No Easter rising-no Terrible Beauty is born

What if the 1916 rising had not taken place. Larkin had stayed in Ireland after the defat of the 1913 Transport workers strike and had persuaded Connoly not to let his citizens army initially formed to defend strikers against the Royal Irish Constabulary be used to support Nationalists some of whom as employers had stood shoulder to shoulder with Unionists during the dispute. Realising that the trafde union movement was weak outside Dublin, Belfast and maybe a few cities like Cork, Connolly is persuaded that any independent Ireland will mean little difference for the workers and will alienate a lot of the workforce in the North East ( i.e around Belfast). He would have been vindicated by the support shown to Franco by both the government and main opposition party in the late thirties and the failure of the Irish Labour party to be a major force despite providing the only parliamentary opposition in the civil war

With little support in the offings, the leaders decide to call it off for the time being and there is no violent supression.

However would the calm remain or maybe be delayed until 1918 when conscription came in in Ireland? Could home rule or Dominion status for an Ireland without some of the industrial north east have come about peacefully?

Supposing and uprising had occured in 1918 but it was lead largely by servicmen returning home from the trenches feeling betrayed on home rule with possibly Erskine Childers playing a prominent role (unlike Sir Riger Casement who recruited people from prisoners of war camps with German support, Childers had served Britain). Any UK government would have problems if it tried to suppress an uprising lead by ex-servicemen.

Is this plausible or was the 1916 uprising that gave berth to a terrible beauty according to W.B Yeats which was initially doomed to failure inevitable?
 
Out of the Frying Pan

What if the 1916 rising had not taken place. Larkin had stayed in Ireland after the defat of the 1913 Transport workers strike and had persuaded Connoly not to let his citizens army initially formed to defend strikers against the Royal Irish Constabulary be used to support Nationalists some of whom as employers had stood shoulder to shoulder with Unionists during the dispute. Realising that the trafde union movement was weak outside Dublin, Belfast and maybe a few cities like Cork, Connolly is persuaded that any independent Ireland will mean little difference for the workers and will alienate a lot of the workforce in the North East ( i.e around Belfast). He would have been vindicated by the support shown to Franco by both the government and main opposition party in the late thirties and the failure of the Irish Labour party to be a major force despite providing the only parliamentary opposition in the civil war

With little support in the offings, the leaders decide to call it off for the time being and there is no violent supression.

However would the calm remain or maybe be delayed until 1918 when conscription came in in Ireland? Could home rule or Dominion status for an Ireland without some of the industrial north east have come about peacefully?

Supposing and uprising had occured in 1918 but it was lead largely by servicmen returning home from the trenches feeling betrayed on home rule with possibly Erskine Childers playing a prominent role (unlike Sir Riger Casement who recruited people from prisoners of war camps with German support, Childers had served Britain). Any UK government would have problems if it tried to suppress an uprising lead by ex-servicemen.

Is this plausible or was the 1916 uprising that gave berth to a terrible beauty according to W.B Yeats which was initially doomed to failure inevitable?

A lot of people seem to overemphasize the role of Connolly. He was kidnapped at gunpoint by the IRB and given an offer he couldn't refuse. The real key player was Pearse. One way to eliminate the Easter Rising is to have the Germans decide against sending the Aud.

Another distortion is that the hardliners were not growing before the rising and the execution. The Irish Volunteers were growing before that but at a more incremental rate and absent it would continue to grow incrementally.

A late Apr 1918 Rising would be very bad timing for several reasons. One of them is Redmond died in March and his successor Dillon is less politically adept and less conciliatory about Ulster than his mentor. If the rebellion encompasses all of Ireland and not just Dublin (though even in OTL the rising was not completely in Dublin another common misconception) and after an initial open battle degenerates into guerilla warfare it comes at a very bad time as the German spring offensive is in full swing. This is not enough to let the Germans win but it could force Lloyd-George to open secret negotiations and we could end up with a somewhat softer Versailles. This is in turn would cause Unionists to complain that Britain was denied a total victory only because the Irish Catholics

"stabbed them in the back"
 
I'm far from an Irish history expert, but I think James Connoly's political views are best summed up in Black 47's song "James Connoly":
"Then Jem yells out, 'O citizens! This system is a curse!
An English boss is a monster- An Irish one even worse."

Hmmm...perhaps a later rising would be influenced by the Russian Revolution... and the new Irish symbol wouldn't be the Harp or Shamrock but the Plough...
 
One can't forget the Ulster Unionists and their impact on any situation.

We could thus end up in a situation much like 1912-1914 and the brink of total civil society breakdown between the Irish Volunteers, the Ulster Volunteer (or some similar organisation) and the forces of the British government (being the RIC and the British Army).
 
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