No CIA Coup against Mosseddeq in Iran

Mohammad Mossaddeq was the Prime Minister of Iran who in 1953 was overthrown in a CIA-sponsored coup, setting in motion the chain of events which led to the Iranian Revolution of 1979. But Mossaddeq was actually quite pro-American, and America had earlier, at least tacitly, supported him in his dispute with the British over the nationalization of the Iranian oil industry.

From here...

The government of the United Kingdom had grown increasingly distressed over Mosaddeq's policies and were especially bitter over the loss of their control of the Iranian oil industry. Repeated attempts to reach a settlement had failed.

Unable to resolve the issue single handedly due to its post-World War II problems, Britain looked towards the United States to settle the issue. Initially America had opposed British policies. After American mediation had failed several times to bring about a settlement, American Secretary of State Dean Acheson concluded that the British were "destructive and determined on a rule or ruin policy in Iran." By early 1953, however, Dwight D. Eisenhower won the presidential election in the United States and a change in US policy toward Iran ensued.

Eisenhower was persuaded by Winston Churchill that Mossaddeq was turning toward communism, and Eisenhower decided to assist the British in overthrowing him. But what if Churchill's effort had failed, or Eisenhower had not been elected, and previous American policy had been continued?
 
British try and do it alone or with the aid of a second party. Most likely fails miserably. Churchill's image is heavily damaged and he likely resigns.

Britain needed to maintain its control over Iranian oil reserves.

Since OTL they managed to institute basically a world boycott of Iranian oil (my increasing output from other areas picked up the demand), the Iranian economy falls apart as it was heading towards doing so. Mossadegh is removed in a palace coup by either the Shah or someone else who is pro british as the economy collapses.
 
British try and do it alone or with the aid of a second party. Most likely fails miserably. Churchill's image is heavily damaged and he likely resigns.

Britain needed to maintain its control over Iranian oil reserves.

Since OTL they managed to institute basically a world boycott of Iranian oil (my increasing output from other areas picked up the demand), the Iranian economy falls apart as it was heading towards doing so. Mossadegh is removed in a palace coup by either the Shah or someone else who is pro british as the economy collapses.

The Shah did try firing Mossadeg, but it didn't work out well since his supporters rioted, and he dissolved the Maljis (unconstitutionally). Ultimately I would agree that he would have failed anyway, as the CIA's involvement is drastically overstated in being the main cause of his removal. The original movement against Mossadeg failed, and Kermit Roosevelt was ready to admit it as a failure until another royalist movement spontaneously acted.

I think the biggest impact is that the CIA wouldn't have gotten an overinflated sense of their ability to regime change ignoring popular sentiment.
 
British try and do it alone or with the aid of a second party. Most likely fails miserably. Churchill's image is heavily damaged and he likely resigns.

Britain needed to maintain its control over Iranian oil reserves.

Since OTL they managed to institute basically a world boycott of Iranian oil (my increasing output from other areas picked up the demand), the Iranian economy falls apart as it was heading towards doing so. Mossadegh is removed in a palace coup by either the Shah or someone else who is pro british as the economy collapses.

The Shah did try firing Mossadeg, but it didn't work out well since his supporters rioted, and he dissolved the Maljis (unconstitutionally). Ultimately I would agree that he would have failed anyway, as the CIA's involvement is drastically overstated in being the main cause of his removal. The original movement against Mossadeg failed, and Kermit Roosevelt was ready to admit it as a failure until another royalist movement spontaneously acted.

I think the biggest impact is that the CIA wouldn't have gotten an overinflated sense of their ability to regime change ignoring popular sentiment.

So the general consensus is Mossaddeq was doomed anyway? Is there any way he could have been removed, while preserving democracy in Iran?
 
I guess it would have to more likely fall upon a change of attitude on the Shah. He essentially wanted to ram down as much modernization as fast as possible, and he didn't want anyone standing in the way.
 
So the general consensus is Mossaddeq was doomed anyway? Is there any way he could have been removed, while preserving democracy in Iran?

I'm not sure about him being certainly doomed, but events were starting to slip away from Mossadegh. I'm kind of rusty on the period in question, so I won't speculate on what is necessary to save or ruin him, but it isn't that far-fetched to think that he might lose power anyways.
 
Top