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What would the effects be on the Northeast if the Erie Canal had never been constructed?

Even though my initial POD is more military, my question is more of an economic one. Let's say the War of 1812 goes swimmingly for Britain and the new border is the Mohawk River-Lake Oneida-Oneida River-Lake Ontario in New York state.

I assume that instead Britain builds an earlier St. Lawrence Seaway and more locks connecting Lake Champlain to the St. Lawrence because the Americans won't be able to put up a fuss like they did OTL.

Does New York City become as dominant as it did in OTL? How would this affect settlement patterns further west?

Just a few thoughts.
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