NO cold war and the European economy

WI the USSR had taken a different tack after 1941 (presumably Stalin dying is more likey than his having had a personality transplant.)

Some kind of deal is made over Poland.

The Soviet Union remains quite influentual in Eastern Europe.

If the USA does not feel itself to be at threat I am guessing there would be nothing like the Marshal plane. Europe is still devastated by the War.

How long does it take us (Europeans) to recover?
 

ninebucks

Banned
Never.

Without the Marshall Plan Europe will not be able to keep up with the rest of the world. The gap in incomes between the US and Europe will expand hugely, and new gaps will grow between Europe and the rest of the world. The East Asian economic miracles will be much sooner, and even in the former colonies, without powerful Europeans to enforce debilitating trade relationships, incomes will start to grow. Places like North Africa and the Middle East will approach OTL European standards.

Meanwhile, throughout Europe there is a virulant hatred of the US. Who will be seen as having used the War as a way to destroy Europe and pave the way for their ascendant hegemony. All of Europe will voluntarily offer itself up for patronage from the USSR, in those nations where democracy remains, it will be shallow, with the political party with the closest Kremlin ties winning every time. Politicians will ride the tides of desperation, classicism and xenophobia to stay in power, while syphoning off anything of worth from the shattered economies.

With no external allies, the USA loses the pseudo-Cold War by the 21st Century.
 
I wouldn't be so dystopic as that, but I think there's a real danger that without the US influence, Bretton Woods never gets off the ground, and protectionism remains in play. The EU is aborted, and you get a poorer Europe.

Hrm.
 

Hnau

Banned
Wikipedia said:
It should be noted that when the Marshall Plan was initiated, the wartime alliances were still somewhat intact and the Cold War had not yet truly begun, and for most of those who developed the Marshall Plan, fear of the Soviet Union was not the overriding concern it would be in later years.

If the USSR does not establish the Iron Curtain, then there is the possibility of agriculture in Eastern Europe being re-developed fast enough to help out the rest of Europe. Traditionally, food from Eastern Europe was sent to Western Europe, where manufacturing centers produced industrial goods for the East.

The Marshall Plan helped spread American culture as well: tens of thousands of Hollywood-produced movies were sent over the Pond as a pre-condition for Marshall Aide, to be played on a regular basis at theaters. Withouy the Marshall Plan, the Europeans might experience a backlash against American ideas, its true, though I don't think they'll resent the USA... we did beat back the Nazis, at the very least... but there will be a lot more influence to establish distinct European cultures instead of being amalgamated into "the West" or into the Soviet Republics.
 
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