What if due to getting better intelligence about British defenses on Crete Hitler opts not to risk the invasion of the island due to expected losses?
I couldn't find any thread on this topic, this was the closest I could find:
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=372748&highlight=crete
The Germans would save some 300 aircraft, about half of them Ju52s, plus several thousand casualties and a lot of wear and tear on other units, plus the garrisoning troops on Crete itself, which at its peak included some 75k mean, including top tier divisions. Obviously they would also have their paratroopers for Barbarossa, plus their transports, but then also 8th Fliegerkorps (Richthofen's CAS specialists) would save a lot of losses and wear and tear. Same with 5th Mountain division.
https://www.alternatehistory.com/discussion/showthread.php?t=360451&highlight=crete
The British would save some 10k Greek soldiers and over17k men not captured and over 4k killed. Plus the following naval losses:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Crete
4 cruisers and 6 destroyers sunk.
1 aircraft carrier, 2 battleships, 4 cruisers, 2 destroyers, 1 submarine damaged.
They would also retain Crete for operations, but as was the case in 1941 it wasn't a great airbase (as the Germans found out) and close to Axis positions in Greece, especially their better airbases (90 miles from Greek mainland). What's worse is that the best ports are on the north side of the island and vulnerable to attack from that directly and not supportable by land based Allied aircraft.
On balance was it a boon to the British to really hold? It would lock down tens of thousands of men and probably a lot of aircraft and ships to hold and supply, while close to Axis bases to attack with Decima MAS, submarines, aircraft, other special forces, etc. It took over 75k Axis troops to defend it IOTL and required a lot of upgrades to be used for naval strikes on Allied shipping, probably a lot more to be useful for strategic bombers. Might it end up being a Salonika of sorts, even if useful as a staging base to support guerillas in the Balkans and commando raids there too? Perhaps could the British then use the fact they have it as leverage in the argument about launching Churchill's desired Greek campaign? Might we end up seeing a disastrous invasion of Greece in 1942-44? Or could it be used to leverage the Turks to join the Allies sooner?
Who gains or loses more from Crete staying in British hands in 1941? Does the early end to the Greek campaign and greater forces available for Barbarossa make enough of a difference or are the British eventually able to leverage the island to make it of use to the war effort?