Let’s just say the Allied fleets are not destroyed at the beginning of war, meaning there is no attack on Pearl Harbor, no Fall of Singapore, no destruction of Force Z, and Macarthur follows pre war procedures and holds the Philippines. Does the Dutch East Indies still fall?
No attack on Pearl Harbor, no Fall of Philippines, no Fall of Singapore, does Dutch East Indies still fall?
- Thread starter Admiral Bloonbeard
- Start date
raharris1973
Gone Fishin'
If the Japanese still try for DEI? I think they can occupy the territory at their peak, but the Allies are positioned to roll them back at their leisure. It will still take the US and UK many months to be able set up full interdiction from DEI to Japan and even more for reconquest of DEI (and they have other priorities), but the US and UK's ability to defend its Far East positions (except Hongkong) improves every day they are not attacked.
In the DEI itself, tactically speaking, the Japanese can get footholds in the nearest parts by launching from Indochina, Hainan and the Mandates, and then leapfrog onto their next DEI objectives. They have the aircraft, landing forces, and surface forces to overrun the islands in a few months in succession by throwing everything they have at it.
They'll have more combat power than the Dutch. The British and Americans can inject some small amounts of combat power into certain local engagements in the DEI, but won't be able to outmatch the Japanese. The Japanese will have to be on guard against Anglo-American forces (more Anglo than American), but the Anglo-American forces in the region will have to also guard their own forces and will be on long tenuous supply lines from the metropole. The fact that the British and American fleets aren't preemptively attacked, sunk or defeated will leave Dutch morale higher than OTL and attempting resistance for longer, but they are going to be losing ground and forces in combat fast with all the Japanese attention they're getting.
In the DEI itself, tactically speaking, the Japanese can get footholds in the nearest parts by launching from Indochina, Hainan and the Mandates, and then leapfrog onto their next DEI objectives. They have the aircraft, landing forces, and surface forces to overrun the islands in a few months in succession by throwing everything they have at it.
They'll have more combat power than the Dutch. The British and Americans can inject some small amounts of combat power into certain local engagements in the DEI, but won't be able to outmatch the Japanese. The Japanese will have to be on guard against Anglo-American forces (more Anglo than American), but the Anglo-American forces in the region will have to also guard their own forces and will be on long tenuous supply lines from the metropole. The fact that the British and American fleets aren't preemptively attacked, sunk or defeated will leave Dutch morale higher than OTL and attempting resistance for longer, but they are going to be losing ground and forces in combat fast with all the Japanese attention they're getting.
So are the attacks on the Philippines and Malaya still launched but unsuccessful? In that case I very much doubt that the DEI will fall. The Japanese didn't start attacking Dutch positions until they had secured their LOCs by neutralising or taking over American and British bases. In fact, the Japanese didn't declare war on the Netherlands for several weeks.
Now it is very much possible that the Japanese try for a different approach after the dust settles. There would be many more allied units available for the defense of the DEI though, and I doubt they would reach Java.
Will they have enough oil for a long war? What happens after the Japanese run out of oil?
Depends how long. They have 9 months. Between the damage to the DEI oil facilities (which varied from absolute to minimal) and the failure to protect the Japanese oil shipments back to the main islands the Japanese high command must have been disappointed by what they could import OTL anyway.
SwampTiger
Banned
No. The Japanese cannot effectively defend the shipping lines. Subs based in the Philippines, Malaya, New Britain and Singapore will threaten Japanese shipping. In the west, Japan may gain some victories. However, it will cause a greater and earlier effort to arm by Australia and New Zealand. ANZAC forces in the Middle East will be coming home quickly. Bases on Rabaul, Timor, Borneo, New Britain and New Guinea will be reinforced earlier and with greater numbers. Airbases on these islands will pound the IJN and convoys, as well as Japanese invasion forces. BritaIn and France were allied with the Netherlands at this time. An attack on one is an attack on all.The USA will probably enter at this point.
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