Bill Cameron
Banned
I don't doubt the potential of all the scenarios you folks are tossing about but one thing that is apparent is that you are all making the same mistake the European powers made OTL during WWII in underestimating Japan's assets.
Ziomatix,
No one is discounting the IJN. On the other hand, we're not counting the IJN's strength and assets in 1941 for a potential war in the mid-1930s either.
For one thing from the 1930s at least up until Midway Japan had the 3rd largest navy in the world which was concentrated in the Pacific.
And, without a European war, the European navies, one of which is already larger than the IJN, can concentrate in the Pacific too.
Not to mention they had 23 of the most advanced destroyers which other navies such as the US's didn't have single vessel to match it in its class until 1934.
You still need to fuel destroyers and the USN is moot in this scenario.
Then you can also factor in it was the only other navy in the world aside from the US (or maybe French if they indeed had a chance to show themselves and militarily build up) to utilize modern aircraft carrier centric naval warfare of the kind that repelled the Pacific British Task Force alphabet soup.
First, Task Force Z was sunk by land based aircraft. Second, the carriers and carrier aircraft Japan used in the OTL Pacific war weren't around in the 1930s.
Soryu and Hiryu won't be launched until 1937 and the two Shokakus won;t be launched until 1941. Counting the marginal Hosho, the IJN has only four aircraft carriers as late as 1936. An examination of exactly what types of carrier aircraft were available in the mid-30s should be equally startling to you. The famous A6M Zero weren't operational until mid-1940 for example and then only in the A6M2 version.
Once again, you're counting on assets that appeared later than the period in question.
Also the Japanese had the initial upper hand in the battle of the hearts and minds...
That upper hand is nonexistent in China and the IJN isn't going to be landing divisions unopposed across southeast Asia as it did in the OTL.
I am not saying that Japan would have had the chance to score a total victory...
We're not saying it will be a cakewalk for the Europeans and Chinese either, but our appraisal of the mid-1930s Japanese military machine is far more realistic than yours.
Bill