no Egyptian-Israeli peace?

what would the world look like if no Peace between Israel and Egypt in 1978 happened, in fact how long can the post Yom Kippur War borders last?

some helpful maps:

OTL withdrawal
history-of-israel2.gif


post-YKW:
hist_yom_kippur_war_1973.gif
 
It all depends on how much money Israel continues to receive. If they can get someone, anyone, to pay the bills for their military, they can continue to hold on to the land for as long as they want. If they can't pay for their army, they'll need to draw down their forces, and a face-saving (for all sides) peace treaty is the best way to do that.
 
It all depends on how much money Israel continues to receive. If they can get someone, anyone, to pay the bills for their military, they can continue to hold on to the land for as long as they want. If they can't pay for their army, they'll need to draw down their forces, and a face-saving (for all sides) peace treaty is the best way to do that.

they managed to pay for it just fine pre-1979(start of major US military aid) so I don't really see that as a issue.
 
Probably indefinitely. Egypt knows it cannot defeat Israel, so even without a peace there may not be any war.

However, the US would not have anywhere near the amount of influence with the Egyptian government as it did IOTL. This would complicate US diplomacy in the Middle East.

The real question is what kind of modus vivendi would exist between Israel and Egypt. To be honest, it might be very similar to OTL. A lot of the benefits the Israelis imagined they'd get from making peace with Egypt - normal trade relations for example - never materialized.

Questions that can't really be answered with certainty is whether this would help or hinder a more comprehensive peace later on, and what kind of leadership Egypt would provide to the Arab world.
 
The real question is what kind of modus vivendi would exist between Israel and Egypt. To be honest, it might be very similar to OTL. A lot of the benefits the Israelis imagined they'd get from making peace with Egypt - normal trade relations for example - never materialized.

my guess is that there wouldn't be a 5th war, Sadat didn't want it, Yom Kippur War was needed by the public, but after that he's not going for it, no peace he never (I think) gets shot, so maybe he's still in power.
 
they managed to pay for it just fine pre-1979(start of major US military aid) so I don't really see that as a issue.

That was before Israel went through a major economic crisis in the 80s, and before policing the Palestinian territories got expensive, and before the quagmire in Lebanon. Israel's costs are about to go up, and its revenues down.
 
That was before Israel went through a major economic crisis in the 80s, and before policing the Palestinian territories got expensive, and before the quagmire in Lebanon. Israel's costs are about to go up, and its revenues down.

to guess at the same 1980s with a POD in 1975 seems unlikely, can we say the 1983 Israel bank stock crisis would have happened with a POD 8 years out? and I think even so, they only need major forces in the Sinai if Egypt wants war, I don't think they would even if Peace fails, the Israelis never had large forced in the Sinai, from 1967-1973 or from 1974-1982
 
It all depends on how much money Israel continues to receive. If they can get someone, anyone, to pay the bills for their military, they can continue to hold on to the land for as long as they want. If they can't pay for their army, they'll need to draw down their forces, and a face-saving (for all sides) peace treaty is the best way to do that.

Holding the east bank of the Suez is no harder - and in fact, probably easier - than the current Israel/Egypt border.

I see Israel withdrawing to the Suez and holding the territory indefinitely and annexing it. The population in 1960 (the most recent census before 1967) is 45,000, and IIRC much of the non-Bedouin population fled after Israel's capture of the region*. IOTL, Israel actually began a fairly aggressive plan of settling the peninsula, which will no doubt continue here. Within a generation, I see the Sinai being considered as integral a part of Israel as the Negev. The oil will be developed and go to Israel (solely), and the tourist industry will develop much as IOTL.

I'm not sure if Israel will be able to hold the Suez canal - as of the ceasefire, they didn't hold Port Said. They'll probably withdraw to the east bank and consolidate. That's not gonna be good for world commerce - I expect the Suez to be closed for a while, though - probably at least a generation. At least Russian petrochemicals get a boost :D

No treaty with Egypt definitely handwaves the treaty with Jordan (the long running joke in Israel was that Jordan would be the second Arab nation to sign a treaty with Israel). Honestly, I have no idea what that does to the West Bank (which Jordan formally waived their right to in '94). The Jordanian economy is going to see a little bit of a hit relative to OTL from lost trade and tourism with Israel - but such a small hit it probably won't be noticeable.

Now, the West Bank and Gaza. This is going to be fun! Gaza's population in 1967 is 280,000; Israel's is 3.5 million (~2.5 million Jews, 1 million Arabs). With Gaza being entirely surrounded by Israel, I see Gaza getting an East-Jerusalem style annexation. By which I mean, most Gazans will be offered and reject citizenship, instead receiving permanent residence and holding out for the hope of liberation in a Palestinian state, while Israel chuckles, knowing they'll never give up the territory. Some terrorism will continue, but with Israel controlling all borders, it'll be hard.

It's possible but IMO unlikely that Israel will also annex the West Bank; honestly, I think the most likely thing is OTL's situation for most of that time. Jordan's probably still going to cede their claim to the region in the late 80s, though I suppose it's possible they'll keep claiming it. How the lack of Gaza is going to affect the Palestinian liberation movement...I have no idea. It might even make things better (historically, the PA's had some trouble relating to their responsibility over two non-adjacent pieces of land). The situation in Gaza is almost certainly improved, though, more like Israeli Arab standard than the current hell-hole it is now.

*Fled, was expelled, whatever; I don't want to get bogged down in that conversation as it's not particularly germane to the discussion
 
I'm not sure if Israel will be able to hold the Suez canal - as of the ceasefire, they didn't hold Port Said. They'll probably withdraw to the east bank and consolidate. That's not gonna be good for world commerce - I expect the Suez to be closed for a while, though - probably at least a generation. At least Russian petrochemicals get a boost :D

so no way you see them holding on to that African pocket they took in '73?
 
so no way you see them holding on to that African pocket they took in '73?

No. It's stupid for them to hold onto that pocket of flatland within artillery distance of Cairo. It would be one thing if they'd had the entire canal by the ceasefire, but with just the Great Bitter Lake...maybe if they thought they might carve a new canal, but that's...unlikely IMO. Plus, they're not going to want to hold onto Ismailia, whose population is significantly greater than the entire rest of their occupied region, combined.
 
No. It's stupid for them to hold onto that pocket of flatland within artillery distance of Cairo. It would be one thing if they'd had the entire canal by the ceasefire, but with just the Great Bitter Lake...maybe if they thought they might carve a new canal, but that's...unlikely IMO. Plus, they're not going to want to hold onto Ismailia, whose population is significantly greater than the entire rest of their occupied region, combined.

oh boy would that be a COOL tl, Israel re/opening a New Canal in the early to mid 1980s, unlikely sure, cool wanking though.
 

BlondieBC

Banned
so no way you see them holding on to that African pocket they took in '73?

At the time of the cease fire, Israel had punched a small whole through the Egyptian lines, and cutoff part of the Egyptian Army. For Israel to hold the canal line, they would need to finish the battle and win the battle. The large number of Egyptian casualties would introduce butterflies into the world. The "Arab Victory" in the 1973 war allowed Sadat to make peace. A loss prevents the peace process and likely results in the overthrow of Sadat. With Egyptian pride hurt yet again, another war is likely.
 
At the time of the cease fire, Israel had punched a small whole through the Egyptian lines, and cutoff part of the Egyptian Army. For Israel to hold the canal line, they would need to finish the battle and win the battle. The large number of Egyptian casualties would introduce butterflies into the world. The "Arab Victory" in the 1973 war allowed Sadat to make peace. A loss prevents the peace process and likely results in the overthrow of Sadat. With Egyptian pride hurt yet again, another war is likely.

you're likely right, I was thinking that both hold their cease fire lines, with the Egyptians still cut off, with the UN or something giving them the basics or Egypt with draws from their cut off Southern Pocket but holds their Northern one, but keeps it hush hush from their public

though as we've said its unlikely Israel would want to
 
Let's say that after the said maximum Israeli advance happened Egypt went on all or nothing and threatened to shell the Suez canal and destroy it in the attempt to force the international supporters of Israel to back off and cut off a part of the army. Would such a move succeed or would it simply be the case of shooting oneself in the foot?
 
Let's say that after the said maximum Israeli advance happened Egypt went on all or nothing and threatened to shell the Suez canal and destroy it in the attempt to force the international supporters of Israel to back off and cut off a part of the army. Would such a move succeed or would it simply be the case of shooting oneself in the foot?

my guess the latter, I don't see how it'd stop the US
 
What happens to the OPEC oil embargo in this scenario?
How do the major consumer countries circumvent it (other regions I know) ?
 
What happens to the OPEC oil embargo in this scenario?
How do the major consumer countries circumvent it (other regions I know) ?

The embargo lasted until March 1974 IOTL, far before any serious peace negotiations. It hurt OPEC way more than the intended victims.
 

Cook

Banned
Let's say that after the said maximum Israeli advance happened Egypt went on all or nothing and threatened to shell the Suez canal and destroy it in the attempt to force the international supporters of Israel to back off and cut off a part of the army. Would such a move succeed or would it simply be the case of shooting oneself in the foot?

There are no locks on the Suez Canal; basically it’s just a really large ditch linking the two seas and a couple of natural lakes, you can’t really destroy it. The canal was blocked for several years after both the 1956 and 1967 wars, ships deliberately scuttled in the canal to obstruct any traffic.
 


There are no locks on the Suez Canal; basically it’s just a really large ditch linking the two seas and a couple of natural lakes, you can’t really destroy it. The canal was blocked for several years after both the 1956 and 1967 wars, ships deliberately scuttled in the canal to obstruct any traffic.

I think you mean the 1967 war and 1973, that left 15 ships trapped in the canal (with their crews) for 8 years
 
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