They might have actually supported the 5% plan so as to provide more revenue to the Iraqis so as to enable them to pay their debts.

And that is exactly why the other Gulf states would not have allowed Kuwait to be bullied by Iraq. For one thing, I do agree that the international community wouldn't have allowed Iraq to push Kuwait around, and a situation like this would probably end up with sanctions or worse for Iraq. Plus, I think that most of the Gulf states, since they're all monarchies with a relatively tenuous hold on their populaces, tend to stick together. As said before, if Iraq would try to push around one of them, I think the others--Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc.--would call for international assistance.
 
The agreement would of course have been SECRET.
Otherwise Kuwait would lose to much face and Iraq would be in danger on being sanctioned.
 
The agreement would of course have been SECRET.
Otherwise Kuwait would lose to much face and Iraq would be in danger on being sanctioned.

Doubtful. IIRC Kuwait was chummy with the US and the West even before the Gulf War, not to mention the fact that I don't see any national government agreeing to the sort of thing you're developing. What does Kuwait have to lose by saying no? If Iraq invades, I bet things happen very near OTL.
 
Okay, let me revise this.
Since the general opinion here is that Kuwait won't be bullied around, let's say the following happens...


1. Saddam tries to bully Kuwait, asking them for 5% of their income.
2. Kuwait says no.
3. Saddam threatens to use force, a couple of Presidential Guards divisions move towards the border.
4. Kuwait freaks out and calls for help. At the same time, Keyhole satellites see the divisions moving.
5. The US issue a warning, reminding Saddam of the trouble he is gonna get into, if he doesn't stand down. A carrier battle group is ordered to head for the Gulf, the story is made public.
6. Saddam realises he has lost the element of surprise and orders his forces to stand down.

During the following years Saddam does not try anything else against Kuwait. With the Iran-Iraq war over he has a lot on his hands to take care of. Iraq starts investing heavily in the oil industry, importing foreign equipment and modernising the infrastructure. The oil industry is partially sold to foreign bidders, with the French and the US gaining large shares. The Iraqi economy progresses.
Iraq is being modernised, with a large shift to better infrastructure. Since most of the country's population are however Shiites, Saddam does not spend that money to improve the everyday life of his citizens.
The nuclear arms programme continues to flurish and leads to growing concerns in Israel. Iraq strikes a deal with the North Koreans, exchanging know-how on ballistic missiles, nuclear, chemical and biological weapons.

So now what?

What does Iraq go from here?

Can they develop their nukes before Israel strikes?
Will Israel strike before Iraq get's ready, risking a chemical and biological retaliation or is the risk of waiting for Iraq to finish its nukes to big?
Does the international community react to Iraq's weapons proliferation?
 
Can they develop their nukes before Israel strikes?
Will Israel strike before Iraq get's ready, risking a chemical and biological retaliation or is the risk of waiting for Iraq to finish its nukes to big?
Does the international community react to Iraq's weapons proliferation?

Unless Iraq manages to be very, very sneaky about their NBC plans, Israel will strike as soon as they see a legitimate threat. They didn't have a problem doing it in 1981 and I doubt they'd have a problem trying again.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera
 
Operation Opera was targetted against the Osirak reactor. It was a great success back at its days.
However Iraq managed to develop and sustain a secret project to develop the bomb that was relative close to producing the first nukes prior to the 1991 bombing campaign.
 
However Iraq managed to develop and sustain a secret project to develop the bomb that was relative close to producing the first nukes prior to the 1991 bombing campaign.

That is news to me. What are your sources for that statement, if you don't mind me asking?
 
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