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From what I can tell, the Energia-Buran program that the USSR pursued from the mid 70s to 1989 was, while somewhat cheaper than the STS development program, still hugely expensive and produced a system that didn't really fit any need that the USSR would actually face in the 80s or (had the country survived) the 90s onward.
So WI the Soviet leadership are able to resist the temptation to copy the US shuttle and instead something like the following plan is decided on:
*Continued use of Semyorka variants for the smaller launches.
*"Zenit" (11K77) chosen as the medium-lift rocket
*A hydrolox upper stage plus appropriate engine to be developed for the 11K77
*Heavy lift variants of the "Zenit" are pursued like the proposals for the 11K37 vehicle or the later Sodruzhestvo proposals (depending on the exact variant, these were envisioned as being able to launch 25-75 tonnes to LEO)
*Development of a small space plane for launch atop a "Zenit" or "Proton" launcher (like OTL's MIG 105, the rumored Uragan, MAKS or the LKS) with military, crew transport and cargo transport variants being produced to cover
*Long term investigation of air-launch systems for the small space plane (as per the original MIG 105 plans and the MAKS plans).
This would, altogether, meet the USSR's own needs and desires at the cost of leaving it without their own shuttle-sized "orbital bomber" and short of the immense payloads that OTL's Energia could launch. The Soviets would gain experience with hydrolox, they would simplify their launch systems, gain the ability to launch larger payloads and increase the re-usability of their craft.
How useful do people think the Zenit-based heavy lift vehicles would be?
And how useful would a mini-shuttle be? Looking at some of the proposals, I wonder if they wouldn't run aground for similar reasons that Hermes did. Would an attempt at a mini shuttle mean no shuttle for the Soviets?
If the mini-shuttle were useful, how likely would they be to see use after in a post-collapse Russian space program?
Can the Soviets, or the Russians post-collapse, make air-launched mini-shuttles viable if resources hadn't gone into Energia-Buran?