No August 1941 Leningrad offensive

  • Thread starter Deleted member 1487
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Well, according to the wiki article on the Siege of Leningrad the city produced 11% of Soviet industrial production by 1939 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siege_of_Leningrad, although the figure obviously doesn't take into account evacuation.
6,000 enterprises were relocated to the Urals. More than 210 from Moscow. 92 for Leningrad. The gross output of Moscow reached as low as 621 million rubles one month and for Leningrad it went as low as 1.4 billion rubles one month in 1942. In contrast the Urals was 26 billion rubles in 1942 and 31 billion rubles in 1943.

@wiking I think that third map is July and not August. At the beginning of August I think the 29th army no longer was there and was apart of the Dukhovshchina offensive and the 4th panzer army and Guderian were being attacked by Zhukov (replaced Bogdanov I think) and Timonshenko.

But that is not to say German forces couldn't feasibly still take Moscow at this point.

Edit; Please disregard where I mixed up Guderians panzer army with the 4th panzer army. Guderian had 2nd. His fellow officer Hoth had the 4th panzer army.
 
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Deleted member 1487

6,000 enterprises were relocated to the Urals. More than 210 from Moscow. 92 for Leningrad. The gross output of Moscow reached as low as 621 million rubles one month and for Leningrad it went as low as 1.4 billion rubles one month in 1942. In contrast the Urals was 26 billion rubles in 1942 and 31 billion rubles in 1943.
When did those relocations happen? What month was the bottom of Moscow production? We're more interested in Leningrad production prior to the encirclement and late 1941 evacuations because they wouldn't likely happen if the Germans don't attack in the direction beyond July. Plus the Urals in 1942-43 got even more evacuations from the Stalingrad/East Ukraine area and major Lend-Lease buffs.

@wiking I think that third map is July and not August. At the beginning of August I think the 29th army no longer was there and was apart of the Dukhovshchina offensive
Without 3rd Panzer army being sent north to assault 22nd army and aid in the assault on Leningrad, plus VIII air corps being pushed north for that same mission (and helping with Staraya Russa) then 3rd Panzer army with air support would be available to hit 29th army and potentially wipe it out on the offensive.
 
You are hinting that you somehow think that the destruction of 29th Army is the Philosopher's Stone that will permit the Third Reich to take Moscow and defeat the Soviet Union. It was another of those pint sized "armies" that the Soviets hobbled together in the summer of 1941. End of Sept it had 4 rifle divisions (all of the reduced heavy weapons revised ORBAT), a motor rifle brigade, 2 independent heavy artillery regiments and some independent battalions. In open terrain a Panzer Corps would quickly obliterate one of those. However here is what W. Haupt has to say in Army Group North about what was between AGN and AGC then

"From here they had no contact with Army Group Center, only swamp, forest, lakes and more swamp."
 
When did those relocations happen? What month was the bottom of Moscow production? We're more interested in Leningrad production prior to the encirclement and late 1941 evacuations because they wouldn't likely happen if the Germans don't attack in the direction beyond July. Plus the Urals in 1942-43 got even more evacuations from the Stalingrad/East Ukraine area and major Lend-Lease buffs.

Without 3rd Panzer army being sent north to assault 22nd army and aid in the assault on Leningrad, plus VIII air corps being pushed north for that same mission (and helping with Staraya Russa) then 3rd Panzer army with air support would be available to hit 29th army and potentially wipe it out on the offensive.

Moscow, Gorki, the Urals, but also Leningrad were prewar industrial centers. Leningrad was one-tenth the industrial ouput of the USSR. However, three-quarters of the industrial equipment was relocated. In 1943, the whole year, gross output was under 4 billion rubles. It took until 1949 to reach prewar levels again. The process for Moscow and Leningrad relocating industry began in July at least according to Sanford Lieberman but Voznesensky seems to hint towards August I think.

Just to note, on your 2nd map the 29th army is no longer there. The third map is from July but the 29th army is not placed there at this point. It is under Timoshenkos command, though. At the time of Typhoon 29th army is in between 30th and 22nd. Look at the pictures in Glantz 'Barbarossa Derailed'. On 8th August, it goes 22nd Army to 30th army. On 12 August, Timoshenko changes it so it goes 22nd Army to 29th army to 30th army. Incidentally, I think that is the day the Soviet 34th, 11th and 27th armies attack at Staraya.

Of course your map shows the German forces tried to advance through the Valdai Hills but only got to Demyansk (and it took a while I think). In my opinion in order to stop the Smolensk counterattacks you do exactly what nearly everyone involved except Hitler wanted to do. Reverse August 4, Hitler's decision and Borisov and you are still on the path to Moscow. You hopefully preempt the Smolensk counterattacks with an attack of your own and continue the advance to Moscow. Though, how long the earliest such an attack could happen is a question, but it would not be past August according to Jodl. You could even just do a Vyazma pocket early and not even move on Moscow immediately. If you were to attack through the Valdai Hills then maybe it should be accompanied by another pincer to the south. This way you could pocket 22nd, 29th, and 30th armies.
 

Deleted member 1487

You are hinting that you somehow think that the destruction of 29th Army is the Philosopher's Stone that will permit the Third Reich to take Moscow and defeat the Soviet Union.
Then you're inferring too much from what I'm saying. I'm asking what different that would make, as it would divert Soviet attention away from their punishing attacks on German infantry of AG-Center during August-September and would alter Operation Typhoon when that would play out; it wouldn't necessarily end with 29th army either in August-September, 3rd Panzer army with VIII air corps support could launch several such army attacks and even destroy 30th army in the same period, seriously altering the strategic/operational context of Operation Typhoon.

It was another of those pint sized "armies" that the Soviets hobbled together in the summer of 1941.
Sure, several of which were destroyed in October without Moscow falling...but we are talking about the differences that would result from it's and potentially other such armies being targeted and destroyed by 3rd Panzer army in August-September as they launch their historical offensives toward Smolensk:
http://www.armchairgeneral.com/rkkaww2/maps/maps1941W.htm
smol-og.gif


End of Sept it had 4 rifle divisions (all of the reduced heavy weapons revised ORBAT), a motor rifle brigade, 2 independent heavy artillery regiments and some independent battalions. In open terrain a Panzer Corps would quickly obliterate one of those. However here is what W. Haupt has to say in Army Group North about what was between AGN and AGC then

"From here they had no contact with Army Group Center, only swamp, forest, lakes and more swamp."
That fails to note the impact of the 27th, 22nd, and 29th armies had on the German army group seem between north and center (from north to south). IOTL the Germans spent August and part of September sending parts of 4th and 3rd Panzer armies to nearly destroy 27th and 22nd armies and ravage 29th army (among others in the Staraya Russa counteroffensive). If that seam was nothing but wilderness than the attacks of these armies wouldn't have mattered, which in Barbarossa Derailed Volume 2 David Glantz points out otherwise, and we'd have no justification for why the Germans sent considerable forces in August-September attacking them to secure that seam.
 

Deleted member 1487

Moscow, Gorki, the Urals, but also Leningrad were prewar industrial centers. Leningrad was one-tenth the industrial ouput of the USSR. However, three-quarters of the industrial equipment was relocated. In 1943, the whole year, gross output was under 4 billion rubles. It took until 1949 to reach prewar levels again. The process for Moscow and Leningrad relocating industry began in July at least according to Sanford Lieberman but Voznesensky seems to hint towards August I think.

Just to note, on your 2nd map the 29th army is no longer there. The third map is from July but the 29th army is not placed there at this point. It is under Timoshenkos command, though. At the time of Typhoon 29th army is in between 30th and 22nd. Look at the pictures in Glantz 'Barbarossa Derailed'. On 8th August, it goes 22nd Army to 30th army. On 12 August, Timoshenko changes it so it goes 22nd Army to 29th army to 30th army. Incidentally, I think that is the day the Soviet 34th, 11th and 27th armies attack at Staraya.

Of course your map shows the German forces tried to advance through the Valdai Hills but only got to Demyansk (and it took a while I think). In my opinion in order to stop the Smolensk counterattacks you do exactly what nearly everyone involved except Hitler wanted to do. Reverse August 4, Hitler's decision and Borisov and you are still on the path to Moscow. You hopefully preempt the Smolensk counterattacks with an attack of your own and continue the advance to Moscow. Though, how long the earliest such an attack could happen is a question, but it would not be past August according to Jodl. You could even just do a Vyazma pocket early and not even move on Moscow immediately. If you were to attack through the Valdai Hills then maybe it should be accompanied by another pincer to the south. This way you could pocket 22nd, 29th, and 30th armies.
The 29th army never really changed position from what I can tell, the designation might have changed. The Germans didn't try to advance through the Valdai Hills AFAIK they anchored their lines there as a defensive position to hold the flank during Typhoon. The pressing question is what could 3rd Panzer Group achieve on it's own in August as 2nd Panzer headed to Kiev and 4th Panzer dealt with Staraya Russa and 22nd army at the border of the army groups. Perhaps coordinated actions by 4th and 3rd Panzer groups against 22nd, 29th, and 30th armies could have resulted in a pocket in August-September and really secure the flanks, thinning out Soviet lines and creating a situation for a quicker, easier push in October against Moscow.

Edit:
Here is the situation map from August 8th from Barbarossa Derailed. On the August 12th map the Soviet 29th army shows up again, seems just to have been a weird omission on the part of German situation maps. A coordinated action by 1 Panzer corps from 4th Panzer Group with 3rd Panzer Group against 22nd and 29th armies would have a serious opportunity to destroy both in early-mid August in this scenario, securing the flanks of both army groups and freeing up substantial elements of 9th army and 3rd Panzer group to operate further against 30th army's flank as well as forcing the Soviet West Front to commit reserves and their attention against the situation in the north and not bash against the the German 9th, 4th, and 2nd Panzer Armies, inflicting substantial damage on them in the process. It would also do what was done historically, but weeks earlier and leaves the Germans with a lot more strength to continue operations from late August into September against Soviet West Front Forces, plus then let's 4th Panzer Group move south earlier to help.

aug8th.jpg
 
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