What if Braxton Bragg either died before the ACW or unable to serve in the CSA army for some other reason? How much better is it for the South?
Without Bragg you might see Adley H. Gladden take his place as the commander of the Army of Pensacola. Apparently he acquitted himself well during the initial phase of the war...
The next big question is what happens during Shiloh? Does Gladden (or whomever else takes Bragg's place) follow a similar strategy when dealing with the infamous "Hornets' Nest"? Apparently Gladden was a bit of a gloryhound so lets say a Union soldier manages to shoot him during Shiloh causing his command to falter.
Assuming that Gladden doesn't seriously impact the overall outcome of the Battle of Shiloh, that means that someone other than Bragg is going to take command of the Army of the Mississippi following Corinth. The best choice here IMO is William Hardee, a renowned tactician and able commander nicknamed "Old Reliable", runner up due primarily to political considerations and Jefferson Davis' favor is Leonidas Polk.
Let's assume the smart choice is made and Hardee is given command of the Army of Tennessee. All things being equal Hardee is still going to invade Kentucky, however let's say that in TTL he's able to talk some sense into Smith and better coordinate the attack or perhaps he convinces Davis to formally merge the Army of East Tennessee with the Army of the Mississippi. Together, the invasion will start later but will have a much better chance of beating Buell. An alternate Kentucky campaign could seriously affect things in the west...
That being said the CSA is still a long ways from victory even without Bragg.
The LOGIC of your ideas are unassailable. Unfortunately, logic and Jefferson Davis rarely crossed paths. Polk will get the command because Davis valued friendship and loyalty above all. That's why men like Polk, Bragg, Northrop, and Pendleton continued to serve long after their incompetence had become obvious to everyone else.
Perhaps not. Johnston would be unavailable this early in the war, since he's still recovering from his wounds at Seven Pines. However, it is likely that another Davis favorite and his former brother-in-law, Richard Taylor might get the command, although he's an outside favorite.The LOGIC of your ideas are unassailable. Unfortunately, logic and Jefferson Davis rarely crossed paths. Polk will get the command because Davis valued friendship and loyalty above all. That's why men like Polk, Bragg, Northrop, and Pendleton continued to serve long after their incompetence had become obvious to everyone else.
Perhaps not. Johnston would be unavailable this early in the war, since he's still recovering from his wounds at Seven Pines. However, it is likely that another Davis favorite and his former brother-in-law, Richard Taylor might get the command, although he's an outside favorite.
Taylor, despite having no formal military training --not that it mattered, neither did Nathan Bedford Forrest-- showed some good sense on the battlefield. The question would be whether he would be able to command units the size of the Army of Tennessee even though Taylor did show flashes of brilliance in his smaller engagements against US forces. Another issue would be Taylor's health. He had severe arthritis, which limited his mobility in the field.
In terms of relations with other general officers such as Pendleton and other Confederate armies, it would be difficult to complain to Jefferson Davis about his own brother-in-law.
At this time --Shiloh-- PGT Beauregard is in command, having replaced the late A.S. Johnston.Richard Taylor was lowly Brigadier General at the time of Shiloh. He didn't rise to army command until late 1863. Given that he has no military experience at the beginning of the war, he won't be given an army command at the beginning of the Civil War in the absence of Bragg. I'm not saying he wouldn't be a good choice...he might well be...but he won't get the opportunity.
Probably because it hasn't occurred to anyone to mention him at this time.Why is John C. Breckinridge not being brought up as a possible alternative commander?
Probably because it hasn't occurred to anyone to mention him at this time.
Since you have, for our benefit, please go ahead and make the case for him.
My own suspicions are that the man was a drunkard, due to the recorded events of Johnston Surrendering to Sherman in May 1865 and Breckinridge's death due to cirrosis of the liver, but then Bragg is responsible for some of those rumors and since Grant was also reputed to be a drunk, so it doesn't necessarily disqualify him from command.
Possible commanders of the Army of Mississippi without Bragg.
Albert Sidney Johnston - since there is a case to be made that Bragg should have bypassed the Hornets Nest at Shiloh rather than assaulting it there is a possibility that Sidney Johnston could have survived the battle since he fell in a charge against that position. How he would have handled the situation afterward however is just conjecture as he didn't have long enough to prove exactly what he could - that said his early performances hadn't been that good.
P.G.T. Beauregard - assuming Sidney Johnston died then even without Bragg Beauregard will lose Shiloh and Corinth. At Shiloh he took the pressure off and allowed the Federals to regroup and at Corinth he was only looking to retreat anyway. This in itself wont cost him command but the fact that he went AWOL will.
William J. Hardee - a likely possible contender but he was kind of unique in the Confederacy as one of the few officer who did not seek a high level of independent command. In December 1863 he turned down command of the Army of Tennessee when he was offered it before Joseph Johnston got it because he didn't think he could handle it, if he did that after years of experience as a Corps Commander he's going to turn it down when he's just a division commander. He could be ordered to take the job but there are still other options available its unlikely.
Leonidas Polk - chance of him getting command are quite high. While there is no one more senior available he's not going to turn it down if its offered, if someone more senior is available then he will - like when he tried to convince Joe Johnston to take command of the AoT in 1863. He is, however, the most likely candidate.
Richard Taylor - when Beauregard went AWOL and Bragg got command of the Army of Mississippi in OTL Taylor was busy in the Shenandoah Valley taking orders from Jackson. The fact that he's not only busy in the Valley Campaign but subordinate to Jackson rules him out of the running.
John C. Breckenridge - whether he was drunk or not does not change the fact that Breckenridge was a talented officer. With no prior military experience before the war he became an effective and efficient divisional and Corps commander and had a few independent commands during the war - the first a hit and miss afair in the Lower Mississippi and the second the very successful campaign in the Shenandoah Valley which almost got him a Corps Command under Lee. While he's favored by the administration and does get independent commands during the war in OTL I dont think that Davis would trust a man with no prior military experience with command of one of the Confederacies most important armies.
Possible other choices: Edmund Kirby Smith, Earl Van Dorn, Theophilus H. Holmes, John Magruder or Benjamin Huger - most appealing of those is Kirby Smith but who can say would get command with Davis picking choices without the advantage of hindsight.
The only thing I can think that would be completely certain is that without Bragg in command and unless Sidney Johnston proves to be much better than his early conduct seemed then General Joseph Johnston will get command of the Confederacy major western army in early-to-mid 1863 rather than the final days of 1863. Once Joe Johnston becomes available he is clearly superior to all other candidates as a replacement commander.