No Bull Moose --Taft wins

?What would be the effects on WW1 of a second Taft term?

?Who would win the Presidential Election in 1916?
 
Well, what's the actual POD? The Progressives do just poorly enough that Taft wins? Teddy actually dies as a result of the assassination attempt? Taft never takes actions Teddy considers to betray his legacy? These are important to determine the effect on 1916.

Prior to that is of course the effect on the 1915 Lousitania Crisis. I doubt Taft takes the sinking alone as a casus belli, but he may press harder than Wilson to get Germany to stop and ensure something like true neutrality. Likely, the Germans still decide to restict U-boat warfare, since refusing has an even greater chance of pushing the Americans into action.

And then of course there's the question of what Taft does in response to Pancho Villa, which may complicate America's ability to get involved in WWI.

All that being said, it's a very interesting WI. The Democrats will have to come up with someone new to run in 1916. Either we have the potential for a noob to be in charge in April 1917 or for a Republican, in either way, we butterfly away all of Wilson's effects on the Versailles Treaty. All of this assumes that America enters the war on schedule, with little effect on the outcome of the fighting.

Now, if the POD is that Taft and Roosevelt are never estranged (possible, since Taft OTL was a bigger trust-buster than TR himself), then perhaps Taft drafts TR into service as Secretary of State in the summer of 1914 and sends the Nobel Peace Prize winner to Europe. Presto-chango, WWI forestalled.
 
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