What if Napoleon could continue his mastery of manoeuvre, & battle it out throughout Germany in 1813, in a way which avoids him getting pinned down at the Battle of the Nations fought in & around Leipzig.
Could Napoleon succeed in keeping back the various nations allied against him, maybe pulling off a fantastic victory in the process, or is history bound to repeat itself to some degree where Napoleon is still forced to abdicate in 1814 sometime?
Discuss
Tha campaign in no way was decided beforehand, but the odds were worse than Napoleon ever had faced. First the allies were greatly superior in numbers, second they had learned a lot about how to conduct war and third Napoleon's army wasn't what it had been in earlier campaigns.
Napoleons chance lay in his unity of command and lack of the same on allied side. The general allied plan of closing in on Napoleon from all sides, but avoiding contact with Napoleon himself was ingeniouis, but could easily be jeopardised by a type like Blücher getting too eager, or the Monarchs pushing Schwarzenberg into something incautious like at Dresden, or by a Bernadotte avoiding any contact.
In OTL Blücher was kept on a leash, not at least by his very competent Chief of Staff Gneisenau, and as both Blücher and Schwarzenberg got in contact simultaneously, it meant nothing that Bernadotte and Benningsen were late. I'm quite impressed by how Schwarzenberg not only withstood the pressure on day one, but also distracted several French Corps to the fronts at Connewitz and Lindenau. In effect the usual advantage of the inner lines was turned into the French forces buzzing around like a fly in a bottle.
But from this also follows, that only small PoDs are needed before Napoleon can throw either Blücher or Schwarzenberg. Once that happens he can focus all forces on the other and I doubt Bernadotte or Benningsen will ever show up. Prussia and Austria both were on their "last armies" and are likely to seek peace. Alexander saw himself as nothing less than the Saviour of Mankind and might keep up the fight - but not for long.
Regards
Steffen Redbeard