A lot of people have heard about how in the 800's AD Maya civilization took a turn for the worse and collapsed, leaving the largest kingdoms and the entire Maya heartland in ruin. What less people are aware of is that this happened only shortly after something similar happened throughout the rest of Mesoamerica. Most notably with Teotihuacan and its entire empire pretty much disappearing. Now, what if it hadn't? And nor did the Maya and all the other states that went as well. There are various supposed reasons for the collapse, so lets assume most of them can be averted or dealt with. One problem was population. The Maya area had upwards of 10 million people, which is a very large number for anyone at that time, let alone in such a relatively small area with thin soil. They did come up with ways to try and sustain their massive population with many various agricultural techniques that yielded rich rewards, but it might've been too late and in any case it didn't help much when a massive drought of biblical proportions struck. But let's say we handwave the drought away or assume they put even more effort into developing the land (in a less harmful way) and did it earlier.
This leads us to problem #2, political instability. One of the reasons they weren't able to sustain such a large population even with advanced and intensive agriculture was the instability of the region and constant warfare that increased in intensity around this time. One way to avert this would be to avert the creation of the Petexbatun polity that was centered around the ruins of Dos Pilas. In addition to that, it might be necessary to reduce some of the dramatic success of Tikal against Calakmul, Calakmul's large hegemonical empire probably kept a lot of order before they were drastically weakened by some of Tikal's victories. 2 large competing superpowers is better than 1 weakened superpower and a massive number of kingdoms that hate eachother and are constantly fighting to the death. However, this doesn't explain what happened to Teotihuacan, which leads me to point #3, deforestation.
This was previously the number one theory, though I suspect it wasn't quite as much of a factor as the other and was a result of them rather than a cause. But nevertheless, the Maya used up trees at a high rate, yet they were smart enough to see that getting rid of the all the forests was a very bad idea, so they kept preserves and had limits. Teotihuacan however seems not to have had limits to their usage of the forest, and so deforestation caused a general lack of useful resources and soil erosion. This in addition to droughts and famine (likely caused by erosion) led to some massive unrest that possibly undermined the empire. To help avoid all this and a collapse of the entire city, it might be necessary to weaken the empire though. Let's say some setbacks result in the rulers of Teotihuacan losing prestige and influence, therefore the empire in general is decentralized, loses some territory on the Maya frontier, and other cities like Cholula, Cantona, Cacaxtla, and the like gain some influence, enough that they become major players in a weakened empire that still pays their respects to the symbolic capital of Teotihuacan. Meanwhile people leave and start settling the Valley of Mexico, perhaps even establishing chinampas and a city on the Lake of Mexico several centuries early. Similarly, people in the Maya region start settling areas like Honduras and El Salvador in large numbers, establishing colonies for lack of a better term.
So, this leaves us at the time the Maya were supposed to collapse IOTL with several large empires dotting the face of Mesoamerica and the civilizations themselves growing, expanding the borders of what we'd consider to be the region further south and east into Central America. Teotihuacan, even if it isn't quite the imperial power of the past, still remains a prestigious city and still larger than any other. Their rulers carry weight, albeit not the military strength they used to have, yet they can still control what goes on in the heartland of Central Mexico. They have new cities springing up a short distance away in what would IOTL be known as the Valley of Mexico. These cities provide lots of crops from the chinampas and terraces surrounded the Lake of Mexico. Other cities in the region like Cholula and Cantona vie for practical dominance, perhaps while still claiming to be vassals of Teotihuacan. Maya influence in the region is notable, with Maya artisans and migrants setting up many barrios in Mexican cities. Epi-Olmec writing is spreading in use in the region, with Teotihuacano pictographs (the antecedent of Aztec pictographs) having some symbolical importance but declining in use in favor of more practical true writing. The Zapotecs in Oaxaca are very little changed from OTL, their Mixtec underlings in the valleys below their fastnesses are rising in power and growing resentful of dominance from Monte Alban just like OTL, but since Monte Alban still has connections in Mexico, they don't sit on the verge of being utterly destroyed. It's not a golden age, but the Classic Era kingdoms and cities of Mexico remain in existence and are continuing to advance and grow at a steady pace instead of hectic rises and falls.
Meanwhile, to the east, the Maya are in a complex situation. There are now several large kingdoms that have been growing in power at the expense of smaller polities that have been forced to submit or fall. It is survival of the fittest. Despite this seemingly bleak statement, the situation is actually more peaceful than OTL. Less petty conflicts interrupt the cycle of farming or the usual trade routes. People can prosper in relative peace, though there are still occasional wars for dominance of specific regions that are as violent as any Maya conflict. Nevertheless, while the political situation centralizes with more large kingdoms and empires forming, actual kingdoms are decentralizing. In many places the local ruler falls from supreme importance, and while still retaining control, the council houses become a staple of politics that sometimes keep kings in check. There are less massive, monumental building projects that consume needless amounts of resources. And as their people spread to create settlements in Honduras away from the dense clutter of the Peten and Yucatan, traders go further than ever before. Eventually they go far enough to meet traders venturing from far off South American empires. They receive new animals and crops, in exchange for giving jade and crops like maize and tobacco. The South Americans were particularly interested by the writing the Maya used.
So with a Mesoamerican world like this forming around 8-900 AD, what are your thoughts on how they might develop and what might the period of contact look with a wildly different civilization that evolves from this situation?
This leads us to problem #2, political instability. One of the reasons they weren't able to sustain such a large population even with advanced and intensive agriculture was the instability of the region and constant warfare that increased in intensity around this time. One way to avert this would be to avert the creation of the Petexbatun polity that was centered around the ruins of Dos Pilas. In addition to that, it might be necessary to reduce some of the dramatic success of Tikal against Calakmul, Calakmul's large hegemonical empire probably kept a lot of order before they were drastically weakened by some of Tikal's victories. 2 large competing superpowers is better than 1 weakened superpower and a massive number of kingdoms that hate eachother and are constantly fighting to the death. However, this doesn't explain what happened to Teotihuacan, which leads me to point #3, deforestation.
This was previously the number one theory, though I suspect it wasn't quite as much of a factor as the other and was a result of them rather than a cause. But nevertheless, the Maya used up trees at a high rate, yet they were smart enough to see that getting rid of the all the forests was a very bad idea, so they kept preserves and had limits. Teotihuacan however seems not to have had limits to their usage of the forest, and so deforestation caused a general lack of useful resources and soil erosion. This in addition to droughts and famine (likely caused by erosion) led to some massive unrest that possibly undermined the empire. To help avoid all this and a collapse of the entire city, it might be necessary to weaken the empire though. Let's say some setbacks result in the rulers of Teotihuacan losing prestige and influence, therefore the empire in general is decentralized, loses some territory on the Maya frontier, and other cities like Cholula, Cantona, Cacaxtla, and the like gain some influence, enough that they become major players in a weakened empire that still pays their respects to the symbolic capital of Teotihuacan. Meanwhile people leave and start settling the Valley of Mexico, perhaps even establishing chinampas and a city on the Lake of Mexico several centuries early. Similarly, people in the Maya region start settling areas like Honduras and El Salvador in large numbers, establishing colonies for lack of a better term.
So, this leaves us at the time the Maya were supposed to collapse IOTL with several large empires dotting the face of Mesoamerica and the civilizations themselves growing, expanding the borders of what we'd consider to be the region further south and east into Central America. Teotihuacan, even if it isn't quite the imperial power of the past, still remains a prestigious city and still larger than any other. Their rulers carry weight, albeit not the military strength they used to have, yet they can still control what goes on in the heartland of Central Mexico. They have new cities springing up a short distance away in what would IOTL be known as the Valley of Mexico. These cities provide lots of crops from the chinampas and terraces surrounded the Lake of Mexico. Other cities in the region like Cholula and Cantona vie for practical dominance, perhaps while still claiming to be vassals of Teotihuacan. Maya influence in the region is notable, with Maya artisans and migrants setting up many barrios in Mexican cities. Epi-Olmec writing is spreading in use in the region, with Teotihuacano pictographs (the antecedent of Aztec pictographs) having some symbolical importance but declining in use in favor of more practical true writing. The Zapotecs in Oaxaca are very little changed from OTL, their Mixtec underlings in the valleys below their fastnesses are rising in power and growing resentful of dominance from Monte Alban just like OTL, but since Monte Alban still has connections in Mexico, they don't sit on the verge of being utterly destroyed. It's not a golden age, but the Classic Era kingdoms and cities of Mexico remain in existence and are continuing to advance and grow at a steady pace instead of hectic rises and falls.
Meanwhile, to the east, the Maya are in a complex situation. There are now several large kingdoms that have been growing in power at the expense of smaller polities that have been forced to submit or fall. It is survival of the fittest. Despite this seemingly bleak statement, the situation is actually more peaceful than OTL. Less petty conflicts interrupt the cycle of farming or the usual trade routes. People can prosper in relative peace, though there are still occasional wars for dominance of specific regions that are as violent as any Maya conflict. Nevertheless, while the political situation centralizes with more large kingdoms and empires forming, actual kingdoms are decentralizing. In many places the local ruler falls from supreme importance, and while still retaining control, the council houses become a staple of politics that sometimes keep kings in check. There are less massive, monumental building projects that consume needless amounts of resources. And as their people spread to create settlements in Honduras away from the dense clutter of the Peten and Yucatan, traders go further than ever before. Eventually they go far enough to meet traders venturing from far off South American empires. They receive new animals and crops, in exchange for giving jade and crops like maize and tobacco. The South Americans were particularly interested by the writing the Maya used.
So with a Mesoamerican world like this forming around 8-900 AD, what are your thoughts on how they might develop and what might the period of contact look with a wildly different civilization that evolves from this situation?
I can guess we could look at how the Europeans adopted the potato in order to determine a basic timescale for how fast the potato catches on in Mesoamerica. I'm guessing it'll take about a century for it to really become accepted throughout the various cultures. That would lead to a crazy population boom.