No Eritrean–Ethiopian War

What would be the impact of no Eritrean–Ethiopian War

How much better off would Eritrea and Ethiopia be without the millions spend on the war and the disruptions on trade
 

trurle

Banned
What would be the impact of no Eritrean–Ethiopian War

How much better off would Eritrea and Ethiopia be without the millions spend on the war and the disruptions on trade
I am not sure the outcome will be "better". Keeping Eritrea in Ethiopia will require a sort of brutal repression of Eritrean rebels, which is likely to trigger severe UN and African Union sanctions, may be until military intervention. Even if suppressed initially, the rebellion is likely to re-erupt during Second Congo War around 2000 AD.
 
I am not sure the outcome will be "better". Keeping Eritrea in Ethiopia will require a sort of brutal repression of Eritrean rebels, which is likely to trigger severe UN and African Union sanctions, may be until military intervention. Even if suppressed initially, the rebellion is likely to re-erupt during Second Congo War around 2000 AD.
You could simply give Eritrea independence right after World War II, though. That'll deal with this issue.
 
Depending on the PoD, you could have Haile Selassie die some time in the late 50s or early 60s which means that his son, the more liberal Amha Selassie would focus on maintaining Eritrean autonomy. Another way is to have Eritrea become independent after the Second World War.

If you’re referring to the war in the 90s, then just have the border between the two be properly demarcated.
 
The most ideal and plausible situation is for Ethiopia to keep Assab. Ethiopian development would probably be years further than it is now, and Eritrea would barely lose anything.
 
Are you saying that Ethiopia should keep a bit of southern Eritrea?

Absolutely, it makes sense from every standpoint to avoid being a landlocked nation. Even now, a lot of imports to Ethiopia are shipped through Assab (as was the case throughout most of the 20th century). The territory is simple enough to hold down, and modern Ethiopia is by no means afraid of human rights violations to maintain control (they seem to like China's approach), so I'm not sure why they surrendered Assab. Given the international links (the Gulf monarchies have been involved in the region), and the historic nature of the city (control of the city was the start of Italian colonisation in Eritrea), it seems very odd that it's a backwater instead of being one of the most vibrant cities of Ethiopia as it might be. From what I can tell, Ethiopia shot itself in the foot by not maintaining a seaport and becoming reliant on Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti for sea access. Ethiopia might have appealed to the global community to maintain Assab for help in future economic development when the peace was settled, given the challenge of landlocked developing countries.

Just searching "Assab Ethiopia" brings up tons of articles from local journalists, scholars, etc. about how important Assab is to Ethiopia's development. Even now, I searched it and found a bunch of new articles compared to a year or two ago. Ideally, the region would be a lot better if Ethiopia can reach some deal with Eritrea transferring Assab and a narrow strip around it to the country in exchange for money, economic aid, etc.
 
Absolutely, it makes sense from every standpoint to avoid being a landlocked nation. Even now, a lot of imports to Ethiopia are shipped through Assab (as was the case throughout most of the 20th century). The territory is simple enough to hold down, and modern Ethiopia is by no means afraid of human rights violations to maintain control (they seem to like China's approach), so I'm not sure why they surrendered Assab. Given the international links (the Gulf monarchies have been involved in the region), and the historic nature of the city (control of the city was the start of Italian colonisation in Eritrea), it seems very odd that it's a backwater instead of being one of the most vibrant cities of Ethiopia as it might be. From what I can tell, Ethiopia shot itself in the foot by not maintaining a seaport and becoming reliant on Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti for sea access. Ethiopia might have appealed to the global community to maintain Assab for help in future economic development when the peace was settled, given the challenge of landlocked developing countries.

Just searching "Assab Ethiopia" brings up tons of articles from local journalists, scholars, etc. about how important Assab is to Ethiopia's development. Even now, I searched it and found a bunch of new articles compared to a year or two ago. Ideally, the region would be a lot better if Ethiopia can reach some deal with Eritrea transferring Assab and a narrow strip around it to the country in exchange for money, economic aid, etc.
Oh no, I agree with you - we should've kept a port like Massawa or Assab, alongside a strip of southern Eritrea.
 
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