No Dzungar Genocide

CaliGuy

Banned
What if the Dzungar Genocide was prevented?

How would this affect Xinjiang, China in general, and the Qing Dynasty?

Any thoughts on this?
 
Would any group of the Dzungars still move and become the Kalmyks? Is China/Qing still going to conquer the place?
 
Would any group of the Dzungars still move and become the Kalmyks? Is China/Qing still going to conquer the place?
Your chronology is a little confused. The Kalmyks are a branch of the Oirats, not Zunghars (the Zunghars are a separate Oirat branch). They moved west more than a century before the annihilation of the Zunghars.

On OP's question, I can't really see why the Qing would choose not to eliminate the Zunghars. What we would now call genocide was the norm in 18th-century warfare throughout the world, and the Qing essentially had two choices:
  • Integrate the Zunghars into the Mongol banner system, even though this is expensive, the Zunghars are continuously unruly and could provoke the Khalkhas, and provide no benefits to the Qing empire
  • Kill them all
The latter option is a lot better in almost every way.

If you want the Zunghars to not be conquered by the Qing, I honestly think you need a POD in the era of Galdan Khan.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Your chronology is a little confused. The Kalmyks are a branch of the Oirats, not Zunghars (the Zunghars are a separate Oirat branch). They moved west more than a century before the annihilation of the Zunghars.

On OP's question, I can't really see why the Qing would choose not to eliminate the Zunghars. What we would now call genocide was the norm in 18th-century warfare throughout the world, and the Qing essentially had two choices:
  • Integrate the Zunghars into the Mongol banner system, even though this is expensive, the Zunghars are continuously unruly and could provoke the Khalkhas, and provide no benefits to the Qing empire
  • Kill them all
The latter option is a lot better in almost every way.

If you want the Zunghars to not be conquered by the Qing, I honestly think you need a POD in the era of Galdan Khan.
Why were the Mongols, Uyghurs, Tibetans, et cetera not subject to genocide under the Qing, though?
 
Inner Mongols: Historic allies.
Khalkha Mongols: Excellent auxiliaries, and when the Khalkha were conquered the Qing still needed more light cavalry troops to fight the Zunghars.

Too many of them, also not a serious military threat. Being punitive towards them could result in a military threat from the Afghan empire.

Not a military threat in any real way, and a light hand on Tibet was crucial for maintaining Mongol support.
 
Would they be able to expand into nowadays Eastern Kazakhstan, since didn't the Kazakhs have to fend off attacks from them? And what would their relations with the rest of the Mongol peoples be?

I wonder if the Qing still decline and the Russians still ascend to power (the latter is certainly very likely as of the 18th century) if the Russians might end up colonising the place at some point.
 
The Kalmyks are a branch of the Oirats, not Zunghars (the Zunghars are a separate Oirat branch)

Wrong. Zungar Khanate is the name of Oirat state which is established by choros branch of Oirats. Choros was main tribe of Left Wing Oirats, ence name of Zungar (Zuun means left, Gar means Wing/Hand).

Kalmyks were called torguud branch of Oirats.
 
Why were the Mongols, Uyghurs, Tibetans, et cetera not subject to genocide under the Qing, though?

Inner Mongolians were conquered before China and they manpower were needed for further conquest of Qing. Moreover many Inner Mongolian branch allied with Qing. !630's Inner Mongolian nobles did elect Abahai (Hong Taiji) as Great Khan of Mongolia.
Outer Mongolia submitted to Kangxi Emperor in 1688 when Galdan boshigt khan of Zungar invaded Outer Mongolia. So They are voluntarily became vassals (as it was understood initially).
Uyghurs at times was collection of city-states not united entity.
Tibetians were no position to fight and were eager to submit.
 
What if the Dzungar Genocide was prevented?
How would this affect Xinjiang, China in general, and the Qing Dynasty?
Any thoughts on this?

I always thought it was Qianlong's personal grudge against Zungar that resulted genocide rather than they being unruly. I think even without genocide Oirats most likely submitted and Outer Mongolians would have enabled this.
Zungars at the time was around 600,0 thousand. They concentrated on Northern Xinjiang, Ili basin and Eastern Kazakhstan (Kazakhs were minority then) and as far as OTL Altai Republic, Tuva. I don't think they would be merged with Outer Mongolia. Most likely they will constitute independent part of Qing Empire.
Interesting thing is what will happen when Qing is weakened? Population wise Zungars won't grow much. At best they will be some 700,0 thousand. If Qing as OTL will be struck by several revolts and Dungan Revolt occurs as OTL we might see Zungars Revolt too. It will be very hard for Qing to supress both Dungan and Zungar Revolts. If both Uygurs and Zungars work together they might stay de-facto independent. Then what if Outer Mongolia joins the revolt? What if after in 1911, Zungars and Outer Mongolia creates single entity. They might even might conquer some part of Inner Mongolia.
So basically in long term effect will be independent Uyghurs and much larger Mongolian state (Zungars + enlarged Outer Mongolia).

Another scenario is:
What if Russian Empire annexes Zungar from Qing Dynasty? OTL Russian Empire annexed some Western part of Qing.
So we have now whole different dynamics. After 1911, Outer Mongolia will declare independence as OTL. With many Zungar volunteers and more favorable Russian Empire policy could result more successful 1913's Outer Mongolian military push into Inner Mongolia.
If things goes as OTL, then we might see Soviets annexing Outer Mongolia around 1920's. (while it will be nominally independent as OTL Tuva). Then becames part of Soviets during 1930's. There will be created Mongolian SSR including Zungars, enlarged Outer Mongolia, Tuva, Buriats. Next question will Stalin annex Inner Mongolia after WWII?
Now after Soviets collapsed Mongolian SSR will become independent.
 
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