No Burma Campaign: consequences for other theatres

[ivanotter]

The Burma Campaign consumed a fair amount of troops (British, Japanese and some US/China).
But was it worth it?

It is obvious that Japan needed to secure the flanks; hence Thailand (Siam in those days) had to be invested. It is also clear that a threat from Chinese forces had to be balanced.

None of this would automatically trigger any invasion of India or even a total occupation of Burma.

Rangoon had to be occupied as much as the Indian border areas. Going beyond Irrawaddy might have been too far.

If Japan had just secured its borders, would Britain (who was rally the only force opposing Japan in Burma) have put all this effort into it? Wiki mentions some 1 million Allied troops in the Burma campaign. Japan having some 300,000.

Burma Area was not taken in by Mutaguchi’s plan of Indian invasion. The reasons: climate, terrain, need.

So, could it have become a fizzle and majority of efforts used somewhere else?

What would another 300,000 Japanese have meant in other theatres? 1 million Allied?

… and is it a realistic assessment that it was really wasting time and resources?

More importantly: what would the consequences have been?

 

[TDM]

The problem Japan has is that every step it takes into SEAsia and the West Pacific requires it to then taken another step and another step, because there are so many vested interests who's toes it is stepping on that it has to secure itself from them

So say they stop at Rangoon and fortify the east bank of the Irrawaddy, yep they can cut off the Burma/China road

But that long "border" to defend when the Indian army comes calling, and the Indian army will come calling at some point.

The Chindwin is better defence line, at which point that's pretty much Burma.

Thing is you still have to deal with Colonial India one way or another. Colonial India and the New Japanese empire can't co-exist side by side.

The best possible outcome for Japan is India with right encouragement overthrows British rule. But the Japanese can't just sit there waiting for it to happen, especially if in the meantime Indian forces invade Burma. I,e it will be of little comfort to the Japanese if India wins it's freedom as a side effect of defeating Japan in Burma. So they have to go and try and make it happen, be the emancipator of Asia from colonial rule.

 

[ivanotter]

Correct - that is the thing. It is hard to stop and consolidate, especially with a very long and difficult border.

However, there are some natural defensive lines in Burma - According to "the longest war' by Louis Allen.

Indian divisions were still very much officiered by British. Bose did have a following. Now Indians were not universally popular in Burma and that could also have an impact.

Allen mentions a few things about the co-prosperity unit. Whether it was just 100% scam or not, it managed to raise the hopes of independence throughout. Those notions could not be neglected long-term.

could a free and truly independent Burma be an inspiration for India? maybe. But it would make any re-occupation difficult.

If no Japanese activity in Burma, why would Britain invest so much in it? the Indian divisions could be used somewhere else.

Standing guard is one thing, but attacking across Burma is something else. Could it be justified when the need was somewhere else?

It is also my perception that Brooke after all was not so interested in Asia.

 

[TDM]

Correct - that is the thing. It is hard to stop and consolidate, especially with a very long and difficult border.

However, there are some natural defensive lines in Burma - According to "the longest war' by Louis Allen.

There are, as I said the Chindwin is good one

Indian divisions were still very much officiered by British. Bose did have a following. Now Indians were not universally popular in Burma and that could also have an impact.

Allen mentions a few things about the co-prosperity unit. Whether it was just 100% scam or not, it managed to raise the hopes of independence throughout. Those notions could not be neglected long-term.

Problem was the reality of the GEACPS, become pretty clear, pretty quickly

could a free and truly independent Burma be an inspiration for India? maybe. But it would make any re-occupation difficult.

Possibly but this is a "Notzi" argument (not sure what the Japanese equivalent of "Notzi" would be here)

If no Japanese activity in Burma, why would Britain invest so much in it? the Indian divisions could be used somewhere else.

Standing guard is one thing, but attacking across Burma is something else. Could it be justified when the need was somewhere else?

It is also my perception that Brooke after all was not so interested in Asia.

You already explained why the British would go back in:

1), to reopen the Burma road to China
2). to push the Japanese out of Siam, Malaya, Singapore etc

 

[Cryhavoc101]

The important issue with Burma as I see it for the Japanese is it represents the principle method for the allies to send equipment to the Chinese via Rangoon.

This obviously strengthens Chinese forces fighting the Japanese in China.

In 1942 the Chinese also have 9 divisions in Burma (5th, 6th and 66th army's) , including 3 of the very good ones (even if we apply the one call sign lower rule - that's still at least 3 plus Divisions in fighting capability) and so its not just the British Commonwealth forces that they have to be concerned about.

Left to strengthen both they and the British Indian Army is only going to get stronger, better trained etc and be able to attack into Malaya/Thailand earlier if left in place not to mention the air basing potential.

 

[ivanotter]

It is a tricky one with China.

I was under the impression that the bulk of support was stored for fighting Mao later on, after the US/UK forces had kicked Japan out of China.

Admittedly, General Sun was in high esteem and so was his division. But the rest apparently was 'low-grade'.

Ledo road did not become a factor until rather late - and Japan would have known what the capacity was and when it could become a factor.

If Mutagushi's plan is not approved, there would be a lull in Burma.

1 million allied forces in Burma is a lot. Wonder why Churchill didn't pick up on that?

 

[GuildedAgeNostalgia]

It is a tricky one with China.

I was under the impression that the bulk of support was stored for fighting Mao later on, after the US/UK forces had kicked Japan out of China.

I was under the impression that Stillwell stole a lot of the aid going to China to give to his forces on the Burmese front.

 

[freelander]

If we just held India and made it clear to Japan some how that that was the line in the sand cross the line and god help you. What would Japan have done we I’d say most probably depopulated Burma for a start they would I am sure be worked to death for some reason or another. Once America managed to get into gear Japan was doomed no mater what resources Japan stole from Asia it would never have been enough as soon as the Japanese Navy was removed from the board Japan’s time was up. However if they intrenched in Burma some one would have to go and kick them out and for some reason America would I am sure look at Britain and say over to you. The key would be the Emperor would the troops in Burma and China obey his surrender order or not.

 

[allanpcameron]

Burma also has oil and rice, making it worth taking for its own sake, from a Japanese point of view.
Allan

 

[Cryhavoc101]

It is a tricky one with China.

I was under the impression that the bulk of support was stored for fighting Mao later on, after the US/UK forces had kicked Japan out of China.

Admittedly, General Sun was in high esteem and so was his division. But the rest apparently was 'low-grade'.

Ledo road did not become a factor until rather late - and Japan would have known what the capacity was and when it could become a factor.

If Mutagushi's plan is not approved, there would be a lull in Burma.

1 million allied forces in Burma is a lot. Wonder why Churchill didn't pick up on that?

1 Million allied forces in Burma - for the entire Far East not just Burma.

But the war ended with Japans surrender before they could finish their job

They had planned Operation Zipper an invasion of Malaya before Japans surrender, and other operations were in the wings for the rest of the front.

 

[ivanotter]

Well, yes - UK planned on offensives in 1946 (and I think even beyond that). Nobody knew about the bomb at that level.

Apparently Japan actually tried to get the co-prosperity working (to some extent) in Burma. According to Allen there was more to it. It was not just the heavy-handed occupation as in Korea and Manchuria. Allan claims it was also a matter of the Japanese involved in Burma more than army command.

In essence, it could have made any British offensive into Burma troublesome if the greater population would rather work with the Japanese than facing the prospect of the British coming back and just carrying on as they left off.

Those ideas of the colonial powers just coming back were dead. Vietnam, Cambodia, Burma, ... nobody wanted the old regime back.

If nothing really happens in Burma, no Imphal, no Mutagushi, nothing... it offers a different scenario.

It will surely mean that the Ledo road is plodding along and still not making any contribution before we get late in the day. The airlift provides something for China, but ...

Would Southern Army be depleted and allocated to China?

Timeframe is also interesting: 1944 was the year it changed in Burma. But Japan was not yet defeated at all in that part of the world.

Could a serious shift of 15th Japanese army units have made China collapse after all? Ichi-go was from April to December 1944.
Although Ichi-go didn't achieve its strategic objectives, it did achieve tactical gains.

It just showed that Japan was not finished.

Now if we add 15th army to Ichi-go?

If China realises that the can be no winner, only a weakening of their forces and then opening it all up to Mao, maybe, just maybe, some sort of agreement can be brokered.

Japan were players in the political sphere after all.

It puts into question if Japan could make agreement with Japan, block any attempts from Burma and transfer forces to ... where really?

January 1945 in the Pacific is not kind to Japan.