No Dutch Republic, effects on Portugal?

Thande

Thande

Donor
Thought I had: looking into the history of Portuguese exploration and trade, it seems that a lot of Portuguese ventures failed due to conflict with the Dutch, their great rivals for East India trade in the late 16th, 17th and early 18th centuries.

So let's just say there isn't a Dutch Revolt and all the Netherlands stay Spanish. Let's further suppose, to give the best results for Portugal, that there isn't a personal union with Spain up to 1640.

How much more successful would Portugal be in the Eastern Hemisphere without the Dutch?
 

Gonzaga

Thande said:
Thought I had: looking into the history of Portuguese exploration and trade, it seems that a lot of Portuguese ventures failed due to conflict with the Dutch, their great rivals for East India trade in the late 16th, 17th and early 18th centuries.

So let's just say there isn't a Dutch Revolt and all the Netherlands stay Spanish. Let's further suppose, to give the best results for Portugal, that there isn't a personal union with Spain up to 1640.

How much more successful would Portugal be in the Eastern Hemisphere without the Dutch?
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Some ideas:

Without the Dutch, the great rivals of Portugal would be the same of the beggining of early 16th: Spain and France. If Portugal manages to stay out of an union with Spain (it's pretty easy, actually, just make king Sebastian not being killed in Morocco), and with these enemies, the old alliance with England becomes a strong necessity.

I believe Spain wouldn't be so interested about direct outposts in India or Africa. Before the union they were very concerned about keeping Tordesillas (note that even the Phillipines are located in the "border" of the territory that should be Portuguese). With this policy, the Spanish had reasons to make the Portuguese not trying to expand in South America.

So, if Portugal has a kind of "peace" with Spain, probably the greater Portuguese enemy would be France. I wonder how successful could be a French colonial policy in the Eastern hemisphere so early (well, I really can't remember when the French started their presence in India:confused:).

Also, ITTL the Portuguese America would smaller. Without the Iberian Union, the "bandeirantes" surely wouldn't have official permission to go so far as they went OTL. Before 1580, the Portuguese authorities in the colonies used to do everything possible to discourage these adventures in the countryside, because they were afraid of start a conflict with Spain.
 

cerebus

I realize the populations of the Netherlands and Portugal were about the same 2 - 1.8 million and both were stretched to deal with what they had when faced with French, English or even Spanish opposition but I always understood that dutch resources, material, intellectual and ecconomic dwarfed the Portugese. The basis of this advantage was the dommination of the Baltic and north European carrying and financial trades, which were unavailable to Portugal no matter what happens to the dutch republic.

I think the result might leave portugal hanging on but without significant support from the British the Spanish, French and whoever takes over from the Dutch (Sweden?) will push them out at OTL. If the Brits do support Portugal then the only result I can see is economic dommination by the British.
 

Gonzaga

cerebus said:
I realize the populations of the Netherlands and Portugal were about the same 2 - 1.8 million and both were stretched to deal with what they had when faced with French, English or even Spanish opposition but I always understood that dutch resources, material, intellectual and ecconomic dwarfed the Portugese. The basis of this advantage was the dommination of the Baltic and north European carrying and financial trades, which were unavailable to Portugal no matter what happens to the dutch republic.

I think the result might leave portugal hanging on but without significant support from the British the Spanish, French and whoever takes over from the Dutch (Sweden?) will push them out at OTL. If the Brits do support Portugal then the only result I can see is economic dommination by the British.
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True, Portugal is likely to be a British sattelite, like in OTL. However, the dimension of this dommination depends on how are the relations between France and Spain. Portugal would have a dangerous game to play, trying to be in good terms with France and Spain, and at the same time keep the alliance with England.
 

Analytical Engine

Gonzaga said:
True, Portugal is likely to be a British sattelite, like in OTL. However, the dimension of this dommination depends on how are the relations between France and Spain. Portugal would have a dangerous game to play, trying to be in good terms with France and Spain, and at the same time keep the alliance with England.
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It is rather strange that the only ally we could regularly count on in those days was Catholic Portugal. :D:D:D
 

Gonzaga

Analytical Engine said:
It is rather strange that the only ally we could regularly count on in those days was Catholic Portugal. :D:D:D
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Well, you know, the Pope was only useful to the Portuguese to make Tordesillas...:D

Considering that Portugal even gave England a Catholic queen, I always was intrigued about what would happen in a situation where the English monarch could inherit the crown of Portugal too.
 

Gonzaga

Jammy said:
John of Gaunt :D
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Well, he claimed Castille, but maybe his grandson, Edward of Portugal... But I was thinking about something more tricky, like an Anglican monarch inheriting Portugal...

But, going back to the original topic, could really Sweden replace the Dutch in the colonial race? And if they do it, how would be their alliances? Or would they possible try a more independent path?

About the Portuguese, without spending money and resources fighting the Dutch, they probably would invest more on their Asian trade (maybe a greater presence in China and Japan?). And how about a Portuguese Cape of Good Hope?
 
Oddball

Oddball

Monthly Donor
LordInsane said:
No, I think Sweden had to small a population base to be any real colonial power.
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Actualy, IMHO the small population base is not what keeps Sweden from beeing a colonial power. Portugal has historical just a little larger population base.

The real problem lies in Swedens strategical location combined with their lack of naval tradition/focus.
 
Thande

Thande

Donor
Perhaps if Sweden-Norway came about instead of Denmark-Norway early on, we could see a reasonable trading empire. Not that that is the subject of this thread.
 
Oddball

Oddball

Monthly Donor
Analytical Engine said:
Can't we have an uber-Norway for once? :(
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No problem, but you will have to POD away the Black death, atleast on Norwegian territory :)

Prior to BD we were on more or less equal footing with Denmark and Sweden, but after it was just a question to whom of those to we should belong... :(
 

Analytical Engine

Oddball said:
No problem, but you will have to POD away the Black death, atleast on Norwegian territory :)

Prior to BD we were on more or less equal footing with Denmark and Sweden, but after it was just a question to whom of those to we should belong... :(
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Alas poor Norway.
My heart cries for thee. :(
 

cerebus

Sorry Everybody I am new here. I had no idea mentioning Sweden casually as a possible replacement for the Dutch in the Baltic would produce such a tangled thread.

Thinking about it Sweden is an unlikely replacement for the Dutch (Except in EUII !) adn the trade would probably fall to the English. Like they need any more help to become a massive colonial power.:)
 

Analytical Engine

cerebus said:
Sorry Everybody I am new here. I had no idea mentioning Sweden casually as a possible replacement for the Dutch in the Baltic would produce such a tangled thread.
Click to expand...

Such is AH.com. :p

Thinking about it Sweden is an unlikely replacement for the Dutch (Except in EUII !) and the trade would probably fall to the English. Like they need any more help to become a massive colonial power.:)
Click to expand...

:D
 
Oddball

Oddball

Monthly Donor
cerebus said:
Sorry Everybody I am new here. I had no idea mentioning Sweden casually as a possible replacement for the Dutch in the Baltic would produce such a tangled thread.

Thinking about it Sweden is an unlikely replacement for the Dutch (Except in EUII !) adn the trade would probably fall to the English. Like they need any more help to become a massive colonial power.:)
Click to expand...

You think this is tangled :eek::D

Oh, you have mutch to learn about AH.com :cool::D
 

Gonzaga

Some more ideas about the original subject.

- If Portugal doesn't join the Iberian Union, then probably the Anglo-Portuguese alliance is still working. Then, the English probably wouldn't help the Persians to take Ormus from the Portuguese in 1622. Maybe we could see a longer Portuguese presence in the Persian Gulf.

- In South America, the Portuguese wouldn't expand so much towards west, because they wouldn't want to have conflicts with Spain (a conflict they knew they couldn't win). Without having to fight against the Dutch in Pernambuco, they are free to investigate the area of São Francisco River and the hills of Minas Gerais, that were entirely within the Portuguese territory according Tordesillas. It could lead to an earlier discovery of gold, that maybe could be used to improve the Portuguese outposts in the East too.

- The Portuguese were much more concerned about conversions than the Dutch. Probably, in the long run, we could see more religious conflicts in the Portuguese controlled areas.

- Without the Dutch, would the Japanese completely stop the contact with the West, or could the wealthier Portuguese succesfully in have more influence in Japan?
 
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