No Con-Lib coalition agreement what would have happened? AH challenge

Britain has now had 7 months of coalition government following the inconclusive general election result. Some people have argued that the Liberal Democrats had no alternative to enter into a coalition but it wasn’t the only possible scenario given the result. The challenge I am posing is what would have happened if there was no agreement.

There are some parameters to follow in deciding the scenario. Firstly the general election result must be the same so there would be no difference in the strengths of the various parties. Secondly the scenarios have to be plausible which probably rules out a Rainbow coalition with a slender majority and reliant on an agreed programme by four of five parties; the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, SNP and Plaid Cymru. A minority government however is plausible by either of the two major parties although more likely with one than the other.

The protocol of Gordon Brown having the right to attempt to from a government has to be followed before the Queen asks anyone else. However any government not only needs to command the support of the House of Commons but also needs to demonstrate that it requires a majority to government before a request to grant dissolution is allowed.

Apart from this any scenario has to consider how long a government can last and what issues it can successfully trigger a defeat in the House of Commons on that is likely to result in winning a resultant election. Any government has to decide on; how to deal with the financial crisis and how to react to the Browne report on university funding. Also any scenario needs to take into account how the opposition parties are likely to react to whatever policies a minority government proposes.

Please don’t claim there was no alternative even if coalition might have been the least worse option.Also this thread is not about the future of the Liberal Democrats but what would have happened, although the former is part of the latter
 
The mathematics of the Rainbow Coalition couldn't work without including the DUP, which wouldn't be acceptable to the majority of MP's in said coalition. Labour and the SNP also pretty much despise each other so that's questionable as well.

Cameron might not mind going into coalition with the DUP but that's also arguable and even then he'd need to rely on either the SNP or PC, neither party would help them.

The only feasible options other than coalition seem to be either confidence and supply or a Tory minority Govenrment, neither of which would last long.
 
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Thande

Donor
The inly feasible options other than coalition seem to be either confidence and supply or a Tory minority Govenrment, neither of which would last long.

This.

Re your middle point, there were rumours in the days before the election that Cameron was talking to the DUP in the hope that the Tories would get just a few seats short of a majority and would get them to sit on the government benches in exchange for Powell-esque sweeteners. But of course the Tories fell too short for that.
 
Re your middle point, there were rumours in the days before the election that Cameron was talking to the DUP in the hope that the Tories would get just a few seats short of a majority and would get them to sit on the government benches in exchange for Powell-esque sweeteners. But of course the Tories fell too short for that.

Now there's an interesting scenario. Would the DUP be happy with just influence or would they only accept Nigel Dodds getting the Northern Ireland office?

Also I could see the Tories getting into trouble holding hands with some rather controversial figures.
 
Another election in 6 months with the LibDems being squeezed enough to deliver a Tory majority.

Seconded. The Lib Dems would be blamed for another election, and, furthermore, the European debt problem could well have spread to Britain over the summer in the absence of a strong Government. Labour could well lose more seats, since the Tory minority will still be in the window in which it can blame Labour for economic trouble. Will the party have had time for a leadership election before a September election?

I'd guess a Conservative majority of about fifteen results, with the Lib Dems hammered and Labour losing a few more seats.
 
The mathematics of the Rainbow Coalition couldn't work without including the DUP, which wouldn't be acceptable to the majority of MP's in said coalition. Labour and the SNP also pretty much despise each other so that's questionable as well.

Following the election Alex Salmond expressed the SNPs willingness to participate in a coalition. And since he ruled out a coalition with the Tories, I would assume the SNP would join Labour in coalition or simply offer parliamentary support.

Also the mathematics would work. Sinn Fein (abstensionist), with 5 seats reduces the required majority to 623. Labour, the Liberal Democrats with direct coalition support or simple parliamentary support from the SNP and Plaid Cymru the government would have 624 seats to the 621 of the opposition.

Still, this would only leave the government with a majority of 3 and judging by how many Lib Dems voted against raising tuition fees, this tiny majority would probably lead to another election by the end of the year.
 
Following the election Alex Salmond expressed the SNPs willingness to participate in a coalition. And since he ruled out a coalition with the Tories, I would assume the SNP would join Labour in coalition or simply offer parliamentary support.

You're probbaly right, I wouldn't say for certain though.

Also the mathematics would work. Sinn Fein (abstensionist), with 5 seats reduces the required majority to 623. Labour, the Liberal Democrats with direct coalition support or simple parliamentary support from the SNP and Plaid Cymru the government would have 624 seats to the 621 of the opposition.

Discounting the Speaker and Sinn Fein you would need 324 seats for a majority of 2, Labour, the Lib Dems, the SDLP, Caroline Lucas and the Nationalists combined would have 327 seats, so you're right it could feasibly work.

This is probbaly why I got a C in Higher maths. :eek:

Still, this would only leave the government with a majority of 3 and judging by how many Lib Dems voted against raising tuition fees, this tiny majority would probably lead to another election by the end of the year.

Would it not be a majority of 8? But yes, this Government could only exist as a progressive caretaker for a few months.
 
For the Tories the best option is a Lib-Lab coalition that falls within a few months. the Liberals are blamed and Labour grows ever more toxic. After that not even Cameron could lose an election.
 
The problem with the 'rainbow' coalition is as follows:

Everyone, Tory and Labour alike, agreed that there would need to be some degree of budget cuts (mainly differing on how much and when). We can assume that Labour probably wouldn't be out to cut as much anyway, but the rainbow coalition means that essentially, Scotland and Wales are going to get a much lighter hand, while England will need higher cuts to compensate. If the Lib Dems capitolise on the position they're in by working in concert with SNP and PC, then they'll probably reduce cuts elsewhere, to the point where the cuts themselves are effectively useles.

There's just too many differing viewpoints to present a united front.
 
For the Tories the best option is a Lib-Lab coalition that falls within a few months. the Liberals are blamed and Labour grows ever more toxic. After that not even Cameron could lose an election.

Agree.

The problem with the 'Progressive' Coalition idea anyway was Gordon Brown, Clegg openly said the then-PM was the biggest roadblock to a Lib-Lab alliance and Brown was both constitutionally empowered and personally determined to form a new ministry. So basically you end up with what we got.

A maginificent palace coup would be in order from the PLP to 'off' Brown for it to go forward, but frankly given the precarious nature of such a coalition I think Cabinet wouldn't see it as strategically worth it. Personally I think this IS what happened behind closed doors. The likes of David Miliband would not be keen on a dangerous battle to secure a poisoned chalice.
 
Would it not be a majority of 8? But yes, this Government could only exist as a progressive caretaker for a few months.

Erm not sure where you're getting the eight from. My number of 3 was just Labour, Liberal Democrat, SNP and Plaid Cyrmu.

If all parties left of centre are added I get 328 seats (DUP not included) and this would be a notional majority of 11 (Sinn Fein not included in the opposition). Still I doubt whether the SDLP (favours reunification of Ireland) would join a progressive unionist coalition.
 
Captain Clegg was willing to form a coalition with either the Tories or Labour, but Labour wasn't interested. Even if they had been, they still wouldn't have had enough seats between them to form a working government.

The only realistic scenario I can think of is that Cammo heads a minority government but isn't able to achieve much. He might still be able to get the ID card scheme scrapped, but putting together a coherent economic policy and getting it approved by the Commons is almost impossible. Result: sometime in 2010 there's a second General Election, with the possibility that the Tories scrape through with a small but workable majority. Smaller parties do even worse than they did in May 2010, due to activist fatigue and lack of funds.
 
Still I doubt whether the SDLP (favours reunification of Ireland) would join a progressive unionist coalition.

Well there are already Scottish and Welsh nationalists in the Unionist coaliiton and it hasn't stopped Plaid Cymru and Labour going into coalition in Wales.

Also, Labour and the SDLP have exceptional relations to the point where it's widely believed there's an unspoken electoral alliance.
 
The Rainbow Coalition would have been a whips' worst nightmare - far too difficult to just get the basics through. Controversial bills including possible cuts? Fat chance.
By the way - no Coalition would make me a very happy bunny. I hate the bloody Tories. Makes me ill being in bed with the bastards.
 
Coming back to the original question:

State of the parties on the morning of 7th May 2010 (even though not all counts are in - ALL votes are cast so the results of the afternoon are fixed in stone even though after the POD):

CON 307; LAB 258; LibDem 57; DUP 8; SNP 6; Sinn Fein 5; Plaid 3; SDLP 3; Green 1; Alliance 1; Independent 1; Speaker 1.

Technical majority needed: 326
Actual majority needed: 323 (650 - 1 speaker - 5 Sinn Fein = 644 divided by 2 = 322)
Personal working majority needs: 330 (to give a working majority of about 16, enough to survive a full five years)

Reasonable coalition prospects (by this, I mean form a government that can last FIVE years, even taking by-election defeats into account):
Conservative + Lib Dem = OTL so ignored
Labour+Lib Dem+SNP+Plaid+SDLP+Green+Alliance+Independent (Sylvia Hermon) = 330 (but would Sylvia Herman agree to this?)

Nothing else 'reasonable' could work, and even the last one requires 8!! different parties

Potential minority govts that could work:
Conservative + DUP = 315
Labour+Lib Dem+SDLP+Green+Alliance = 320

Neither of the last two last very long. The first probably dissolves voluntarily in October 2010 to fight a second election.
The second gets constantly hammered by votes of confidence thrown at it by the Conservatives until it either loses one, or else one party in the agreement can't go with something and then it folds. I can't see the latter lasting past October.

Personally, if the Lib Dems didn't agree to full coalition, even if they agreed to Confidence and Supply, I'd still expect a new election within the year.
 
Labour+Lib Dem+SNP+Plaid+SDLP+Green+Alliance+Independent (Sylvia Hermon) = 330 (but would Sylvia Herman agree to this?)

Well generally Lady Hermon voted with the Labour government when she was a UUP MP (for anti-terror legislation and ID cards, for repealing Section 28 etc.), so my guess would be that she'd at least continue to vote in line with them (whether she'd officially become part of the coalition isn't exactly clear, but it's always a possibility).
 
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