No Balkan partition : What will trigger The Great War ?

Say that Ottoman Empire managed to repel Russian invasion in 1877-78 war, preventing power vacuum in Balkans for the Great Powers to contest over. Without Balkans, where will be the possible flash point to ignite a general European War ? Belgium ? Transylvania, or Poland ?
 
Not really possible to say. This POD is before the formation of the OTL alliance blocs and the shape those take, assuming they form at all, will determine what the flashpoints are that could trigger war.
 
Germany was already formed by then. The way Germany was formed IOTL antagonized it to both Russia and France and unless we keep Alexander III around for longer, collision is quite easy to happen. For the sake of question, let's keep Russian politics largely OTL.
 
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Given that the assassination of Franz Ferdinand was only the last in a long row of situations which could have spiralled out of control (and probably wouldn't have been the last if it wasn't the trigger). It would only be a question about time before we had a situation that would escalate into a war, given that nearly everyone was sitting around waiting on 'who blinks first'
 
Here's the general situation :
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> Russo-Ottoman War of 1877-78 was won by Ottomans. The cause can be anything, the most cliche PoD used is usually the survival of Huseyin Avni Pasha from assassination a year before the war. That besides the point though. The point being, this victory preserved the status quo in the Balkans before the war, means no Bulgaria, Bosnia remain Ottoman and Serbia remain contained, though it will still become fully independent. Serbia will might foolishly attempt to break the status quo, but here it's in much weaker position.
> No Bulgaria means that nationalism remains reserved for "great" nations only, such as Germans, Russians, Italians, and begrudgingly, Turks. Attempts by ethnic groups still under the rule of any of said countries won't get the momentum and sympathy that OTL saw. Some of those ruled nations though, such as the poles, are just too big, too self-aware and too hostile towards their ruling nation to contend staying non self-ruling indefinitely. While those like Romanians and Greeks which already had their own states will want to "redeem" their still un-liberated brothers under foreign yoke. Greek case is kinda hopeless, unless Ottomans will have a lapse of sanity and attack them first. Romanian one however, not necessarily so, since they'll perceive a reliable backer in Russia once the time comes to get Transylvania. Russia held Bessarabia, sure, but it was distant second or third in their priority list.


I don't see Romania jumping for Transylvania until they can secure Entente support for their cause. Poland, OTOH, was perennially defiant of repressive Russian rule, and Germany had an interest to terminate Russian power before their industrialization really take off. Personally, I place my bet on Poland as the strongest candidate for flash point. Any thoughts though ?
 
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yourworstnightmare

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Might be the Great War is avoided. Ottomans remaining a real power in the region will change the balance of power and create butterflies either way.
 
Two points to say:

Germany was formed in 1871 yes, but Imo the Russians were not realy concearned by it. Because a stable Germany was a counter wight for France and Great Britain. The two "top dogs" of the time. Well Great Britain at least, France had lost much of it's shine.
Than there is Bismarck and his policy of isolating France. Therefore he needed Russia to be somewhat friendly. And it worked in the "Drei Kaiser Abkommen"
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_the_Three_Emperors

The next point is that a lost war WILL have reprecussions for the Russians in political and millitary ways. You may see an other Great Game with the Ottomans included.
And than there is the Russo-Japanese-War...

You simply can not keep the Russians static into the Time of WWI with such butterflys.
 
Might be the Great War is avoided. Ottomans remaining a real power in the region will change the balance of power and create butterflies either way.

I don't see Ottomans remaining strong able to prevent Russo-German war and alliances formed anticipating it. Alexander III could, but it's easy enough to take him out of picture.
 
Two points to say:

Germany was formed in 1871 yes, but Imo the Russians were not realy concearned by it. Because a stable Germany was a counter wight for France and Great Britain. The two "top dogs" of the time. Well Great Britain at least, France had lost much of it's shine.
Than there is Bismarck and his policy of isolating France. Therefore he needed Russia to be somewhat friendly. And it worked in the "Drei Kaiser Abkommen"
See: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/League_of_the_Three_Emperors

The next point is that a lost war WILL have reprecussions for the Russians in political and millitary ways. You may see an other Great Game with the Ottomans included.
And than there is the Russo-Japanese-War...

You simply can not keep the Russians static into the Time of WWI with such butterflys.

The next in lines for throne in both Russia and Germany were kinda hopeless for continued Russo-German friendship. Wilhelm II and Alexander III hated each other personally and the later never liked his father's Germanophilia. And I can't see Alex II live longer in a TL where Russia lost the war. Alex III could've lived much longer without the blunt trauma caused by a random accident that led to his kidney failure, up to 1914 or even 1920 and butterflying WW1 all together, but it's also why it's easy enough to have his death as per OTL.
 
Monarchs "hating" each other is hardly a new thing.

But your statemant to keep Russia as OTL is impossible. Even only the stronger Ottomans will see to that.
The butterflies for the English are there too. The Great Game will have another player. Even if only because of proximity.
That will change diplomacy and millitary spending. Maybe not for two or three years, but at five you got changes.
Because the Russians would be hot to get revange. And the Ottomans, while strengthend, are still one of the weakest factions.
Than you have the Austro-Hungarians. No (or less) middle powers on the Balcans could stabelize the monarchie as there is another external threat keeping the Hungarians and other Minorietys more or less in line.
 
Monarchs hating each other in conservative monarchies matter A LOT in diplomatics. But you raise a good point with budget differences. I've always wondered about that myself. Expenditure and also domestic policies, that should determine their rate of development as well as internal stability. Not a lot of people pay much attention on the effects of Russo-Ottoman War upon Russia that it's hard to determine what will differ there with different war outcome.

Then again, if it does accelerate Russian military modernization and industrialization vis a vis OTL, I can only imagine that Germany will feel even more threatened. And it only takes a Nicholas to get Russia into stupid decisions.
 
The problem is, that at that moment in time 1880 - 1900 the English are the main rival of the Russians, Great Game and all.
Than there is the point that more millitary spending earlier is bad for the civilian spending. I do not know the levels of Russia in that time, but if the millitary is pushed it will alter the industrialisation. For good or bad is anyones guss.
But a better millitary could not only frighten Germany but also Great Britain and Austria-Hungary. That will let lose mass amounts of cute little insects.

And than you could get rather odd pile ups if the Russian Bear threatens Germany, Austria-Hungary and the Ottomans (Straits anyone?). That will spiral into also threatening the English, if only for the Med and India.

France is the least effacted Imo as they will try like OTL to overcome the Bismarkian isolation and cosy up to Russia for countering Germany.
See that in turn could collide them with the English. So no nice little pile up on the Mittelmächte like OTL.

Butterflies after more than ten years are a wriggling mass of possebilitys and desicions other than OTL.
 
I think the general issues will be similar. Minus Balkans power vacuum, German and Russian growth will still threaten each other. A-H will have less pressing minority issues but she will still have reason to fear possible Russian support for Romanian ambition. French fear of Germany as well as revanchism aligns naturally with Russian interest. Britain can wind up towards anyone that doesn't offend or scare her first. Pretty much OTL. No British Egypt since OE will be able to reoccupy Egypt once Mahdist Revolt kicks in, reducing points of frictions with France, but perhaps also with Germany as well since in here Germany won't likely get the opportunity to establish African colonies.

That leaves us with question over possible flash point alternative to Balkans. Violating Belgium's neutrality made sense for Germany's strategic PoV, but I think the first shot will still be fired in the east.
 
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I mostly agree that the Alliances could/should stay mostly the same.

Austria-Hungary and Germany had a strong common ground in history and peoples, at least the Austrian part.

France and Russia are somewhat more complicated, because the French used and financed the Russians for their own ends. Nothing new for Nations, but something that can change rather easy.
But ok. they have commen ground against Germany and her alliance.

The Ottomans would undoubtly be stronger in this. I doubt on any level like other European powers but better. (Could be worse if the Balcans blow up later.) And the most likely continued rivalry with Russia could have flared up here and there again. Nothing dramatic but enough to keep on each others throats.
Than there is the Suez-Chanel and the Straits. I doubt the British would like to "offend" the owner. So a better Ottoman-English understanding is certainly in the cards.
That leads to the German position. In OTL there were strong liks between the Ottomans and Germany. So I can see them here again. Possibley even faster entry into the fry than OTL, if not the reason.

The English are the joker. The colonial race will go under way like OTL, most likely. So the friction will be there. But If Bismark and the Prime Mionister of the Day can come to an understanding against Russian rising influence. I see rather better relations. Esp. if rather unsavorie comments of the English do not materialise around the Boer War.
That was a rather hard point to swallow for the Germans and directly influenced the Kaiserlich Marine and Tirpitz. So maybe no Naval Cold War.
Than there are the Straits and Suez-Chanel. Important for the English and in the Hand of the Ottomans. So rather good relations are important for them there and could also cross invluence the relations to Germany.

Germany in this is certainly trieing to keep one or the other of the Drei Kaiser League. Probably the Austrians. If possible that could lead to an other Ausglaich because o stronger Russian influence. The Germans certainly would hate to lose both. So continued good relations to Viena are a must. And with the rapprochment between France and Russia a closer understanding with England is in the Crads if they both feel threatend by the bigger Russian Bear (real or not).

Italy is also a rather important player in this, the wars with the Ottomans could be a victim to butterlies, or not. But in OTL they were dependent on the English and nominal members of the Mittelmächte, go figure...
But here the situation could change dramaticaly or not. Depends mainly on the Ottomans. And France as well as the Italians had an axe to gring here too. So open in the long run of the PoD.

Americans? Unimportant at this stage of inter european wrangling. Sorry :D
 
Say that Ottoman Empire managed to repel Russian invasion in 1877-78 war, preventing power vacuum in Balkans for the Great Powers to contest over. Without Balkans, where will be the possible flash point to ignite a general European War ? Belgium ? Transylvania, or Poland ?

The Balkans would still remain a potential flashpoint for, at the very least, a medium-sized war. It's just that the increased Ottoman presence in the region would make for slightly different circumstances and a potentially different set of alliances in such a war.

As for Transylvania, Romania's King Carol I Hohenzollern-Sigmaringen was fond of his relatives and consequently the German Empire, so unless Berlin and Vienna fall out, he's unlikely to let Romania be aligned against Austria-Hungary. Of course, he won't reign forever, but he might still be around as late as 1914.
>No Bulgaria means that nationalism remains reserved for "great" nations only, such as Germans, Russians, Italians, and begrudgingly, Turks. Attempts by ethnic groups still under the rule of any of said countries won't get the momentum and sympathy that OTL saw.

Why do you think the failure of the Bulgarian insurrection would cause such a huge shift in political discourse and ideas? Aside from the Bulgarians, who, while subjugated for the short term, won't be easily deterred from their struggle, there are many other minorities in the Ottoman, Russian and other empires who might rise up. Sympathy for that sort of thing with the "great powers" will, naturally, be conditioned by the needs of realpolitik, but it's not just going to disappear.
 
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