No Communist occupation of south China- how does Franco-Viet Minh struggle play out then?

raharris1973

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On the one hand, the Viet Minh lack Chinese Communist territory to serve as a strategic rear. Moving especially heavy weapons, aid and advisors to Viet Minh area becomes much harder for the Chinese Communists and Soviets than it was in OTL.

On the other hand, the appearance of Communist China on the border of Indochina motivated a much larger amount of American aid being given to French forces and Indochinese proxy forces aligned to them. Also, the Viet Minh had nationwide political support and networks going back to 1945, long before the Chinese Communists were present on the China-Indochina border. The Viet Minh also had territorial control over large parts of the Vietnamese countryside in the early part of the war with France from 1945-1949, before Chinese Communists showed up at the border.

And, the French, despite having what they considered a military victory in the field in Algeria and without suffering a Dien Bien Phu style defeat, still was compelled to withdraw from Algeria.

All that said, how is the ultimate settlement of Franco-Viet Minh effected by a lack of contiguity with a Communist state, if at all. For example, are the territorial and election deals or the timing of an armistice, changed, and if so, how?
 
Well, I thought of the left-wing faction of the KMT controlling the territories south of Huai and Yangtze rivers (South China), but that's another thread.
 
Okay if there is no fall of China by some act of God, you could see a more relaxed attitude from the U.S who wouldn't be too keen of France's imperialism. The thing is the Viet Minh i think was more umbrella term aside from just Communists if they can get enough sympathy to make them seem like the good guys. No Second Indochina War would leave Vietnam in a stronger position, If were are assuming Ho Chi Minh takes power, then there won't be any North-First South-First faction struggles, and no need for them to play favorites with either Beijing or Moscow.

It could also torpedo the Domino Theory, it's later revision, and lead to a more contained Cold War.
 

raharris1973

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BBadolato -

About when does France yield control of Indochina in the ATL and to what regime or regimes do they yield it to? Do the French yield all of Indochina at once?
 
I would assume the French could win, at least strategically. The Vietminh couldn't win a pitched battle, or capture a city, without Sino-Soviet armaments. So the ball would be in France's corner. Maybe the public lose the win to fight. Maybe Algeria becomes the priority. Maybe the French initiate their own 'Vietnamization' and create at least a fairly viable state.
 
I suppose it depends what the relations between the, I'm assuming KMT, government that controls at least southern China, and possibly those in charge of the border provinces, and France are. If the central government decides that they'd like to see the French gone, either for virtuous reasons or to become the regional strongman, or is still having to deal with the Communists in a split China that might keep them occupied enough for some private Chinese citizens to do a big of free market arms trading with Vietnam Minh then there might still be just enough arms going in to the country for them to win, if not it's a longer slog fighting a conventional guerilla war.
 
Considering that the KMT was either fighting or had just finished fighting a war with Mao and his communists the odds are that they would not want a communist state on their southern border. So I would expect no support for Ho Chi Minh and his communists. I would expect that Chiang Kai-shek would be in favor of a noncommunist replacement for Ho Chi Minh and he would be willing to wait a while for that to happen. As for weapons crossing the border they would be gun runners and the KMT would be looking for them.
 
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