No Chiang Kae Shekj

If he died young, was not conceived or was a girl would China have done better against Japan, could China have had a less violent internal history
 

yourworstnightmare

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Who would be the Kuomintang leader without him, and would there be a Northern Expedition, or would the warlord coalition be allowed to keep Beijing?
 
Without Chiang Kai Shek, and without a politically shrewd person on the KMT's right faction, the leftist and Sun Yat Sen protege Wang Jingwei succeeds as KMT leader. Wang was never a military person and would not have been able to pull off anything similar to the Northern March, which would have prolonged the Warlord Era. He would have been at least initially more tolerant of the Communists as an industrial workers' movement, not least because he would have been dependent on Soviet support, but wouldn't have hesitated to crush them if the Commies threatened his power. And with the lack of a credible Chinese government, it makes the Japanese invasion even bloodier and longer than OTL.

Bottom line: Chiang was one damn badass strategist.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Beijing in warlord hands would probably create butterflies in Japan. Would for example the Japanese feel they can't control the Fengtien warlords in Manchuria in 1933 if Kuomintang don't have troops on the Manchurian- Chinese border? If Japan think their citizens in Manchuria are safe, and the Fengtien warlords will follow their orders (no rival power near to influence them) they might not feel it's necessary to invade Manchuria at all. And no Manchurian war creates more butterflies down the line. The question is: who would Japan see as more dangerous in this scenario: the Southern Kuomintang government or the northern Warlord government?
 
Beijing in warlord hands would probably create butterflies in Japan. Would for example the Japanese feel they can't control the Fengtien warlords in Manchuria in 1933 if Kuomintang don't have troops on the Manchurian- Chinese border? If Japan think their citizens in Manchuria are safe, and the Fengtien warlords will follow their orders (no rival power near to influence them) they might not feel it's necessary to invade Manchuria at all. And no Manchurian war creates more butterflies down the line. The question is: who would Japan see as more dangerous in this scenario: the Southern Kuomintang government or the northern Warlord government?

Because the KMT is headed by Wang Jingwei and is being supported by the Soviets (unless the butterflies cause Trotsky to prevail over Stalin) and Zhili was supported by the west, Japan will fear the KMT more. Problem is, Wang must eventually satisfy the wealthy landlords and industrialists whose support is so crucial to the KMT's hold on power over China's economic heartland. My guess is eventually he will order a crackdown on Communists just like Chiang. But he doesn't seem to command the authority that Chiang did IOTL, to *totally* banish them from the cities.
 

yourworstnightmare

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Because the KMT is headed by Wang Jingwei and is being supported by the Soviets (unless the butterflies cause Trotsky to prevail over Stalin) and Zhili was supported by the west, Japan will fear the KMT more. Problem is, Wang must eventually satisfy the wealthy landlords and industrialists whose support is so crucial to the KMT's hold on power over China's economic heartland. My guess is eventually he will order a crackdown on Communists just like Chiang. But he doesn't seem to command the authority that Chiang did IOTL, to *totally* banish them from the cities.
One also has to remember the USSR didn't care much for the crackdown on Chinese communists at first OTL. They were happy with their good relations with Chiang, and didn't think the Chinese Communists had a chance anyways. Later they adjusted their policy when the Communists grew stronger. So the USSR might not care if Wang crushes the Communists if they otherwise have good relations.
 
One also has to remember the USSR didn't care much for the crackdown on Chinese communists at first OTL. They were happy with their good relations with Chiang, and didn't think the Chinese Communists had a chance anyways. Later they adjusted their policy when the Communists grew stronger. So the USSR might not care if Wang crushes the Communists if they otherwise have good relations.

But who is the "USSR"? Stalin supported the KMT/CPC United Front and in his words hoped the Communists would "squeeze the KMT like a lemon and toss it away". Trotsky hoped for a mass revolution instead. If the butterflies affect *that* epic power struggle then a lot will change in China, Russia, and globally.
 

yourworstnightmare

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But who is the "USSR"? Stalin supported the KMT/CPC United Front and in his words hoped the Communists would "squeeze the KMT like a lemon and toss it away". Trotsky hoped for a mass revolution instead. If the butterflies affect *that* epic power struggle then a lot will change in China, Russia, and globally.
Trotsky coming to power is near ASB. He was really not liked (and even if the Trotskyites somehow got to power in the USSR Trotsky would be happy with leading the army and leave politics to others more capable, he was a bad politician, and he knew it).
Stalin means Realpolitik. A friendly China is important, a Communist China would be great, but not really necessary.
And somehow I don't think no Chiang would have any more butterflies on the USSR other than their policy towards China.
 
Bottom line: Chiang was one damn badass strategist.

Jiang Jieshi was a good general, he was badass, but he was not indispensable. Remember, it was Jiang who decided to purge the Communists in the GMD and the party army, which caused the split between the rightists in Nanjing and Wang Jingwei's leftists in Wuhan. This political and military break allowed northern warlords Sun Chuanfang and Zhang Zuolin to regroup and stage a counterattack which eliminated all the gains of the previous campaigns. It was only the negotiations of Li Zongren and other more pragmatic generals which allowed a rapprochement within the GMD and allowed them to recover from what should have been a crippling blow.

I'll write more later - long story short, the GMD could have gotten along fine without Jiang. It was only his personality cult which made him seen as absolutely necessary for Nationalist survival.
 
Jiang Jieshi was a good general, he was badass, but he was not indispensable. Remember, it was Jiang who decided to purge the Communists in the GMD and the party army, which caused the split between the rightists in Nanjing and Wang Jingwei's leftists in Wuhan. This political and military break allowed northern warlords Sun Chuanfang and Zhang Zuolin to regroup and stage a counterattack which eliminated all the gains of the previous campaigns. It was only the negotiations of Li Zongren and other more pragmatic generals which allowed a rapprochement within the GMD and allowed them to recover from what should have been a crippling blow.

I'll write more later - long story short, the GMD could have gotten along fine without Jiang. It was only his personality cult which made him seen as absolutely necessary for Nationalist survival.

This is putting too much blame on Jiang. After all, you could say it deepened the split between Wang and Jiang, but the roots of the split were already there before the purge, and I think something similar would have already happened. After all, Wang had already declared his Wuhan government before the Shanghai massacres (I don't know about whether it was before the other massacres), so a preemptive CCP/KMT-Left attack during the Northern Expedition seems possible too.

I'm not sure about Zhang Zuolin, but I'm pretty sure that Sun Chuanfang didn't have the resources or intellect to deal a crippling blow to the Nationalists. After all, didn't Li Zongren managed to defeat Sun's forces even before the rapprochement between the Wuhan and Nanjing governments was finalized? I'm not sure about Beijing, but the Nationalist position in Nanjing seemed fairly secure.

Anyways, while I'm not saying Jiang Jieshi is absolutely indispensable, he still is important for the unification of China. It might just be me, but besides Jiang (and maybe Zhang), there doesn't seem to be anybody who could have the resources or intelligence to unify China. Certainly not the minor northern warlords, and probably not the other KMT-aligned warlords.
 
This is putting too much blame on Jiang. After all, you could say it deepened the split between Wang and Jiang, but the roots of the split were already there before the purge, and I think something similar would have already happened. After all, Wang had already declared his Wuhan government before the Shanghai massacres (I don't know about whether it was before the other massacres), so a preemptive CCP/KMT-Left attack during the Northern Expedition seems possible too.

I'm not sure about Zhang Zuolin, but I'm pretty sure that Sun Chuanfang didn't have the resources or intellect to deal a crippling blow to the Nationalists. After all, didn't Li Zongren managed to defeat Sun's forces even before the rapprochement between the Wuhan and Nanjing governments was finalized? I'm not sure about Beijing, but the Nationalist position in Nanjing seemed fairly secure.

Anyways, while I'm not saying Jiang Jieshi is absolutely indispensable, he still is important for the unification of China. It might just be me, but besides Jiang (and maybe Zhang), there doesn't seem to be anybody who could have the resources or intelligence to unify China. Certainly not the minor northern warlords, and probably not the other KMT-aligned warlords.

I might be laying too much blame on Jiang, true. I just think that in the context of the Guomindang and the Nationalist revolution, things did not turn on one man - there were many competent generals besides Jiang himself. And for what it's worth, as early as 1925/26 the GMD had planned on moving their capital to Wuhan when they captured it, shifting the provisional Nationalist government from southern Guangzhou to a major city in central China, yet far enough from Shanghai to afford some protection in case the imperialists launched a counterattack. -- as far as I remember Wang Jingwei moving the capital to Wuhan was something the GMD as a whole had agreed upon for years.

I have always liked the possibility Feng Yuxiang, the "Christian general" filling Jiang's role in a TL without the OTL Generalissimo... he was a good tactician and strategist, had more than a decade of experience, and demonstrated loyalty to the Guomindang during the Northern Expedition. Failing that, there's always Bai Chongxi, Li Zongren, or perhaps Tang Shengzhi taking over the Nationalist republic after the expedition...
 
But who is the "USSR"? Stalin supported the KMT/CPC United Front and in his words hoped the Communists would "squeeze the KMT like a lemon and toss it away". Trotsky hoped for a mass revolution instead. If the butterflies affect *that* epic power struggle then a lot will change in China, Russia, and globally.
If we're going to change the leader of the USSR (which nothing in the OP implies that) can we have Nikolai Bukharin as general secretary then? :)

He was suppose to usher in an era of happiness. :( :( :(
 
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