No Easter Rising, United independent Ireland or United Kingdom?

(Accidentally posted this in pre-1900)

In the event that the Easter Rising is post poned or delayed such that there is no large scale military engagement in Ireland prior to the end of the war, either because the Germans change their mind on supporting or for some other reason, is the most likely event a free United Ireland (via a Canadian like process?), an Ireland similar as today, or it remaining as part of the UK.

If it remains as part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland, would there still be a desire for home rule and could that cause a federal UK? Or would they be sated like Wales and Scotland until recent times by little devolution.

Are there any time lines on this matter couldn't find anything by searching?
 

Deleted member 94680

The divided Ireland came about due to the Ulster protestants objecting to the idea of an United Ireland.

The lack of an Easter Rising doesn’t butterfly Edward Carson and the Ulster Covenant away.
 
I suspect the British try to introduce and implement conscription. If this happens you've moved the war of Independence forward by a year or two. The question is how the British react to a "stab in the back" and the impact of it on the wider war.

Edit: To expand a little, I imagine it has the potential to have a significant impact on the wider war in the context of the uboat campaign and Operation Michael but that the British response will be extraordinarily harsh regardless of whether they won or lose on the Western Front.
 
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1. Why is the Easter Rising delayed or stopped? There are too many physical force nationalists involved for this to be easy. Look at Connolly and the ICA for a start.

2. Irish independence, in some form, is inevitable. So is a gradual increase in the degree of independence. So no, Ireland will not remain part of the UK.

3. Home Rule was passed into law in 1914. The delay in implementation due to that business in Sarajevo and it's consequences was accepted, purely on an emergency basis. Further delays will not be tolerated by Irish Nationalists, and that includes Sinn Féin, the IPP and the others. Between them they received two-thirds of the votes and three-fourths of the seats in 1918. And that was with candidates in jail, active disruption by government forces and other problems.
Prevent the Easter Rising and then try to renege on Home Rule and the war of Independence starts, probably with greater popular support. And more weapons available.

4. Conscription was vehemently opposed in southern Ireland, by all factions. The Irish Anti-Conscription Committee was made up of IPP, Sinn Féin and Labour and enjoyed active RCC support; remember the bishops described conscription as "an oppressive and inhuman law which the Irish people have the right to resist by all the means consonant with the law of God".
Try and enforce conscription and the Easter Rising will be a picnic in comparison. Remember the entire IVF and ICA would be involved, as would various unions and workers' groups (I suggest you look at the events of 23APR1918). At a time when the UK faced major shortage of troops on the Western Front.
Lloyd-George demonstrated idiocy on the 1918 MSB, managing to unite Nationalists and Unionists by his blundering. Try and enforce conscription and Ireland erupts with Britain either losing control, or weakened (possibly seriously) in Europe.
 
4. Conscription was vehemently opposed in southern Ireland, by all factions. The Irish Anti-Conscription Committee was made up of IPP, Sinn Féin and Labour and enjoyed active RCC support; remember the bishops described conscription as "an oppressive and inhuman law which the Irish people have the right to resist by all the means consonant with the law of God".
Try and enforce conscription and the Easter Rising will be a picnic in comparison. Remember the entire IVF and ICA would be involved, as would various unions and workers' groups (I suggest you look at the events of 23APR1918). At a time when the UK faced major shortage of troops on the Western Front.
Lloyd-George demonstrated idiocy on the 1918 MSB, managing to unite Nationalists and Unionists by his blundering. Try and enforce conscription and Ireland erupts with Britain either losing control, or weakened (possibly seriously) in Europe.

As it was, the British Government was required to increase the Irish Garrison to 100,000 from 25,000 in the aftermath of the Military Service Bill. And this was without any attempt to actually conscript anybody.
 
As it was, the British Government was required to increase the Irish Garrison to 100,000 from 25,000 in the aftermath of the Military Service Bill. And this was without any attempt to actually conscript anybody.
Yeah, and just passive opposition. Not one of LG's smarter moves.
 
Yeah, and just passive opposition. Not one of LG's smarter moves.
However, the Irish and Ulster Volunteers both joint up, in very large numbers, mainly to be on Britain's good side at wars end.
Red mind had encouraged Irish men to join up, for this reason.
And I Think partition was being discussed in 1914, PE war.
I may be wrong, but anyone could see the Big Civil War that was et close to erupting.
 

Coulsdon Eagle

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There would still be an independent Ireland.

Timing and size would probably depend upon the amount of blood spilled.

Removing the Easter Rising, best case scenario is that Home Rule is introduced promptly after the end of the Great War with the partition much as in OTL, as that has worked pretty well in the sense that the death toll is in the low thousands over the last 100 years, and you lose the worst excesses of the immediate violence immediately post-war, and perhaps even the Irish Civil War is toned down. The Irish Free State, or TTL equivalent, would at some stage declare full independence. There's no way short of full military occupation that the Nationalists would remain part of a United Kingdom.
 
However, the Irish and Ulster Volunteers both joint up, in very large numbers, mainly to be on Britain's good side at wars end.

My paternal grandfather was one of those. Joined in 1914 and was invalided out in 1915 after being shot in both legs.
 
There would still be an independent Ireland.
Absolutely. This is inevitable. And indeed passed into law in 1914 in it's basic form.

Timing and size would probably depend upon the amount of blood spilled.
And could be staged (as happened historically).

Removing the Easter Rising, best case scenario is that Home Rule is introduced promptly after the end of the Great War with the partition much as in OTL,
Yes, however the attempt to explicitly tie the implementation of the 1914 act to the MSB was seen as an attempt by Britain to backtrack.

as that has worked pretty well in the sense that the death toll is in the low thousands over the last 100 years, and you lose the worst excesses of the immediate violence immediately post-war, and perhaps even the Irish Civil War is toned down. The Irish Free State, or TTL equivalent, would at some stage declare full independence. There's no way short of full military occupation that the Nationalists would remain part of a United Kingdom.
If there is prompt implementation of the GoI Act in full I think this would be accepted in a 1918 without the Easter Rising. However, as you point out, it would be a step along a path (probably running Home Rule - Dominion - Independent State - Republic).
 
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