alternatehistory.com

Hello everyone. I discovered this forum a few days ago while searching for alternate history scenarios and I thought I would join and participate in the discussions.

While Confederacy ALT are very popular I couldn't find one, here at least, where the Union and Confederacy refuse to fight each other.


I am thinking of doing an ALT with the POD being that there is no Civil War but I would like to get feedback from the forum.

So this is the scenario I have in mind, which isn't really that unrealistic IMO.

Lincoln is elected and the 7 southern states secede. The CSA seizes federal property in the South and tries to negotiate with the Union on a price. Lincoln refuses to meet with the CSA representatives, but Seward does because he doesn't mind giving up on Fort Sumter and the other Charleston forts.

The South Carolina Governor has ordered the Union troops to evacuate the Charleston forts, but lets assume here that Davis convinces him to show some restraint. Davis' Secretary of State had advised him that starting a war with the North would have been disastrous for the South.

Now lets also assume that Seward reaches an agreement with the CSA delegates to sell federal property. Lincoln of course doesn't recognize the CSA, but this doesn't have to be an issue if they agree to sell Fort Sumter to South Carolina rather than the Confederate government.
So the USA does not recognize the CSA but the 2 countries don't go to war until 1864 at least.
What happens in the 1864 election? Who would be the candidates and who wins in your opinion?

Also, would the upper south states secede if there is no war? I would assume Arkansas and Tennessee remain in the Union, but I'm not sure about Virginia. Lincoln had apparently offered to evacuate Fort Sumter if Virginia remained in the Union but the secession camp was quite strong in Virginia even before Fort Sumter happened. North Carolina I would assume would have remained in the Union if Virginia did, but I'm not sure what it would have done if Virginia seceded (we would have had a strange looking map if Virginia was in the CSA and North Carolina in the USA).


A couple of other things I'm not sure about is whether Britain and France would have recognized the CSA and what would have happened to the Arizona Territory and the Indiana Territory. My guess is that the Indian territory wouldn't have seceded while the Arizona territory would have, but I'm not sure how Lincoln would have responded. I assumed there would have been no Emancipation Proclamation without a war, but if someone can convince me otherwise I would be happy to hear what they think.

Thoughts?
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