No Communism in Russia/Eastern Europe

Blue

Banned
If the Bolsheviks didn´t succeed and were crushed by the White armies how would this have affected the interwar period, WW2 and the second half of the 20th century?

I am assuming that with the Bolsheviks defeated the new form of government would be:

1. Most likely a military dictatorship like in Poland
2. A monarchy with a Tsar
3. The least likely possibilty - Democracy
 

Cook

Banned
If the Bolsheviks didn´t succeed and were crushed by the White armies how would this have affected the interwar period, WW2 and the second half of the 20th century?

I am assuming that with the Bolsheviks defeated the new form of government would be:

1. Most likely a military dictatorship like in Poland
2. A monarchy with a Tsar
3. The least likely possibilty - Democracy

The Tsar fell in February 1917, Lenin didn’t even return to Russia until April 1917.

Lenin and the Bolsheviks did not topple the Tsar in the October Revolution, they toppled the Provisional government of the Russian Republic led by Alexander Kerensky; a democratically elected government and Duma (parliament).
 
He didn't say they did, though, and if the Whites had taken over they weren't going to bring back the republic: they blamed it for the disaster. They were going to set up some sort of rather authoritarian state, though it would have been quite different from the old regime and probably had somewhat less impotent representative bodies, and it might well have been a constitutional monarchy of some sort.
 
The Tsar fell in February 1917, Lenin didn’t even return to Russia until April 1917.

Lenin and the Bolsheviks did not topple the Tsar in the October Revolution, they toppled the Provisional government of the Russian Republic led by Alexander Kerensky; a democratically elected government and Duma (parliament).
Oh, is this a DBWI? In what alternate universe was the provisional government democratically elected?
 
Oh, is this a DBWI? In what alternate universe was the provisional government democratically elected?


hehe, i thought the same...

the russians will be doomed - a socialist/communist revolution can´t be avoided... not in an after 1900-plot

for that you have to go to 1860-70,.... and you need huge changes to avoid it

if lenin is dead, another guy will do it.... you need longtime reforms (so i say start in 1868), with them this will have consequences in europe, too.
 
Socialist parties will be much more successful in the West (there's no Zinoviev letter to sabotage the first Labour government, for instance, and I would think socialism isn't delegitimised in the United States).

A restored Tsarist Russia is going to be a major threat to peace, perhaps trying to deal with its internal strife and economic troubles by expanding into Eastern Europe in the late-1930s.
 
Socialist parties will be much more successful in the West (there's no Zinoviev letter to sabotage the first Labour government, for instance, and I would think socialism isn't delegitimised in the United States).

Probably, provided that the victorious whites don't seek to demonize all socialist/left wing element to excuse their very likely crack-down and repression. [While better than OTL Russia it would still be very repressive I suspect].

A restored Tsarist Russia is going to be a major threat to peace, perhaps trying to deal with its internal strife and economic troubles by expanding into Eastern Europe in the late-1930s.

I don't know. It's going to be weak enough due to uncertain control that it's unlikely to pose a major threat or be able to industrialise as rapidly as a democratic or even a communist Russia.

The other big bonus is that while it will probably be mistrusted, especially if deeply repressive, it will not be as much a pariah as OTL USSR. Hence there will be a relatively stable power east of Germany that will act as a counter to a German military revival. This will:
a) Reassure France, which won't need to be as fixated on the need to keep Germany weak.
b) Deny the Nazis [or similar groups] the target of a Soviet threat to the east.
c) There is a Russian state that has a vested interest to block a powerful German military state, especially one with a rabid racial hated of Slavs.

Hence there is a much greater chance of avoiding a 2nd great war.

Steve
 
Probably, provided that the victorious whites don't seek to demonize all socialist/left wing element to excuse their very likely crack-down and repression. [While better than OTL Russia it would still be very repressive I suspect].

I think it would be extremely repressive - look at what happened in Hungary. But I don't think Russian propaganda would tarnish the image of leftists in the West. There might be concerns about insurrectionists seeking refuge in the West, but they'd been doing that for decades by then. There might also be an issue with Tsarist Russia conducting espionage and subservsion operations against socialist governments in the West.

I can see the counter-arguments regarding European politics. And similarly, there's no animus to appease fascism as a bulwark against the Soviets. But a renewed imperialist Russia is going to be belligerent and paranoid.
 
He didn't say they did, though, and if the Whites had taken over they weren't going to bring back the republic: they blamed it for the disaster. They were going to set up some sort of rather authoritarian state, though it would have been quite different from the old regime and probably had somewhat less impotent representative bodies, and it might well have been a constitutional monarchy of some sort.

At least some of the White generals seemed particularly obsessed with a "Constituent Assembly" that would need to approve/implement any and all social changes. This was to their cost re: land reform, the states that became independent of the Soviet Union, etc.

I think the generals thought the CA would bring back the monarchy.
 
Socialist parties will be much more successful in the West (there's no Zinoviev letter to sabotage the first Labour government, for instance, and I would think socialism isn't delegitimised in the United States).
In the longer run maybe, but Western governments can still use the Bolshevik bogeyman to their advantage in the early - mid 20s, especially once further details of the Red Terror seep out - although it would be internal Bolshevism rather than Lenin and co that would be the focus for paranoia. After that time the menace of 'international Communism' would be rather less potent.

BTW the Zinoviev letter, while being a major contributory factor to the scope of the Conservative victory in 1924, probably didn't alter the overall outcome. We would have seen a larger Liberal presence and fewer Conservatives in the Commons, but Baldwin would probably still command a majority. Of course given that the Labour government fell over a mixture of 'loans to Bolshevik murderers' and their failure to prosecute the editor of the Daily Worker for incitement to mutiny, the atmosphere of any 1924 election would be rather different.
 
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