No Ausrtria-Hungary

In 1866 a year after the Austria Empire was defeat in the Seven Weeks War by the hands of the Prussians, Austria formed the Dual Monarchy and renamed the country the Austrian-Hungrian Empire to satisfy the Hungrians, demands for greater freedoms within the Empire. But what if they hadn't? Would the Hungrains revolt and if so would the empire shatter completly or would it just be split between Austria and Hungry. How would Austria's nieghbors react?
 
Well going from memory the Croatians and the Transylvanians all fought to help put down the Hungarians in the recent past, but that's what happens when you're a bunch of repressive chauvinistic nationalist arseholes, so I can't really see them going with them voluntarily. Before the Augsleich the Principality of Transylvania was a distinct separate entity, and the relationship between Hungary and the Kingdoms of Croatia and Slavonia was a bit complicated but I'm fairly sure they were still technically independent. The problem is that during the Hungarian revolution of 1848 their twelfth demand was Union (with Transylvania) so they might not want to give it up. I can't see the Empire shattering however, the other constituant parts just don't have the levels of nationalism necessary I'd say.

If the Hungarians revolt and the Austrians can't fully suppress them or simply decide they're not worth the effort I could easily see them kicking them out but keeping Croatia-Slavonia, making Hungary a land-locked nation surrounded by Austria and the Ottoman Empire. A suitable punishment for them I think. :) Having the Hungarians beat enough to accept not getting the principality as well as losing Croatia-Slavonia but not being weak enough to be fully beat might be tricky but do-able. Both sides did not so nice stuff during the revolution in 1848 so I think it would mostly come down to the Austrians eventually deciding 'Sod it, it's not worth it' to bother with the Hungarians and let them go their own way, getting Franz Joseph to agree to that without intervention from Bob the ASB could be... tricky.
 
The best way to avoid this is to have Prussia get stomped at Sadowa. If the Austro-Hungarians actually win a major war for a change this solves a lot of Franz Josef's issues for at least the short term all by itself.
 
If the Austrians are defeated by the Prussians and then if they can't suppress a second Hungarian revolution (and if the Russians aren't inclined to intervene, again) then Austria is brought into the German fold while the newly christened Hungarian empire takes over the rest of the former Hapburgs constituent parts. Croatia and Transylvania are a must for Budapest; there's no way Vienna holds onto or secure those areas' independence if they can't even hold the Danube.
 
Originally posted by wolf_brother
and if the Russians aren't inclined to intervene, again

The Russians will not intervene. They are pissed off with Austria because they feel Frany Josef betrayed them during the Crimean War.
 
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