What if the Dzungar Genocide was prevented?
How would this affect Xinjiang, China in general, and the Qing Dynasty?
Any thoughts on this?
I always thought it was Qianlong's personal grudge against Zungar that resulted genocide rather than they being unruly. I think even without genocide Oirats most likely submitted and Outer Mongolians would have enabled this.
Zungars at the time was around 600,0 thousand. They concentrated on Northern Xinjiang, Ili basin and Eastern Kazakhstan (Kazakhs were minority then) and as far as OTL Altai Republic, Tuva. I don't think they would be merged with Outer Mongolia. Most likely they will constitute independent part of Qing Empire.
Interesting thing is what will happen when Qing is weakened? Population wise Zungars won't grow much. At best they will be some 700,0 thousand. If Qing as OTL will be struck by several revolts and Dungan Revolt occurs as OTL we might see Zungars Revolt too. It will be very hard for Qing to supress both Dungan and Zungar Revolts. If both Uygurs and Zungars work together they might stay de-facto independent. Then what if Outer Mongolia joins the revolt? What if after in 1911, Zungars and Outer Mongolia creates single entity. They might even might conquer some part of Inner Mongolia.
So basically in long term effect will be independent Uyghurs and much larger Mongolian state (Zungars + enlarged Outer Mongolia).
Another scenario is:
What if Russian Empire annexes Zungar from Qing Dynasty? OTL Russian Empire annexed some Western part of Qing.
So we have now whole different dynamics. After 1911, Outer Mongolia will declare independence as OTL. With many Zungar volunteers and more favorable Russian Empire policy could result more successful 1913's Outer Mongolian military push into Inner Mongolia.
If things goes as OTL, then we might see Soviets annexing Outer Mongolia around 1920's. (while it will be nominally independent as OTL Tuva). Then becames part of Soviets during 1930's. There will be created Mongolian SSR including Zungars, enlarged Outer Mongolia, Tuva, Buriats. Next question will Stalin annex Inner Mongolia after WWII?
Now after Soviets collapsed Mongolian SSR will become independent.