No Falaise Pocket

[Deleted member 1487]

Let's say that Hitler does not order operation Luettich
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Luttich

Which caused the collapse of the German's positions in Normandy and directly led to the Falaise gap. Instead Von Kluge's withdrawal to the Seine is ordered and a (relatively) good order pull out is accomplished. The allies are not likely to advance quickly on the West Front, as the Germans don't just collapse and flee. Rather a strong line is set up on the Seine. Does Paris become a battle group and what does this mean for the Eastern Front, especially considering that instead of having to rebuild their forces in the West, the Germans have a (again, relatively) intact force.

 

[The Dean]

This is quite an interesting POD, keeping the fighting further to the west would give the German forces a supply problem. The slow breakout from Normandy kept the Germans at the end of a long supply line that was vulnerable to Allied air power anyway. This coupled with shorter lines of supply to the Allies that the Germans could not interdict would be a great advantage to the Allied forces in contact with the enemy. There could be various butterflies such as an earlier push to liberate the channel ports or a pincher move with the forces from Operation Dragoon in late '44.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I doubt a pincer would work out, as OTL the ANVIL got bogged down quickly, as resources were shifted north and the mountains in the south of France got in the way. The Germans are shortening their supply line significantly here as the Allies lengthen theirs. I agree that airpower would reek havoc on supply lines, but really would it be that much greater? Basically the Seine plan would have the Germans pull back to Paris and hold on the River, which is bound to cause even Patton some trouble. Especially if German troops are intact and still vets (Brittany would be evacuated too, which means that the veterean Fallschirmjaeger will be available). Look what the Rhine did OTL.

Basically I expect (correct me if I am wrong) that by sacrificing ground for lives, the Germans are going to be able to pull back and set up a tough position on the Seine. There is going to be some reasonable attrition from airpower as it happens, but the majority of forces are able to make it with their equipment instead of getting wiped out at Falaise or surrendering in Brittany. Paris is likely to turn into another Warsaw, as an uprising results in a viscious crackdown. The Seine is going to form a line that the Allies feared would delay their advance in the West into mid-45. Now, I am really wondering what this means for the East Front. Without having to spend so many resources to rebuild the West Front and transfer forces to shore up the line, the East Front is going to have some extra forces and equipment that did not exist OTL. What this means for the war, I have no idea, but would like some feedback. Does this delay the end until nukes or will things still end near the same time with Russia having to strike further west and turning their conquests back over to the Allies?

Now what is the situation post-war if Paris becomes a street to street battle? What do the Western allies do if they lose many more men fighting the Germans?

 

[mattep74]

Couldnt the allies be helped by having the Seine to build up on instead of beeing stretched thin after the race through France OTL.

Just how far does the German line go? Can they mantain a line all the way to the swiss border?

South of the line the allies regroup and have their aipower strike the german positions.

Ok, the weather will detoriate after a month and the fine summerdays will end in September, but can Germany hold that long?

 

[The Dean]

If the Germans decide to make a stand as far west as the Seine they will have a supply nightmare. As for Paris the Allies can simply bypass it.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

The Seine is not that far west for the Germans, I don't know why it would be that much of a problem besides allied airpower. As far as Paris goes, it cannot just be out flanked so easily with so many intact German formations in the way.

For an idea of how is would play out, here is a map of OTL:
http://www.45thdivision.org/CampaignsBattles/Rhineland/map1lg.jpg
that basically shows how things played out, which is basically what the Seine plan by von Kluge wanted, except now 150,000 troops with equipment and in intact formations that were not wiped out at Falaise and around 80,000 men (many vets) not captured in Brittany are now holding the river lines at the Seine and the villages Dreux and Chartres on a forward, unnamed river on the map. OTL the massive, sweeping maneuvers that men like Patton were famous for were done against a retreating, devestated enemy that will not be happening here. Also, there are no forward ports that can be used to support the advance. Don't expect to be at Paris by the 25 of August like OTL. The Americans were not supermen and would need to fight their way forward.

 

[rip89]

If the allies are still on the seine come winter, would we still get a german offensive like the battle of the bulge?

 

[The Dean]

The Seine is 200 miles west of the Rhine and it is south of the UK and all of the air bases there. It would be fatal for the Germans to stand there instead of the Rhine.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Normandy was much close and there was an effective stand there for nearly 1 month. I am not saying that the Germans are going to be able to hold, rather the formations that were wiped out OTL would allow the West Front to stabilize and slow the advance of the allies for several more months than OTL.

 

[burmafrd]

The Germans held on in Normandy mostly due to the Bocage. Those hedgerows were great for a defense.
Due to total control of the air Germany could no longer fight a war of maneuver. Once the Allies broke out it was all over until they outran their supplies and the weather got bad. And the germans had time to rebuild and rework the Siegfreid Line. Trying to hold a line on the Seine is a bad idea because its open territory and they did not have time to build the fortifications necessary. And the weather was very good until the beginning of October.

 

[Emethyst]

Just how far does the German line go? Can they mantain a line all the way to the swiss border?

If they didn't the Germans would still take some time to dislodge. You cannot simply bypass a strong defensive line and strike into the rear without having proper flanking support, otherwise you run the risk of your offensive being cut off and surrounded. If the Germans did survive Falaise, expect most Allied troops to be concentrated along the Seine trying to break through across it instead of trying to find a way around it (I can't see the Allies trying to mass troops east of the Seine, they would need the offensive in southern France to proceed ahead of schedule to gain the necessary supply lines, though correct me if i'm wrong).

 

[Catspoke]

There would be considerable economic gain if the Germans can hold Belgium, Southern Holland and Northwestern France for a few extra months.

In addition you can keep more of the Luftwaffe bomber tracking / radar setup in the area operational longer.

Also the V1 attack can be kept going longer and the V2 can be launched closer to London.

However I wonder if the best thing to do is to fall back on the 1914 Metz fortifications, Liege, Albert Canal, Antwerp, Walcheren and make a real effort to hold this line with the extra forces, with the seigfried as a fall back line and the Rhine as the third.

 

[Serenissima]

It might seem a positive for the Germans, but I think it'd balance out: the Allied supply lines wouldn't have become overstretched and they'd have been able to put their whole force, fresh and supplied, into the battles rather than the elongated lines with supply and fatigue problems they had OTL.

The Seine would probably be crossed in the same way as the Rhine in the later Operation Plunder/Varsity.