No Bloody Mary

WI Mary Tudor had predeceased Edward VI (but he still dies on schedule)?
Would we get Jane I, queen of England (in which case: does she eventually ditch Northumberland?), or would OTL's supporters of Mary just rally around Elizabeth instead (what does an earlier Elizabethan reign look like?)?
I'm especially interested in:
- religious settlement
- long term consequences (union or lack thereof, and relationship with Scotland, English colonization, alliances,...)
 
Under the succession law at the time (the Third Succession Act and the will Henry VIII made in concurrance with the Act), the line of succession after Henry was:
  1. Edward VI
  2. Mary
  3. Elizabeth
  4. Frances Grey (nee Branden) and her descendants (Jane, Catherine, and Mary Grey)
  5. Eleanor Clifford (nee Branden) and her descendants (Margaret Clifford, Countess of Derby)
  6. Henry's remaining heirs general (either Mary, Queen of Scots or Henry Stuart, Lord Darnley)
Edward, Mary, and Elizabeth were explicitly listed in the third succession act, and the Greys, Cliffords, and Stuarts were named in Henry's will.

Edward wrote a will of his own (under the advice of the Duke of Northumberland), which (if valid) would have skipped Mary, Elizabeth, and Frances and gone straight to Jane Grey, and I think he planned to have Parliament amend the Third Succession Act to confirm it, but he died before he got the chance.

Legally, there's very little question that Elizabeth would be the rightful heir. Politically, it's possible Northumberland would still try to get Edward to skip Elizabeth in favor of Jane, but since Elizabeth was protestant, that removes a lot of the urgency, and makes it questionable whether Edward would go along with it even if Northumberland tried.

Mary Queen of Scots is probably the only plausible rival (she's a minor at this time, being raised in the French royal court, but her mother Mary of Guise was on the verge of displacing the Earl of Arran as regent of Scotland). She's the next plausible Catholic in the line of succession, and she'd be the heir but for the Third Succession Act (Elizabeth is legally a bastard, as Henry's marriage to Anne Bolyen was annulled before Anne was beheaded, and Stuarts are geneologically senior to the Brandon/Grey/Clifford branch of the family even though Henry's will elevated the latter about the former). The legal basis for Edward's will, that not even an act of Parliament can place a bastard in the line of succession, can be made at least as easily in favor of Mary Stuart as for Jane Grey.

Supposing Edward still signs a will purporting to disinherit Elizabeth in favor of Jane, I'd expect Jane to wind up with almost no support, even less than OTL: as a Protestant, Elizabeth is much less scary to the Protestant nobles than Mary was, so pretty much the only reason to back Jane over Elizabeth would be desire to support Northumberland in a transparant power grab. I'd expect Elizabeth to pick up a fair portion of Mary's OTL support, although some Catholics might try to install Mary Queen of Scots instead.
 
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In terms of long term consequences,


If Elizabeth ascends unopposed:
  1. The Anglo-Spanish war may get butterflied away, without the bad blood over Philip's tenure as King Consort of England and England's subsequent second seperation from the Catholic Church.
  2. Religious settlement will probably wind up with less theological compromise (with Elizabeth continuing Edward's theological policies rather than restoring a compromise form of Anglicanism following Bloody Mary), but more political toleration (no Bloody Mary and perhaps no Anglo-Spanish war = less hatred and fear of Catholicism).
  3. Personal union between Scotland and England is likely delayed or prevented. Without the disputed succession after Edward and the divisiveness of Mary's reign, Jane will keep her head, and Elizabeth's going to be a lot less paranoid about naming an heir. Most likely, either Frances Branden or Jane Grey gets confirmed as Heir Presumptive upon Elizabeth's ascention to the throne. Also, without the negative example of Mary's marriage to Philip, Elizabeth is more likely to marry and produce an heir of her body.
If Elizabeth ascends opposed only by Jane Grey:
  1. As above
  2. There's going to be some pressure to throw a bone to her Catholic supporters. Probably a lot closer to OTL religious settlement theologically than in the previous scenario, plus an explicit guarentee of toleration for Catholics who swear a loyalty oath to the crown.
  3. As above, Elizabeth is at least somewhat likely to marry and try to produce an heir. Jane might keep her head if her support is weak enough that she's not seen as a threat, but she'll almost certainly be disinherited in favor of either her sister Catherine, or the Clifford branch of the Branden family, or the Stuarts. If Elizabeth dies without issue, personal union with Scotland is still a significant possibility.
If Elizabeth faces opposition from supporters of Mary, Queen of Scots:
  1. France and Scotland are likely to replace Spain as England's major enemy during Elizabeth's reign. A pro-Stuart Catholic rebellion in England is likely to be quickly defeated by Elizabeth's supporters, but the survivors are likely to flee to Scotland or France, and at this point Mary Queen of Scots is living in Paris and is betrothed to the heir to the French throne, so there's going to be major temptation by France to back Mary's claim to the English throne.
  2. Religious settlement may wind up as per OTL (with Elizabeth wanting to undercut Mary's support by moderating Anglican theology) or she may go hard-line Protestant in reaction to Catholic opposition to her rule.
  3. Personal union will happen only if France and Scotland defeat England militarily. Otherwise, if Elizabeth dies childless, her heir will almost certainly be Jane Grey if Jane didn't oppose Elizabeth up front. If Jane is put up for the throne as a rival to Elizabeth, and Elizabeth doesn't produce an heir, then there will be a situation somewhat similar to OTL, but the Stuarts will replace Infanta Isabella as the boogieman-claimant, leaving a competition between the rest of the Branden/Grey/Clifford branch and perhaps the Earls of Huntingdon (who have a distant potential claim via descent from the House of York).
 
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Any French-Scottish move to seize England will be exactly as welcome to Spain as would be expected.

Indeed, the Hapsburgs might use their influence over the church to prevent any such possibility as an Anglo-Scottish-French union.
 
Any French-Scottish move to seize England will be exactly as welcome to Spain as would be expected.

Indeed, the Hapsburgs might use their influence over the church to prevent any such possibility as an Anglo-Scottish-French union.

Did the Hapsburgs have ambitions on England prior to Philip's marriage to Mary Tudor, or would their opposition to Anglo-Scottish-French union be based purely on strategic considerations?
 
There were certainly enough Spanish-English royal marriages proposed and actually enacted to show a Spanish interest but it would obviously not be in Spain's strategic interests for France and the British Isles to be united.

For that matter, in 1588 it isn't entirely clear whether Spain was verging on doing more harm to England or on France...
 
I know the Spanish Hapsburgs had a geneological claim to the English throne, based on descent from Phillipa of Lancaster (who'd married into the Portrogese royal family, which later merged into the Spanish Hapsburgs), which was arguably senior to the Tudors' Lancaster line of descent. Philip played this up quite a bit for PR purposes after marrying Bloody Mary, and it later formed part of the basis for the Hapsburg claim to the English throne during the Anglo-Spanish war (combined with Mary Queen of Scots nominating Philip as her heir to the English throne, a jure uxoris claim based on his marriage to Mary, and explicit endorsement by the Pope). And the strategic considerations certainly make sense. I was just curious if you also knew of any attempts or ambitions by the Hapsburgs to advance their theoretical claim.
 
Edward VI's attempt to ammend the succession imposed by his father and approved by Parliament was for two reasons:
1) to ensure a Protestant succession
2) to try and engineer a male heir - his original device left the throne to the Lady Jane's heirs male (it was hastily altered when it became apparent that the King was dying)

Assuming Mary Tudor's early death then the urgency (both Edward's and Northumberland's) ceases to exist.

Edward was fond of Elizabeth who during his reign was happy to give the impression of being a devout, studious model princess.

She'd escaped the machinations of the Seymour brothers with little stain upon her character.

Northumberland will spend 1553 courting her and urging a pro Dudley marriage just as he arranged the marriages of the Grey sisters.

I doubt her accession would foster anything like what happened when they tried to impose Jane Grey.

Assuming Elizabeth succeeds her brother then you may see a continuation of Edward's religious policy but she was far more pragmatic in religion and it may well be tempered.

I would suspect that as in OTL Henri II of France will proclaim his son's betrothed wife's rights to the throne of England (due to Elizabeth's bastardy) which means Spain will support Elizabeth (as they did for as long as they could in OTL).

Assuming Mary is widowed as in OTL and returns to Scotland I would expect the same relationship between the two women - though Mary's fate might be different assuming she doesn't marry Darnley.

A 20 year old Elizabeth is probably as able to withstand the marriage offers as she was in OTL.

As to the successon - Elizabeth was no great fan of her close paternal relations and I doubt that will change - also there is a chance that the Duchess of Suffolk could have another child possibly a son in this scenario as her husband will live (she did produce two children in the late 50s before her death by her second husband though both died).
 
Edward VI's attempt to ammend the succession imposed by his father and approved by Parliament was for two reasons:
1) to ensure a Protestant succession
2) to try and engineer a male heir - his original device left the throne to the Lady Jane's heirs male (it was hastily altered when it became apparent that the King was dying)

Assuming Mary Tudor's early death then the urgency (both Edward's and Northumberland's) ceases to exist.

Edward was fond of Elizabeth who during his reign was happy to give the impression of being a devout, studious model princess.

She'd escaped the machinations of the Seymour brothers with little stain upon her character.

Northumberland will spend 1553 courting her and urging a pro Dudley marriage just as he arranged the marriages of the Grey sisters.

I doubt her accession would foster anything like what happened when they tried to impose Jane Grey.

Assuming Elizabeth succeeds her brother then you may see a continuation of Edward's religious policy but she was far more pragmatic in religion and it may well be tempered.

I would suspect that as in OTL Henri II of France will proclaim his son's betrothed wife's rights to the throne of England (due to Elizabeth's bastardy) which means Spain will support Elizabeth (as they did for as long as they could in OTL).

Assuming Mary is widowed as in OTL and returns to Scotland I would expect the same relationship between the two women - though Mary's fate might be different assuming she doesn't marry Darnley.

A 20 year old Elizabeth is probably as able to withstand the marriage offers as she was in OTL.

As to the successon - Elizabeth was no great fan of her close paternal relations and I doubt that will change - also there is a chance that the Duchess of Suffolk could have another child possibly a son in this scenario as her husband will live (she did produce two children in the late 50s before her death by her second husband though both died).
I agree with you strongly. I don't think that there would have been any pressure to make Jane queen with Mary already dead.
 

Wolfpaw

Banned
I could see less of an animus against Catholics. A good deal of the visceral anti-Catholicism of Tudor England had to do with Mary's reintroduction of the Inquisition and generally "whoring" out to Catholic princes. Without the trauma of the Mary's rule, English anti-Catholicism may be somewhat less pronounced.

That being said, pretty much all of England's enemies at the time were Catholic, so...
 
Certainly without the actions of Mary I there would be a lessening of the general anti-catholicism of Elizabeth's OTL reign.

It is worth bearing in mind that unlike either of her siblings Elizabeth was fairly middle of the road in religion and maintained throughout her life that as long as her Catholic subjects were loyal to her and shall we say were "quiet" in their religion she didn't mind what they practiced in private.

The problems were her council contained a number of individuals who were much more anti-catholic, there was both a real and perceived threat to Elizabeth by catholic forces both internal and external which in turn lead to harsher penalties for those who stuck by the old religion whether loyal or not.
Continuing uncertainty over the succession added to all of that.

Three things that impacted i think on her reluctance to marry and name an heir were her brush with the law due to Seymour's interest in her and her position as heir presumptive during Mary's reign and Mary's disastrous Spanish marriage - without Mary you are removing two of those.

She might not be as reluctant to name or recognise an heir in this TL and she may be more willing to contemplate marrying.

Assuming Elizabeth reigns from 1553 her council will initially resemble that of her brother, a surviving Northumberland will continue to have an influence as will a suriving Archbishop Cramner (who was her godfather if i remember correctly).

Though Northumberland and Cramner had fallen out by 53 and Cramner's continuing reform of canon law had failed to go any further after being blocked by Northumberland.
 
A lot of the antipathy towards Catholicism may never have developed in England as some of it was based on fear of the persecutions carried out by Bloody Mary. Philip of Spain who was her husband and who had designs on governing England actually warned Mary that her actionsw would make it difficult for Catholics in England in the long term and he was vindicated.
 
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