No Barbarossa - Russia stays out

DuQuense

POD - France moves to NAfrica June/July 1940. 3rd Army evacuates from Italy Border to Corsica, leaves most heavy behind, but take all Small Arms and Light Equipment.

Octobre
French have reorganized, Operation Compass/boussole begins with a drive from Egypt & Tunisia.
Despite several squadrons of Luftwaffe planes, Libya falls by Decembre.

Early May 1941
France and Britain invade Sardinia, Germany begins to send Troops to Italy.

Late May
France and Britain invade Greece, Sardinia falls. Germany sends more troops south.

Mid June
Invasion of Sicily. Operation Barbarossa Canceled, More Germans head south to Greece and Italy.

Decembre 7th - Pearl Harbour [Japan started planning this in 1940 after the Oil Embarrgo, different Europe dosen't change it.]
With the US in --- Germany eventually gets flattened.


?What does this post war would look like?
 

Onkel Willie

WW II is definitely shorter, lasting until 1943 or 1944 at the latest, and perhaps we'll see a three way Cold War. Europe will definitely be stronger and after the war I could see an anti-communist alliance form relatively quickly which is perhaps much more eurocentric since Europe will be in a much stronger position.

Cold War goes as follows: Europe vs. Sino-Soviet bloc vs. USA (with the latter friendly to the former but general not really "present" in European matters and with signicificant objections toward continued colonialism.)
 

Tellus

Banned
The POD of not attacking Russia is one thing, but the assumption that the western allies can whoop Germany on their own is highly unplausible to me. They could hold out hoping the US would eventually help them, but if Germany doesnt attack the Soviets, the western powers will need nukes to retake the Continent in a reasonable timeframe I suspect.

Just as likely is that without their attention in Russia, Germany could mount a war strategy built around the control of the Mediterranean and strike deep enough into the Middle East to ensure the collapse of Churchill's government and a negotiated peace. The attack against the Soviet Union was clearly a disservice to Germany - the only way Barbarossa can be seen as "worth it" in hindsight, is if we assume that Stalin was about to launch is own assault (ie, icebreaker). I do not think this is likely.

Late 40 to 42 was a perfect window for Germany to close the deal of their mastery of the Continent - their strategic decisions ruined that window.
 

Onkel Willie

Tellus said:
The POD of not attacking Russia is one thing, but the assumption that the western allies can whoop Germany on their own is highly unplausible to me. They could hold out hoping the US would eventually help them, but if Germany doesnt attack the Soviets, the western powers will need nukes to retake the Continent in a reasonable timeframe I suspect.

Just as likely is that without their attention in Russia, Germany could mount a war strategy built around the control of the Mediterranean and strike deep enough into the Middle East to ensure the collapse of Churchill's government and a negotiated peace. The attack against the Soviet Union was clearly a disservice to Germany - the only way Barbarossa can be seen as "worth it" in hindsight, is if we assume that Stalin was about to launch is own assault (ie, icebreaker). I do not think this is likely.

Late 40 to 42 was a perfect window for Germany to close the deal of their mastery of the Continent - their strategic decisions ruined that window.
Click to expand...

If France, however, fights on in Africa I don't think a Mediterranean Strategy is possible since Libya will be lost if Italy and the small Africa Corps have to fight a two front war.
 

xchen08

Germany isn't doing a damn thing in the Med with the French military still in the game. Libya will get crushed fast, and the Germans will be restricted solely to Western Europe, and suffering ever increasing resource shortages. Add the fact that even without Barbarossa, Hitler will have to keep the bulk of his army on the East to keep Stalin from attacking, I won't rule out the Allies being able to take this without needing the U.S.
 

world

Banned
If Libya falls to the allies then Italy with German backing will have to take Corsica and Malta to keep the Italian people on side.
After that the Axis will no doubt put their full strength against the Soviets.
War in the East will begin in late May 1941.
The Axis will have more time to campaign in good weather and more transports.
Germany will have 4 more Panzer divisions to deploy against the USSR and 6 more infantry divisions.
Italy will also have far more troops and armour to deploy in the USSR.
This may well be enough to take Moscow.
 

world

Banned
We would likely see Moscow surrounded before the onset of bad weather in the second week of October.
It may well fall before the December counter offensive can make any difference.
 

RGB

world said:
This may well be enough to take Moscow.
Click to expand...

I have this feeling that people don't understand what "taking Moscow" implies. Let's see, it's farther than Stalingrad, better defended, much worse terrain, MASSIVE, and easily resupplied by rail unless completely surrounded.

Even with the German-favourable conditions you mention, taking Moscow is not the most likely of things.
 

world

Banned
RGB said:
I have this feeling that people don't understand what "taking Moscow" implies. Let's see, it's farther than Stalingrad, better defended, much worse terrain, MASSIVE, and easily resupplied by rail unless completely surrounded.

Even with the German-favourable conditions you mention, taking Moscow is not the most likely of things.
Click to expand...

Moscow was not to be attacked until it was surrounded.
 

aktarian

world said:
Moscow was not to be attacked until it was surrounded.
Click to expand...

Which means advancing even fruther east, deploying even more troops first to create the encirclement then to keep it closed. and it's not like soviets would go "meh, one more city on the line, f we loose we can always retreat further east"
 

xchen08

Not to mention Italy's morale will be horrific. They joined at the tail end of the Battle of France hoping to get a freebie, and ended up with no real gains, their colonial empire and all seaborne trade lost, no Greek campaign or any other opportunities for glory/gain, their navy confined to port if not destroyed, and most likely Anglo-French naval raids on the coastline. If they are not careful, they could even see outright invasion of Sardinia and Sicily. Yet somehow, they will happily strip troops from homeland defense to follow Germany into Russia. Hell, it might take a good number of German troops just to keep Mussolini in power.

Not to mention the oddity of a thread with "no Barbarossa" in the title somehow devolving into a talk of how the alt-Barbarossa turns out in just the 10th post.
 

Gosing

world said:
If Libya falls to the allies then Italy with German backing will have to take Corsica and Malta to keep the Italian people on side.
After that the Axis will no doubt put their full strength against the Soviets.
War in the East will begin in late May 1941.
The Axis will have more time to campaign in good weather and more transports.
Germany will have 4 more Panzer divisions to deploy against the USSR and 6 more infantry divisions.
Italy will also have far more troops and armour to deploy in the USSR.
This may well be enough to take Moscow.
Click to expand...

Corsica was already taken, and Malta, already a...questionable prospect in OTL would be safe TTL.

May '41 was prime mud season in the USSR. Blitzkrieg would be rather more difficult-oh, and the scenario postulates that the Allies are invading Sicily, so Italy will probably have horrible morale and require more German forces then OTL.
 

Grimm Reaper

Guys, world is bard so you know there's no point in trying to get past his consistent hostility to the facts, not to mention thread hijacking.


Witness his presenting Germany's Afrika Korps at five times the actual strength, his conclusion that an Italy stripped of the colonial empire and manning the defenses of Sicily and southern Italy while short more than half a million troops will dive in to Barbarossa even more enthusiastically and the war in Greece and Yugoslavia will not happen...for no reason at all.
 

world

Banned
Getting carried away responding to the Russian issue.
If Hitler doesn’t invade Russia he will concentrate on smashing the allied landings in Southern Europe and Sardinia before attacking through Spain or Turkey to get at the allies.
If he doesn’t the Axis will die a slow death.
 

world

Banned
Grimm Reaper said:
Guys, world is bard so you know there's no point in trying to get past his consistent hostility to the facts, not to mention thread hijacking.


Witness his presenting Germany's Afrika Korps at five times the actual strength, his conclusion that an Italy stripped of the colonial empire and manning the defenses of Sicily and southern Italy while short more than half a million troops will dive in to Barbarossa even more enthusiastically and the war in Greece and Yugoslavia will not happen...for no reason at all.
Click to expand...

God you tell some lies dont you.
The Afrika Korps had two Panzer divisions with the logistical capacity for 4.
Im not "bard" who ever he is.
In OTL Mussolini sent 235,000 men to the USSR while maintaining a large force in the Balkans and fighting in North Afrca.
 
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