No Bismarck

Sorry, no Bismarck.

Yep, he died at birth, or was run over by a horse carriage, opts for a different career.

But Prussia will have to live with a less brilliant prime minister.

What are the effects? To what extent is Bismarck important for the unification of Germany, Germany´s foreign policy, and the development of social security?

Discuss.
 
What are the effects? To what extent is Bismarck important for the unification of Germany, Germany´s foreign policy, and the development of social security?
The lack of Bismarck may well be felt a while before that. Berlin in 1848 could be rather different.
 
The lack of Bismarck may well be felt a while before that. Berlin in 1848 could be rather different.
Not really. He had no influence in the events of the year 1848/49. But without him William I would have abdicated in 1861 months after he succeeded his brother Frederick William IV and Frederick III would have been king of Prussia.
 
Bismark was nearly killed in a railway-related accident IOTL.

He was also nearly drowned in 1862. While holidaying in Biarritz he got cramp while swimming, and had to be rescued by a French lifeguard.

That was in August. In September he was appointed Minister-President of Prussia.
 
Not really. He had no influence in the events of the year 1848/49. But without him William I would have abdicated in 1861 months after he succeeded his brother Frederick William IV and Frederick III would have been king of Prussia.


Actually it was September 1862 when that was proposed, but the Crown Prince refused to countersign it, believing that to do so would undermine the monarchy.

Shortly afterward, when Bismarck was appointed, he reportedly expressed regret about his refusal. However, with Bismarck dead he has even less reason to accept.
 
But I think we agree that the butterflies arise from the Constitutional Crisis of the early 1860s. Without Bismarck panache, we would either have a very heavy-handed counter-revolution, the king revoking the 1850 constitution or the King, either Wilhelm or his son, allowing Parliament to triump, setting a precedent for a rather liberal political development in Prussia.

What arises from that is a different aftermath of the 1864 Danish War which is probably not butterflied away, with Schleswig-Holstein becoming an independant member of the German Federation. What will probably be butterflied away is the 1866 "Bruderkrieg" where Prussia stood Saddam Hussein-like against not only Austria, but actually against every part of the rest of Germany which would not be occupied in a matter of hours instead of days.
 
But I think we agree that the butterflies arise from the Constitutional Crisis of the early 1860s. Without Bismarck panache, we would either have a very heavy-handed counter-revolution, the king revoking the 1850 constitution or the King, either Wilhelm or his son, allowing Parliament to triump, setting a precedent for a rather liberal political development in Prussia.

The other big butterfly is the 1863 Congress of Princes. OTL, the King wished to attend, but Bismarck talked him out of it. TTL, with no way visible out of the Constitutional crisis, Wilhelm may decide that if he must lose some of his power, better to lose it to a respectable monarch like Franz Josef rather than to a bunch of elected nobodies in frock coats. So we may get German unity (though looser than OTL's) by negotiation.


What arises from that is a different aftermath of the 1864 Danish War which is probably not butterflied away, with Schleswig-Holstein becoming an independant member of the German Federation. What will probably be butterflied away is the 1866 "Bruderkrieg" where Prussia stood Saddam Hussein-like against not only Austria, but actually against every part of the rest of Germany which would not be occupied in a matter of hours instead of days.

Of course if the CoP has produced a German constitution Wilhelm will be fighting under Austrian leadership.

If it hasn't, then he may well be off the hook. If he commits to the Duke of Augustenberg, he has German nationalism (to which most liberals subscribed) on his side, and the Prussian victory may well reconcile enough of them to the Three Year Service to bring accord between king and parliament. After that - -
 
Both the railway accident and the drowning sound like nice PODs, it´s good to have it from OTL near misses.

Is there any way of ending up with a really liberal but united Germany?

Or could we perhaps see a Germany remaining divided but with many of the monarchies turning into democratic constitutional monarchies?
 
Is there any way of ending up with a really liberal but united Germany?

If the constitutional crisis ends with a liberal victory and Wilhelm's abdication, we are prone to see a much more balanced Prussia. Still with an influential army and a strong monarch, but also a self-conscious Landtag. Considering that these are the 1860s, this should be enough to label it as liberal.

Germany unity would come in a slower, gradual process over the next decades, rather comparable to the development of the EU. The "Zollverein" created a trade-union (with Austria and very few smaller states not being part of it) and created guidelines to converge the national currencies. From OTL-1868 on, the Zollverein had an own Parliament, elected on base of universal male suffrage. It is not hard to see how this could rather smoothly lead to German unification without a war against France. However, this political integration of Southern Germany into the Prussian dominated sphere has to be achieved without the 1866 Bruderkrieg, which would probably not occur without Bismarck. That, actually, is the tricky part.

Or could we perhaps see a Germany remaining divided but with many of the monarchies turning into democratic constitutional monarchies?

Actually, almost all of the members of the German Federation were constitutional monarchies at that point of time. That the franchise was limited in one way or the other was not a German specialty.

As the general trend in Constitutional Monarchiesies goes, it is fair to assume that sooner or later the monarchs will be reduced to figureheads. This could be the case earlier in Bavaria or Württemberg, later elsewhere, last in Mecklenburg:p. A longer reigning King Friedrich in Prussia could bring about steps into this direction (without being utopic) which might prove decisive.

Austria(-Hungary) is a different case because it is very hard to make it work on a Parliamentary base. It actually needs very good monarchs to survive.
 
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