No Battle of Britain

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Deleted member 1487

Let's say that Raeder convinces Hitler that Sealion is impossible and Goering realizes that Britain cannot be bombed into submission. The BoB does not happen. What happens as a result?

Major effect: Large numbers of the best pilots in the LW don't die/get captured, including flight instructors. Also there are large numbers of aircraft that are saved.
British pilots that were OTL killed are able to train up that did not have the opportunity before. The Brits do not discard the flying V or get lots of combat experience. Also the city bombing taboo has not been broken yet.

What happens instead? Do these effects change the course of the war?
 
sl

Luftwaffe will be a lot stronger and more active in Barbarossa.
The war in the west will be fought in a more “civilized” way.
There will be less help from the US for GB.
If the Germans convince the Italians to keep quiet in the Mediterranean and instead of declaring war on GB and invading Egypt and Greece to occupy Yugoslavia (in collaboration with Bulgaria, Hung aria and limited German participation), they wont have to fight the Brits.
So in 1940 there will be a limited war in the skies of west Europe, GB, North Sea, and limited U-boat campaign.
That mean more resources for Barbarossa(after all Hitler didn’t care for GB his biggest goal was living space in the east).
So basically in this scenario most of Europe with gang up on Russia.
Some sort of crusade against communism.
 
Major effect: The Brits do not discard the flying V or get lots of combat experience.

The combat experience in the Battle of France had already led to the decision being made to drop the Vic formation. The tactic of flying and fighting in pairs was already being taught. See Johnie Johnson "Full Circle".
 
Let's say that Raeder convinces Hitler that Sealion is impossible and Goering realizes that Britain cannot be bombed into submission. The BoB does not happen. What happens as a result?

Major effect: Large numbers of the best pilots in the LW don't die/get captured, including flight instructors. Also there are large numbers of aircraft that are saved.
British pilots that were OTL killed are able to train up that did not have the opportunity before. The Brits do not discard the flying V or get lots of combat experience. Also the city bombing taboo has not been broken yet.

What happens instead? Do these effects change the course of the war?

Given the circumstances at the time, its ASB
Hitler could be convinced Sealion was impossible that year, but there is no way the Luftwaffe is just going to sit there in Europe and ignore the UK.
Goering was a believer in strategic bombing, and would at least have given it a try.
Possibly ( if Sealion wasnt even planned) we'd have seen a different BoB, but I doubt it. The Luftwaffe effort wasn't aimed at helping Sealion anyway!
 
er

Canceling sealion doesn’t imply doing nothing against GB.
Luftwaffe can still try and destroy RAF and harass shipping in the North Sea and the Channel.
 
Let's say that Raeder convinces Hitler that Sealion is impossible and Goering realizes that Britain cannot be bombed into submission. The BoB does not happen. What happens as a result?

Major effect: Large numbers of the best pilots in the LW don't die/get captured, including flight instructors. Also there are large numbers of aircraft that are saved.

The amount of airframes is not so important, IMHO. All this is dependant upon what course of action Luftwaffe will take against Great Britain. I think the only alternative to a bombing campaign is a campaign of naval-aerial siege against UK. This would mean heavy raids against harbours and shipping. Due to the fact that Luftwaffe would be forced (after some heavy losses) to bomb at night this means that Britain will respond in a night bombing campaign of Germany.

On the other hand, RAF losses will be much more serious than OTL. The interceptor force will be pushed towards active defense of coastal convoys and offensive sweeps to French airspace, resulting in much more severe pilot losses than in OTL. For Germany the result is inverted.
 
The amount of airframes is not so important, IMHO. All this is dependant upon what course of action Luftwaffe will take against Great Britain. I think the only alternative to a bombing campaign is a campaign of naval-aerial siege against UK. This would mean heavy raids against harbours and shipping. Due to the fact that Luftwaffe would be forced (after some heavy losses) to bomb at night this means that Britain will respond in a night bombing campaign of Germany.

On the other hand, RAF losses will be much more serious than OTL. The interceptor force will be pushed towards active defense of coastal convoys and offensive sweeps to French airspace, resulting in much more severe pilot losses than in OTL. For Germany the result is inverted.


Pardon!?
(1) You cant conduct an anti-shipping campaign at night
(2) The Germans DID attack ports - and other cities - at night. So just WHY does doing it (again) suddenly cause the British much heavier losses, exactly?
 
If Raeder does indeed convince Hitler that Sealion is not feasible, then the question will rise up what kind of other measures there are to fight Britain.

Two possibilities arise here:

1. A bigger U-Boat campaign with more resources diverted to the Kriegsmarine

2. A Mediterranean strategy

Possibility 1. is in my opinion not feasible, because the Germans were already producing lots of submarines and production was already scheduled to fix towards tanks and equipment needed for Barbarossa.

The Mediterranean strategy on the other hand could be a viable option. The Germans could have simply sent troops off to Africa in 1940 and try to help the Italians fight the British. With more Luftwaffe available and the paratroopers not dead in Crete yet, Malta could become a target for late 1940/early 1941.
Instead of Italy going alone against Greece, the Germans could aid with bombers and mountain infantry.

With a bit of luck it could all work out for the Germans, so that Barbarossa can still be launched in time in 1941, only this time the Germans are in Egypt as well and the British on the retreat.
 
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