Fearless Leader
Donor
I was re-reading Peter Hopkirk's book The Great Game and came across and interesting tidbit that I thought would make for an interesting TL. Namely the fact that prior to the First Anglo-Afghani War the Emir of Afghanistan, Dost Mohammed Khan actively sought an Alliance with the British. Having just lost Peshawar to Ranjit Singh's Sikh Empire. They sought to get it back and offered an alliance in exchange for British Aid. Now in OTL, Britain turned them down setting in motion events that culminated in the First Anglo-Afghani War.
But let's alter the playing field a little bit...In OTL Ranjit Singh, the leader of the Sikh Empire died in 1839, so let's make our POD that he dies a few years earlier in 1836. In OTL, the death of Ranjit Singh led to an unstable succession and civil war within the Sikh Empire, undoubtedly this would happen in TTL with his earlier death. Let's also posit that for the sake of the TL, the civil war that followed Singh's death in TTL accellerates faster than OTL. So when Alexander Burnes begins to negotiate with Dost Mohammed Khan of Afghanistan, the Sikh Empire is in the middle of tearing itself apart in the aftermath of Singh's earlier death.
Now all of a sudden, in TTL Dost Mohammed Khan's offer of an alliance in exchange for Peshawar doesn't seem so bad to the British. One of the major reasons the British turned him down was not wanting to anger Ranjit Singh, as they saw the Sikh Empire as an effective buffer state for British India. Let's say that TTL's violence in Punjab is enough to convince the Governor General, Lord Auckland to side with the Afghans as a way to protect British India. The resulting First Anglo-Sikh war pits the Afghans and the British against the various factions within the Sikh Empire. I don't see the Sikh's winning and so after a year or so (no more than 2) of fighting a peace is negotiated that gives Peshawar to Afghanistan (perhaps some other areas) and a large hunk of the Punjab to Britain.
Now the real question is whether or not this alliance between Dost Mohammed Khan and Britain will last. I don't see a reason why it couldn't especially if Dost Mohammed sees the alliance as a means with which to enrich and enlarge his domains in exchange for protecting British India. In addition to eliminating the Anglo-Afghan Wars, such an alliance would drastically change the Great Game as a friendly Afghanistan would allow the British to project their power much deeper into Central Asia, though what effect this would have, I do not know.
Another interesting knock on effect would be that of the Indian Rebellion. In OTL the defeat of the British in the First Anglo-Afghan War played a major role in creating the atmosphere needed for a rebellion. In TTL there isn't any Anglo-Afghan War and I highly doubt that the British are going to take the same amount of casualties in TTL's version of the First Anglo Sikh War, or the subsequent one(s) that are sure to follow. Though not averting the Indian Rebellion in TTL it might be perhaps delayed...
Other thoughts?
But let's alter the playing field a little bit...In OTL Ranjit Singh, the leader of the Sikh Empire died in 1839, so let's make our POD that he dies a few years earlier in 1836. In OTL, the death of Ranjit Singh led to an unstable succession and civil war within the Sikh Empire, undoubtedly this would happen in TTL with his earlier death. Let's also posit that for the sake of the TL, the civil war that followed Singh's death in TTL accellerates faster than OTL. So when Alexander Burnes begins to negotiate with Dost Mohammed Khan of Afghanistan, the Sikh Empire is in the middle of tearing itself apart in the aftermath of Singh's earlier death.
Now all of a sudden, in TTL Dost Mohammed Khan's offer of an alliance in exchange for Peshawar doesn't seem so bad to the British. One of the major reasons the British turned him down was not wanting to anger Ranjit Singh, as they saw the Sikh Empire as an effective buffer state for British India. Let's say that TTL's violence in Punjab is enough to convince the Governor General, Lord Auckland to side with the Afghans as a way to protect British India. The resulting First Anglo-Sikh war pits the Afghans and the British against the various factions within the Sikh Empire. I don't see the Sikh's winning and so after a year or so (no more than 2) of fighting a peace is negotiated that gives Peshawar to Afghanistan (perhaps some other areas) and a large hunk of the Punjab to Britain.
Now the real question is whether or not this alliance between Dost Mohammed Khan and Britain will last. I don't see a reason why it couldn't especially if Dost Mohammed sees the alliance as a means with which to enrich and enlarge his domains in exchange for protecting British India. In addition to eliminating the Anglo-Afghan Wars, such an alliance would drastically change the Great Game as a friendly Afghanistan would allow the British to project their power much deeper into Central Asia, though what effect this would have, I do not know.
Another interesting knock on effect would be that of the Indian Rebellion. In OTL the defeat of the British in the First Anglo-Afghan War played a major role in creating the atmosphere needed for a rebellion. In TTL there isn't any Anglo-Afghan War and I highly doubt that the British are going to take the same amount of casualties in TTL's version of the First Anglo Sikh War, or the subsequent one(s) that are sure to follow. Though not averting the Indian Rebellion in TTL it might be perhaps delayed...
Other thoughts?