No austronesians

I know this is going to be quite huge, but let’s suppose the Austronesian languages don’t exist or just stay confined to Taiwan. What might Oceania, Madagascar, and the Malay archipelago be like if there was no Austronesian migration? How might culture and other things change? What language family might take their place? How will the culture of Indonesia and the Philippines change?
 
Without an Austronesian migration, a very large part of what we call Oceania would most likely be uninhabited. The Austronesian migration past the Solomon Islands not occurring may butterfly the Melanesian expansion to Vanuatu, New Caledonia and Fiji If they don't have agriculture introduced by another source, the Solomons and New Guinea may not see the population growth necessary to fuel the colonial expansion which drove them westward IOTL. With no one to fill the gap of OTL's Polynesians, everything between the coast of South America and the Solomons remains untouched by humans.

Madagascar IMO is still colonized by Africans. I don't know if Arab or Indian merchants would be tempted to settle this desert island, so it's possible that there is no Asian influence to fill in the gap left by the Austronesian cultures ITTL, and Madagascar is thus more recognizably culturally similar to its mainland neighbors. Lack of Austronesian agriculture and later settlement could also mean that the island is more sparsely populated, though perhaps whatever Austronesian crops are lacking could be introduced from elsewhere.
 
I know this is going to be quite huge, but let’s suppose the Austronesian languages don’t exist or just stay confined to Taiwan.
...You forgot the Chinese provinces of Fujian and Zhejiang (including southern Jiangsu), FYI.

By the way, I thought of an expansion/migration of some Austroasiatic groups to western parts of Maritime Southeast Asia, for example: Aslian to the rest of Nusantara domain and Bahnaric to the Philippines and certain parts of Borneo, while Celebes and Moluccas would be settled by people speaking West Papuan languages (e.g. OTL languages of Ternate and Tidore).
 
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Without the Austronesian expansion, Luzon would have a different language group, perhaps something related to the Ainus and the Papuans.
 
For SE Asia, latter invaders like Tai-Kadai, Mon-Khmer, Sino-Tibetan and Hmong-Mien people might replace Negritos as dominant people in the region.
If the theory that connected the Tai-Kadai and Austronesians linguistically and genetically were indeed beyond doubt, their existence would be probably butterflied away.
 
Contrary to popular belief there were many negrito/melanesian like populations that were sailing around East Asia.

I mean they were literally the basis of ISEA sailing and maritime culture given the evidence of Timor and the migration to the Bismarcks etc... Long before Austronesians.

Secondly, the Out of Taiwan theory is very much debated. I'm more align with Oppenheimer and others. Taiwan had an early offshoot of Austronesians migrate there, though funny enough one tribe there has a negrito story and do a blackface ceremony every year to commemorate them.

Thirdly, Madagascar is very complicated in it's migration history. I'm one to side with Charles EM Pierce who while a bit heavy-handed in indigenous oral history time and time again also shows how Western narratives don't mesh well with genetic findings.

Malagasy mtdna has the Malagasy Motif a derivative of the Polynesian motif which is rare, even in Eastern Indonesia. We also have the understanding of a small genetic female founding population.

He is of the belief that there was a small population of people already settled there and the men being killed off. This happened with various people.

I'm more of the opinion of Proto-Malagasy being somewhere on the northern littoral edge of the Indian ocean (Chagos, Laccadives, Maladives long ago before Indian migration) and then the menmen be killed off by Banjar and Dayak sailors who migrated with the women further east.

Anyways regardless of all that migration could and would take place Austronesians or not.
 
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Also "Was there once a zone of Vegeculture linking Melanesia to Northeast India" is an interesting paper by Roger Blench.

Oh and my Negrito sailor talking point is in the book Early Exhange between Africa and Wider Indian Ocean world.
 
Also "Was there once a zone of Vegeculture linking Melanesia to Northeast India" is an interesting paper by Roger Blench.

Oh and my Negrito sailor talking point is in the book Early Exhange between Africa and Wider Indian Ocean world.

Thanks for giving some sources. Maybe I'll look into those.
 
I do wonder what other group could take their place. Maybe an australiod/negroto group like what Revachah said. Dravidians are also likely.
Austro-Asiatic or Thai people could take their place. But if those regions are left empty, they might become an another settler colony like Australia, NZ, Canada, etc.

Dravidians are too far and there are too many natural barriers. Australian aborigines would need some push to get off into other lands, which could be quite unlikely.

Another one would be a South Indian kingdom colonizing these lands(these aren't Dravidian as the ruling class all spoke Sanskrit and related languages).
 
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I believe that before the Autronesian expansion, Papuan groups were beginning to settle and introduce their agriculture to the west. ITTL the Moluccas, Timor, Sulawesi, etc will all have much greater Papuan influence.

Pre-Austronesian ethnic groups like the Negritos will survive in a larger area.

Madagascar would probably be settled by Bantu from mainland Africa.

I can't see the Papuans ever going further east than New Caledonia and Vanuatu, and even those might not be settled.

Micronesian islands like Palau and the Marianas might be settled by Negritos from the Philippines.

The ramifications of an empty Polynesia will be very interesting, especially with the larger island groups.

I can imagine that places such as Samoa, Hawai`i and Fiji will be colonised earlier than OTL, and when the Europeans (assuming European colonisation isn't butterflied away) arive they will set up plantations with indentured servants from Asia. Kind of like what happened in Fiji and Hawai`i OTL, but with no indigenous people. Tropical Polynesia will probably look something like the Mascarenes today, a multi-ethnic, recently settled, small island society.

New Zealand will be very interesting too. European colonisation will probably be a bit slower due to the lack of trade partners, and maybe some now extinct species will survive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vazimba

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Menehune

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nawao

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negrito

There might be pygmy negritos who predate Austronesian peoples in those places. they hunter-gatherers with rather limited food package that easily outcompeted by later invaders. For SE Asia, latter invaders like Tai-Kadai, Mon-Khmer, Sino-Tibetan and Hmong-Mien people might replace Negritos as dominant people in the region.

If they existed, the Menehune and Nawao would have been Austronesian. I'm of the belief that they were probably from the Marquesas, and the modern Kanaka Maoli were later Tahitian settlers.
 
Wait a minute, weren't bananas introduced to mainland Africa by way of the Austronesians? If so, this could have very interesting ramifications in Africa.
 
I believe that before the Autronesian expansion, Papuan groups were beginning to settle and introduce their agriculture to the west. ITTL the Moluccas, Timor, Sulawesi, etc will all have much greater Papuan influence.

Pre-Austronesian ethnic groups like the Negritos will survive in a larger area.

Madagascar would probably be settled by Bantu from mainland Africa.

I can't see the Papuans ever going further east than New Caledonia and Vanuatu, and even those might not be settled.

Micronesian islands like Palau and the Marianas might be settled by Negritos from the Philippines.

The ramifications of an empty Polynesia will be very interesting, especially with the larger island groups.

I can imagine that places such as Samoa, Hawai`i and Fiji will be colonised earlier than OTL, and when the Europeans (assuming European colonisation isn't butterflied away) arive they will set up plantations with indentured servants from Asia. Kind of like what happened in Fiji and Hawai`i OTL, but with no indigenous people. Tropical Polynesia will probably look something like the Mascarenes today, a multi-ethnic, recently settled, small island society.

New Zealand will be very interesting too. European colonisation will probably be a bit slower due to the lack of trade partners, and maybe some now extinct species will survive.



If they existed, the Menehune and Nawao would have been Austronesian. I'm of the belief that they were probably from the Marquesas, and the modern Kanaka Maoli were later Tahitian settlers.
I wonder how their culture might be like.
 
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